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The Ledge Storm 19-20 Feb


Solution Man
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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ok.  All we have to do is hope that the NAM has led the way over vastly superior medium range models!

Should be easily livin

It’s like picking the 5 star Palm restaurant or the zero yelp star Arby’s down by the docks where you don’t see any cats. And you go with the Arby’s 

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But also, and I'm being serious and also hopecasting:
Aren't the mesoscale models. better and picking up changes better in the short range?  Or is that just something we say to each to cope?

If the Nam showed this and turned our snow into a rainstorm which it’s done many a time we would be in a panic
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1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Scrolling through the 500 maps between all the models the NAM isn’t *that* different.  I think this just illustrates that the changes to make this big aren’t that large. 

I was just doing the same thing on TT (at least between GFS / NAM).  Agreed, it looks to my weenie eyes that the NAM has a slightly sharper ss s/w and a touch more phasing.  

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Ok ya it’s the NAM. I wish it was annything else. But it’s doing what I said the mid and upper level pattern should look like at the surface. Focusing more on the wave among the arctic front which pulls everything north further east. 
 

Images from my post last night about what changes I expected to see.  Now if we can get everything else to come around maybe.  Can’t believe I’m on a team with JB and the NAM. Shoot me now. 
IMG_7381.thumb.png.fed1327ee7a0379ace3ebe73a21b3d2b.png

IMG_7380.thumb.png.9a3c7c5d3348d8e567d4b715ec3bd8aa.png

IMG_7382.thumb.png.73c8c31f69d84d2ef606be4c3aa84aa7.png

 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok ya it’s the NAM. I wish it was annything else. But it’s doing what I said the mid and upper level pattern should look like at the surface. Focusing more on the wave among the arctic front which pulls everything north further east. 
 

Images from my post last night about what changes I expected to see.  Now if we can get everything else to come around maybe.  Can’t believe I’m on a team with JB and the NAM. Shoot me now. 
IMG_7381.thumb.png.fed1327ee7a0379ace3ebe73a21b3d2b.png

IMG_7380.thumb.png.9a3c7c5d3348d8e567d4b715ec3bd8aa.png

IMG_7382.thumb.png.73c8c31f69d84d2ef606be4c3aa84aa7.png

 

Since NAM is a mesoscale model, maybe it’s seeing something that globals aren’t seeing wrt gulf moisture and latent heating putting the slp track north. LWX alluded to this in the afternoon AFD. 

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