*Flash* Posted Tuesday at 01:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:10 PM 54 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: The air this morning has that smell to it. I thought the same thing! And that was even as I took the garbage out. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
housemtnTN Posted Tuesday at 01:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:12 PM 54 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: The air this morning has that smell to it. Yes! I don't know how to describe it but it smells like snow, not figuratively, but my family always told me I was crazy there was no such thing lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 01:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:16 PM @Holston_River_Rambler here’s the GRAF. Something i didn’t notice is how fast this system is moving. Looks like about 10 to 12 hours of precipitation for Knox…. https://twitter.com/scweather_wx/status/1891797000464613444?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 01:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:17 PM 6 minutes ago, *Flash* said: I thought the same thing! And that was even as I took the garbage out. 4 minutes ago, housemtnTN said: Yes! I don't know how to describe it but it smells like snow, not figuratively, but my family always told me I was crazy there was no such thing lol. To me it smells like a heated up dryer sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 01:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:19 PM 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: @Holston_River_Rambler here’s the GRAF. Something i didn’t notice is how fast this system is moving. Looks like about 10 to 12 hours of precipitation for Knox…. https://twitter.com/scweather_wx/status/1891797000464613444?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg @Carvers Gapi still can’t get tweets to work for me. What part of that address do I need to change? I took X out and put Twitter in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Co Vol Posted Tuesday at 01:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:28 PM 8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: @Carvers Gapi still can’t get tweets to work for me. What part of that address do I need to change? I took X out and put Twitter in. The link worked for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 01:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:40 PM 10 minutes ago, Jeff Co Vol said: The link worked for me. What I mean is the link will get you to the page. My issue is the full tweet isn’t showing up on this board like normal. All I see is the URL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Tuesday at 01:58 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:58 PM 17 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: What I mean is the link will get you to the page. My issue is the full tweet isn’t showing up on this board like normal. All I see is the URL. Try his blogs https://x.com/Daniel_Bonds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted Tuesday at 02:33 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 02:33 PM Hrrr and nam finally seeing the significance of the ULL passage. In my experience when you see NW events with moisture into the 700mb layer it typically ends up being a pretty significant event. 3km nam has 20-30knt of 850 flow and temps in the teens during these frames. It would stack on quickly. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted Tuesday at 02:34 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 02:34 PM Areas west of the valley cash in tmrw morning. Don't get frustrated when tmrw the valley and points east struggle with precip and downslope issues. our show comes as the flow backs and that Vort swings through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:43 PM 7 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Areas west of the valley cash in tmrw morning. Don't get frustrated when tmrw the valley and points east struggle with precip and downslope issues. our show comes as the flow backs and that Vort swings through. John getting blanked by that crap model. Yeah, right, lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:46 PM 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Looks like MRX went with the NBM for that map: Yeah, you can see the hrrr and nam 3k within it. Take those out of the Equation and the Great Valley would be beefier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 03:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:50 PM I’m just having a hard time seeing what’s going on out west, knowing temps are not an issue, at least for 40 and north, seeing we have ok saturation throughout the column and trying to believe this system is only gonna spit out .10 to .20 at the most? I know the system about a month ago was generally a 2”-4” snow in the valley but how often do you see a decent slider with a backside wave with potential high ratios and we only get an inch or two? Outside of NW flow events, how often do we see 1” of snow in the valley? Typically it’s all or nothing here, a flizzard or 6”. Ok… soapbox over. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Tuesday at 04:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:06 PM @PowellVolz yeah wrt speed, some of the models have it out of my area by 10 am or so. I would definitely take an earlier onset tonight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 04:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:09 PM GFS showing around 6" Total here. ARW WRF showing around 6". GDPS about 6". So, it's the usual Debbie downer nam 3k and HRRR that's the low enders. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted Tuesday at 04:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:25 PM Looks like this system is starting to crank up in eastern OK and western AR… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:38 PM The 3k NAM and most of the CAMs we look at have actually gotten some better today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:31 PM 2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: John getting blanked by that crap model. Yeah, right, lol. I'm actually in the 3-4 inches but that blank area is the Cross Mountain downslope area it always overdoes by a mile. That area of CC is the high ridges around Norris Lake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:31 PM 16z HRRR is starting to show more snow accumulation further south into Mississippi. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:34 PM The EURO, which still won't shock me at all if it's right, unfortunately, is one of the big factors in the NBM being so low. It's a desert again. The UKIE is also very dry. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:36 PM Really hoping the mods are over doing the downsloping into the valley. It would really help me if the flow was more W to E. That would give my area a little more time to allow lift to kick back in. NW to SE is a killer for my area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Tuesday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:45 PM Really hoping the mods are over doing the downsloping into the valley. It would really help me if the flow was more W to E. That would give my area a little more time to allow lift to kick back in. NW to SE is a killer for my area. Same here if the direction is more westerly I can actually get flow snow. WNW works for me but NW doesn't I think because with NW I'm in the shadow of Hinch Mountain the highest point in Cumberland County, I am due SE of it by about 10 miles. If the flow is more westerly that shadow shifts north of me just enough. Even NNW I tend to get some flow snow but not as good as WNW.Something really feels off to me about this storm. Start time for most will be during the coldest part of the day, my ground has been frozen the last few mornings and shaded areas have remained frozen solid even during the day. Last night I was forecast low of 29 but got to 25. Something just feels off about MRX forecast feels almost too cautious. At least for my area which is northern edge of the southern valley. My area also Sweetwater and Madisonville even Athens don't always fit "southern valley" forecasts like Chatty and Cleveland for instance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Tuesday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:50 PM Weatherbell is down for me, so probably not much from me until either that comes back up or SREFs finish around 230 pm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:52 PM I will say this on obs and it may not mean anything on the downstream effect. Areas of Missouri that reported an inch on the ground at 10:30 their time, 11:30 est, are shown on the 12z Euro as being under an inch at 1:00pm est. Joplin Missouri has gotten 4 inches from what I can tell and currently has heavy snow and 11. Per the 12z Euro they should be at .9 inches as of 1pm. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 05:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:55 PM To add to what I said above, the RGEM has Joplin with 4 inches at 1:00pm est and it's going to be correct or slightly under by the look of things. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 06:20 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:20 PM 24 minutes ago, John1122 said: I will say this on obs and it may not mean anything on the downstream effect. Areas of Missouri that reported an inch on the ground at 10:30 their time, 11:30 est, are shown on the 12z Euro as being under an inch at 1:00pm est. Joplin Missouri has gotten 4 inches from what I can tell and currently has heavy snow and 11. Per the 12z Euro they should be at .9 inches as of 1pm. It makes you wonder if the Euro is not getting the Data from some area's. Why does it continue under forecasting Precip amounts.?. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:34 PM 10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: It makes you wonder if the Euro is not getting the Data from some area's. Why does it continue under forecasting Precip amounts.?. I don't know, but it looks like the GFS is also running behind on totals in similar fashion in that area. The Euro gives Joplin area around 7 inches total. NWS is forecasting up to 14 inches there currently. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:36 PM 1 minute ago, John1122 said: I don't know, but it looks like the GFS is also running behind on totals in similar fashion in that area. The Euro gives Joplin area around 7 inches total. NWS is forecasting up to 14 inches there currently. With Atmospheric Tools available it just doesn't add up to why they're that far off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted Tuesday at 06:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:41 PM 7 minutes ago, John1122 said: I don't know, but it looks like the GFS is also running behind on totals in similar fashion in that area. The Euro gives Joplin area around 7 inches total. NWS is forecasting up to 14 inches there currently. I guess all we can do is hope a small fraction of that can translate downstream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 06:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:46 PM 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: I don't know, but it looks like the GFS is also running behind on totals in similar fashion in that area. The Euro gives Joplin area around 7 inches total. NWS is forecasting up to 14 inches there currently. so what you are saying is we are guaranteed to get double what the mods are saying…… 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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