2/19-2/20 Miller A Magic?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here is the latest GRAF animation and yeah @PowellVolz I think this is the one 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Sorry that only has East TN but it’s from a station based out of Columbia, SC 

[PowellVolz]

I was just thumbing through the mods and one thing I noticed….  The 18z mods appear to have better ratios than the 12z mods. Not sure if that’s because the mods are thinking the trailing wave has more juice or what. 

[nrgjeff]

I'm at a loss why WPC and OHX/MRX almost blank southeast Tennessee. Whatever computer generated graphics HSV used has a little bit more light snow into Chatty.

Seems like it'll be cold enough for several hours. Strength of cold airmass and high press should hold low level (all level) cold air. GFS and CMC do so. NAM and EC mysteriously blank Chatty. Or they're going climo. Temp profiles look as good or better than Jan. 10 when we pulled snow out of messy hat though. Yeah it's a month later - but it looks cold enough to me!

[John1122]

The 18z UK was much better towards the areas south of 40 than it had been, which it had been throwing a blank. Now has generally 1-1.5 inches all the way to the southern border. 

[John1122]

Just got nam'd finally. Been waiting for that. Getting towards it's wheelhouse. 

[Chattownsnow]

Would be great if this didn’t happen lol. At least get it more north south but the orientation of the s/w I don’t think allows that 

[John1122]

0z that just ran.

Vs 12z today. 

 

[John1122]

3 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said:

Would be great if this didn’t happen lol. At least get it more north south but the orientation of the s/w I don’t think allows that 

That may happen, but the HRRR struggles mightily beyond about 6 to 12 hours out. 

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

0z that just ran.

Vs 12z today. 

 

The 3k looks like sh*t for the great Valley.

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

That may happen, but the HRRR struggles mightily beyond about 6 to 12 hours out. 

Yeah. It shows most of the Snow from the incoming System mainly across Kentucky. Slams the Pikeville area. Hopefully, that northern projected area trends South. 

[Daniel Boone]

Wouldn't it be nice just for once for an area like what Missouri is poised to get hit over our Area. 

[John1122]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

The 3k looks like sh*t for the great Valley.

The 3k struggles with terrain in our area. It seems to overexaggerate both upslope and downslope and it tries to basically hit every feature above about 2000 feet with some kind of downslope or upslope response. 

Snow fields are smooth in areas without peaks above 2k all over the area where snow falls, then when it gets to elevated areas there's a bump and decrease downwind of that bump across the board. It makes for a wildly varied output. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

The 3k struggles with terrain in our area. It seems to overexaggerate both upslope and downslope and it tries to basically hit every feature above about 2000 feet with some kind of downslope or upslope response. 

Snow fields are smooth in areas without peaks above 2k all over the area where snow falls, then when it gets to elevated areas there's a bump and decrease downwind of that bump across the board. It makes for a wildly varied output. 

Yeah, I started to elaborate on that but didn't feel up to it. It and the HRRR have always underforecasted Snowfall here. Webb seems to the the Southern system is coming further North. Don't know what effect that may have here if it were to . I think if it did further west it may actually throw more moisture into the incoming System, a phase of sorts intead of a transfer.

[John1122]

The FV3 (which also does the same thing with terrain as the 3k) has a better look for most. It still does the terrain ups and downs,  but has more qpf/snow for the entire board basically. 

[Jed33]

The RGEM continues to be basically locked in.

[John1122]

RGEM basically maintains what it has for the last two days. Really nice hit for West Tennessee and then the Northern Plateau and NE TN and points north. Around 3 inches along 40 from Nashville to Knoxville. 

[John1122]

29 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Wouldn't it be nice just for once for an area like what Missouri is poised to get hit over our Area. 

We used to get those a couple times a decade but they've faded since the 1990s. Not crossed 15 inches for an event in the 2000s. Did it three times in the 90s alone. 

[Daniel Boone]

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

We used to get those a couple times a decade but they've faded since the 1990s. Not crossed 15 inches for an event in the 2000s. Did it three times in the 90s alone. 

We were fortunate here in Feb. 2015. 

[Daniel Boone]

16 minutes ago, John1122 said:

RGEM basically maintains what it has for the last two days. Really nice hit for West Tennessee and then the Northern Plateau and NE TN and points north. Around 3 inches along 40 from Nashville to Knoxville. 

Hopefully it continues it's winning streak for the Area.

[PowellVolz]

1 hour ago, Chattownsnow said:

Would be great if this didn’t happen lol. At least get it more north south but the orientation of the s/w I don’t think allows that 

Honestly… this isn’t all that bad and it’s on the tail end of the system like a squall line on the cold front. What we don’t want is storms closer to the front of the moisture shield. 

[PowellVolz]

So we are starting to adjust to the low qpf bias for middle to late February? 
 

[John1122]

GFS really buries the Plateau west and went up for everyone except Chattanooga from 18z. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

GFS really buries the Plateau west and went up for everyone except Chattanooga from 18z. 

I've been wondering if the possibility of that vast area of heavy amounts might extend further east. GFS showing that possiblity. 

[bearman]

This is always a good look when MRX refuses to include the southern Valley but north Ga is included so everyone is colored in on the map with a hole for the southern valley.  It looks very strange on a map.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

Virga introduced, in case any of us had hope of earlier onset

Some dry low
level air will keep any precip light at onset, until forcing
increases toward sunrise and precip rates increase.

The timing of
this will greatly affect snow accumulation amounts. A later
arrival time will decrease the chance of accumulating snow,
because rising temperatures during the day will become a stronger
limiting factor. Once the sun comes up, snow accumulation during
the daytime is difficult in the later parts of winter with the
higher sun angle.

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like MRX went with the NBM for that map:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Pretty good precip field, virga or otherwise, already:

[PowellVolz]

16 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Pretty good precip field, virga or otherwise, already:

That gotta be ahead of schedule 

[PowellVolz]

The air this morning has that smell to it.