2/19-2/20 Miller A Magic?

[AMZ8990]

24 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Power finally came back on. RGEM still looks solid. 

Glad to hear it!  RGEM looks locked in for sure.  It’s been extremely consistent with what it’s showing the past 3-4 runs

[Carvers Gap]

MRX....afternoon disco.

Wednesday into Thursday will be the time frame to keep an eye on as
the surface low with this system tracks near the Gulf coast, so the
southern Appalachian area will be on the cold side of the system
with respect to winter precipitation. If the general model consensus
pans out and the precipitation moves in during the day on Wednesday
the main forecast difficulty will be determining which type of
precipitation will fall. Based on forecast soundings the mid to
lower levels of the atmosphere will be very cold, being supportive
of snow with very cold temps around 850mb. HOWEVER if the snow does
occur during the daytime many times in these scenarios the sun is
able to offset some of the heavier snow intensities. And at the same
time, based on the track of the surface low we`ll likely start
seeing downsloping winds coming off of the Appalachians across the
eastern side of the Valley. So all of this will combine to make a
tricky forecast for snowfall totals, as a slight change of a few
degrees anywhere within the bottom few thousand feet of the
atmosphere will have dramatic affects on precipitation type and
potential snow accumulations. As of right now, probabilistic
guidance shows that the valley has the most likely chance to see 0.5-
3 inches of snow, with higher amounts possible along the Cumberland
Plateau and in the southern Appalchians. Once this event gets closer
and higher resolution models are able to get a hold of this time
frame we should be able to narrow down the accumulation window.

Thursday will see most of the precipitation clear out of the region
with the typical northwest flow light flurries lingering in the area
in the very cold temperatures Wednesday night through Thursday
night. We`re not expecting really anywhere to climb above freezing
for about 36 hours Wednesday night through Friday morning.

[Carvers Gap]

The RGEM has a healthy system, AND it doesn't even have the second NW flow system accounted for in accumulations.  That little system is still inbound.

[AMZ8990]

Winter storm watch is now up for all of west  Tennessee as well. 

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
238 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

...POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.A deepening upper level disturbance will move from the Great Plains
to the Midsouth and Lower Ohio River Valley by Tuesday night. This
feature will interact with Arctic air to bring potentially impactful
snowfall along and north of Interstate 40 Tuesday night.

ARZ027-035-036-TNZ049-050-052>055-088>090-171030-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0002.250218T1800Z-250219T1800Z/
Poinsett-Cross-Crittenden-Tipton-Haywood-Madison-Chester-
Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-Hardeman-
Including the cities of Collierville, Millington, Bolivar,
Jackson, Lexington, Parsons, Harrisburg, Covington, Bartlett,
Germantown, Wynne, Decaturville, Henderson, Memphis, West
Memphis, Somerville, Oakland, and Brownsville
238 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 1
  and 3 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas and West Tennessee.

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

[Carvers Gap]

Watching this baby trend south again on the 18z GFS, that makes me happy to be on the Southside of this system for once.

[ShawnEastTN]

Watching this baby trend south again on the 18z GFS, that makes me happy to be on the Southside of this system for once.

GFS is really sticking to its guns keeping the snow/rain line down just south of the Tennessee border. Hopefully it's sniffing out the CAA better and warm nose less of an issue.

[dwagner88]

I’m kinda shocked to still be in the game at this point. Right now only the NAM is snowless.

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

56 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Watching this baby trend south again on the 18z GFS, that makes me happy to be on the Southside of this system for once.

GFS is really sticking to its guns keeping the snow/rain line down just south of the Tennessee border. Hopefully it's sniffing out the CAA better and warm nose less of an issue.

The 18z GEFS has also trended south and bumped up totals.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

Glad to hear it!  RGEM looks locked in for sure.  It’s been extremely consistent with what it’s showing the past 3-4 runs

Been the best Model hands down for here this Winter. 

[John1122]

I hadn't looked out, I have a dusting of snow now with a decent rate falling. 29 degrees. 

[Chattownsnow]

I did not expect this to dry out on modeling so much. It’s better than amping too much and bringing rain into the area I suppose. One of those situations you can’t have one without the other 

[John1122]

The Euro is a desert. Saw this story before. Basically whatever the worst case scenario is for snow in the area there's a 90 percent chance it happens here. Record breaker in the gulf, no issue. 5 inch snow in East Tennessee, hold your horses. 

[Chattownsnow]

17 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said:

I did not expect this to dry out on modeling so much. It’s better than amping too much and bringing rain into the area I suppose. One of those situations you can’t have one without the other 

Actually looking at modeling it’s not that big a difference in our neck of the woods. Really just noise, maybe slight down tick over all. Reading the doom and gloom in another forum I checked for myself and it’s just all IMB worries and not so much over all picture. Models are flopping around further west though. 18z Euro though looks rough though 

[John1122]

 

1 minute ago, Chattownsnow said:

 

Actually looking at modeling it’s not that big a difference in our neck of the woods. Really just noise, maybe slight down tick over all. Reading the doom and gloom in another forum I checked for myself and it’s just all IMB worries and not so much over all picture. Models are flopping around further west though. 18z Euro though looks rough though 

The Euro went from .6 or so to .15 QPF in the last 24-36 hours. Just horrible luck and I've no doubt it's going to be correct because whatever is the worst case here, has been correct this winter. 

 

[fountainguy97]

28 minutes ago, John1122 said:

 

The Euro went from .6 or so to .15 QPF in the last 24-36 hours. Just horrible luck and I've no doubt it's going to be correct because whatever is the worst case here, has been correct this winter. 

 

Yep that's just how it's been the last few winters. If I've been taught anything by the last 3 winters it's just sit back and let it ride. 
 

I used to get so spun up about storms and crash out when they inevitably went poof.  It's still frustrating for sure but my mindset now is that I'm just a spectator with no control over any of it.  Just going to let it ride and enjoy what we do get. 
 

Even with the downslope fiasco and the warm nose issues and now this transfer this winter has been exponentially better than the last 2 for my backyard. 

[WishingForWarmWeather]

3 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

Winter storm watch is now up for all of west  Tennessee as well. 

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
238 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

...POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.A deepening upper level disturbance will move from the Great Plains
to the Midsouth and Lower Ohio River Valley by Tuesday night. This
feature will interact with Arctic air to bring potentially impactful
snowfall along and north of Interstate 40 Tuesday night.

ARZ027-035-036-TNZ049-050-052>055-088>090-171030-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0002.250218T1800Z-250219T1800Z/
Poinsett-Cross-Crittenden-Tipton-Haywood-Madison-Chester-
Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-Hardeman-
Including the cities of Collierville, Millington, Bolivar,
Jackson, Lexington, Parsons, Harrisburg, Covington, Bartlett,
Germantown, Wynne, Decaturville, Henderson, Memphis, West
Memphis, Somerville, Oakland, and Brownsville
238 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 1
  and 3 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas and West Tennessee.

* WHEN...From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

Interesting - maybe I just skim these or something but I can’t remember a time they described adjectives of the snow in a WSW. “Heavy, wet”

 

 edit - just went to look at ours. Just says “heavy”. I guess mane the wet qualifier for the snow threw me off. Can’t remember seeing that before. 

[PowellVolz]

45 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Yep that's just how it's been the last few winters. If I've been taught anything by the last 3 winters it's just sit back and let it ride. 
 

I used to get so spun up about storms and crash out when they inevitably went poof.  It's still frustrating for sure but my mindset now is that I'm just a spectator with no control over any of it.  Just going to let it ride and enjoy what we do get. 
 

Even with the downslope fiasco and the warm nose issues and now this transfer this winter has been exponentially better than the last 2 for my backyard. 

For us in Knoxville, especially on the north side, ever since the Christmas Eve Eve event several years ago, we have actually over performed on all of the bigger snows. Overrunning event in Jan 24, we were looking at 4”-7” and ended up with 8”-10”. This year has been disappointing, however i remember going years without anything more than an inch or two. There’s been a few disappointing events but since 2020 we have done ok. 

[*Flash*]

WPC FWIW. Notable gradient over I-40 so I'd say it's legit...

[PowellVolz]

The 18z Icon doesn’t go all the way out but looking back and comparing it to 12z,  i believe the end of the run is a little south of 12z and it looks like it could have more qpf. I didn’t do a deep dive but on the surface, that’s what i believe I see. 

[*Flash*]

Finally, % of at least 1". Sorry, Polk County...

[John1122]

The 0z NAM was a massive improvement over any run so far. The 3k looks similar at the end. 

[PowellVolz]

lol… NAM now has snow to the Bama border but completely leaves out the valley up to Morristown but was a huge improvement 

[John1122]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

lol… NAM now has snow to the Bama border but completely leaves out the valley up to Morristown 

It's a positive step at least. It had blanked everyone south of a Kentucky border county. Hopefully this is a trend towards better qpf in Tennessee. 

[PowellVolz]

Just now, John1122 said:

It's a positive step at least. It had blanked everyone south of a Kentucky border county. Hopefully this is a trend towards better qpf in Tennessee. 

Absolutely it is. 

[John1122]

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

Absolutely it is. 

Unfortunately I don't trust it much outside 48 hours no matter what it shows. 

[PowellVolz]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Unfortunately I don't trust it much outside 48 hours no matter what it shows. 

It was so difficult than all the other mods, something eventually had to give. 

[Matthew70]

Please let all of TN get 4-6”.  Then let’s call it a winter & bring on spring. 

[John1122]

The RGEM looks good again. At 84 it's still snowing over all of East Tennessee basically. Low end is 1.5-2 inches along the southern border. High end is 6+ along the Kentucky border. 

[John1122]

The GFS is almost a mirror image of the RGEM. 

[John1122]

The UKIE was horrible for most everyone, oddly, my area didn't change much but literally everyone else saw their totals crash into oblivion on it. Especially Kentucky and North Carolina.