2/19-2/20 Miller A Magic?

[nrgjeff]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think this Arctic front is going it have to be reckoned with in NE TN tonight and the northern Plateau.  Frigid temps and IMO over performs in many areas due to the cold ground.

Yea and @John1122 will get six inches of Upper Plateau magic. Really light and fluffy feathers. 

[zcarland]

I think this Arctic front is going it have to be reckoned with in NE TN tonight and the northern Plateau.  Frigid temps and IMO over performs in many areas due to the cold ground.

Care to elaborate a little? Just trying to follow! Appreciate yall!


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[Scottie16]

Freezing drizzle in vonore. Albeit I work in the industry park so it’s no evident that it’s like that around Monroe county.


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[Scottie16]

Radar showing a band west of Knoxville building. Hopefully that trend continues.


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[fountainguy97]

Woke up to a nice dusting most of which has already melted off.  My eggs were always in the ULL basket with this one.  That February sun is no joke.  12z suite is fairly tame in regards to the energy coming through tonight maybe a generous 2-3" across the typical NW prone areas with 3-5" on the peaks

[Wurbus]

I wound up with about 1.5" here in Knoxville. Roads are mostly fine, but could be a mess late tonight and early morning if moisture is still lingering.

Also wanted to mention if you look at the US winter map warnings, there is extreme cold warnings down all the way from Manitoba to southern TX, except for southern half of South Dakota. Kind of odd they didn't issue any there, similar to the Chattanooga area not receiving a WWA until this morning.

[zcarland]

Woke up to a nice dusting most of which has already melted off.  My eggs were always in the ULL basket with this one.  That February sun is no joke.  12z suite is fairly tame in regards to the energy coming through tonight maybe a generous 2-3" across the typical NW prone areas with 3-5" on the peaks

What is the ULL, exactly?


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[PowellVolz]

Just now, zcarland said:

What is the ULL, exactly?


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It’s not really a ULL (upper level low), it’s more of a short wave on the upper level trough that will swing though tonight. It’s not really a benefit to the valley, more in the foothills, plateau and mountains. 

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Final table shot. 

[PowellVolz]

I’ve got right at 2” this morning on elevated surfaces. 

[PowellVolz]

Looking at state wide totals and assuming qpf was the same, I don’t believe we had down sloping issues in the valley. Pretty much 2” state wide other than the Clarksville area. I haven’t seen anything from @John1122 Its possible he had 4 or 5 inches. 

[PowellVolz]

3 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

East Tennessee needs some love from that back area of lift and enhanced mid-level clouds. Likely some sort of elevated secondary frontogenesis. Some models have it filling in a bit mid-morning (later, and for East Tenn). Others (damn NAM) don't do anything for anyone.

Satellite is the nighttime cloud physics. For a while I still preferred traditional IR, and it's still my goto for a quick view. Cloud physics shows greater detail though. How juicy is that in-between cloud on IR? Cloud physics helps hunting for mid-level hope! 

 

what site is that? Link?

[PowellVolz]

1 hour ago, Math/Met said:

Model soundings later tonight (after about 09z in my area) make me optimistic too. Good saturation/depth in the DGZ. The DGZ dropping below 850mb usually helps and steep lapse rates extend into the snow growth layer.

There's definitely potential for some areas to overperform under these high ratio bands.

 

If the DGZ is saturated and below 850, that will help the valley. A low and saturated DGZ tends to bank up against the mountains and backup into the valley  but it takes a little time for this to happen. It basically acts like fog in the valley caused by an inversion. It can’t can’t go anywhere. A low DGZ also helps the down slope issues off the northern plateau into the valley. Getting interested now lol

[fountainguy97]

54 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

It’s not really a ULL (upper level low), it’s more of a short wave on the upper level trough that will swing though tonight. It’s not really a benefit to the valley, more in the foothills, plateau and mountains. 

Yeah my bad on the terminology there lol.  

[John1122]

It's down to flurries here at 22 degrees, the temp is still headed down. Hopefully I can add to this this evening. 

 

[*Flash*]

2.7” in the Bluff. Would have appreciated more but this will be enough for snowplay today. 

[Math/Met]

19 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

If the DGZ is saturated and below 850, that will help the valley. A low and saturated DGZ tends to bank up against the mountains and backup into the valley  but it takes a little time for this to happen. It basically acts like fog in the valley caused by an inversion. It can’t can’t go anywhere. A low DGZ also helps the down slope issues off the northern plateau into the valley. Getting interested now lol

I like to use short range models to monitor when 850mb temps of -10 to -12C get advected into the area. The radar usually start to fill in when that happens. Just have to know how your area does in these situations.

 

[Daniel Boone]

Just measured 3.2" here. Snow stopped about half hour ago. May get another inch or two of fluff tonight.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think this Arctic front is going it have to be reckoned with in NE TN tonight and the northern Plateau.  Frigid temps and IMO over performs in many areas due to the cold ground.

I think 1-2" SWVA NETN Valley tonight as high Ratios should do it. May be more in spots and higher elevations. 

[PowellVolz]

52 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Yeah my bad on the terminology there lol.  

I wasn’t trying to correct you. I’m not one of those. 

[PowellVolz]

38 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

I like to use short range models to monitor when 850mb temps of -10 to -12C get advected into the area. The radar usually start to fill in when that happens. Just have to know how your area does in these situations.

 

It’s so hit or miss but 75% a miss. Most of the time we get down slopped bad unless the flow has a little more W to E direction in it. When the DGZ is lower, the problem is still there but not as bad. 

[PowellVolz]

I’m getting some pretty good high ratio rates right now and it’s a little bigger flake size than the normal NW flow stuff. Coming down pretty good. 

[PowellVolz]

lol… figured out why it’s ripping it at my house while no one else is talking about it. This streamer has been sitting over me running SW to NE for the last 30 min. Streets are getting covered again. 
 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Much vaunted late February sun angle has done exactly 0 to melt anything except on the roads. 

[John1122]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Much vaunted late February sun angle has done exactly 0 to melt anything except on the roads. 

It's not even managed that here. The only roads melted are the ones that were treated by TDOT yesterday. It's down to 21 degrees here now.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Ended up with about 1.5" total so far. 

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, John1122 said:

It's not even managed that here. The only roads melted are the ones that were treated by TDOT yesterday. It's down to 21 degrees here now.

Wow. 28 here. 30's in East Tn Valley.

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Wow. 28 here. 30's in East Tn Valley.

It's in the upper 10s just a few miles north of here in S. Kentucky.  It should keep getting colder further south as the day wears on.

[dwagner88]

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Much vaunted late February sun angle has done exactly 0 to melt anything except on the roads. 

It’s doing work here. Almost everything is gone even in the grass. Snow in Chattanooga is here for a good time, not a long time. 

[fountainguy97]

My temp has slowly started to fall from a spike of 36.  Downslope winds are relaxing.