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2/19-2/20 Miller A Magic?


fountainguy97
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Snow falling and already very lightly covering roads and grass in Clarksville. 
 

edit to add the high at my house today was 31 and is currently 24 and dropping. Big ol flakes falling. 
 

edit to add one more time. Last one I promise. I have  a falling our 4-6 might bust low. Feels/smells in the air out there like the big ones I used to get back home in Jersey. 

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I like the models that bring snow into Chatty. Not a wish-cast, just makes sense with cold enough temperature profile and partial thickness. Surface could get up to 38 but that no problem, all else in place. Plus the surface will probably stay colder than forecast during precip.

Now, the lee of the mountains. That's some cruel and unusual punishment - twice counting Jan. 10! Some high-res models agree with the snow shadow early. Then perhaps some NWFS will save last-minute when the lee becomes the windward side. Wind shift as system passes. 

image.thumb.png.c111343e4feca3d00ce650fd9d4e3391.png

image.png.a92acec01dd2c83e4de16e7f152c9189.png

image.png.c9ea86775361fc23ad2dfd9c9a9d0d2e.png

 

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oooo we have a mesoscale disco:

ImMk8EC.png

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0116
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0601 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

   Areas affected...Northeastern Arkansas...Southeastern
   Missouri...Western Tennessee...Western Kentucky...Southern Illinois

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 190001Z - 190300Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates will gradually increase across portions of
   western Kentucky and western Tennessee through the evening. Rates
   will decrease through time, though some moderate to heavy snowfall
   rates up to 1"/hr will be possible in heavier bands.

   DISCUSSION...Radar analysis shows the gradual shift of snowfall into
   portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee this evening. Moderate to
   heavy snowfall is ongoing across southeastern Missouri into southern
   Illinois, where a persistent heavy band extends, driven by 700-850
   mb frontogenesis and isentropic ascent. This enhancement will
   gradually shift eastward through time, with potential for a few
   heavier bands with occasional 1"/hr rates. HREF ensemble guidance
   shows a down trend in rates overall through the evening, with a
   transition to mostly light snow for portions of western Tennessee.
   Confidence is highest in potential for better rates across
   northwestern Kentucky into southern Illinois.

   ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025
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3 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

I like the models that bring snow into Chatty. Not a wish-cast, just makes sense with cold enough temperature profile and partial thickness. Surface could get up to 38 but that no problem, all else in place.

Now, the lee of the mountains. That's some cruel and unusual punishment - twice counting Jan. 10! Some high-res models agree with the snow shadow early. Then perhaps some NWFS will save last-minute.

image.thumb.png.c111343e4feca3d00ce650fd9d4e3391.png

image.png.a92acec01dd2c83e4de16e7f152c9189.png

image.png.c9ea86775361fc23ad2dfd9c9a9d0d2e.png

 

That model depiction of ARW2 looks to me what makes the most sense for most of the valley of East Tennessee.  I could buy 2-4" for most of the East Tennessee valley.

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10 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

That model depiction of ARW2 looks to me what makes the most sense for most of the valley of East Tennessee.  I could buy 2-4" for most of the East Tennessee valley.

After seeing the SERF QPF average of .4” liquid, 2”-4” is definitely in play if that’s right. 

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35 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

oooo we have a mesoscale disco:

ImMk8EC.png

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0116
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0601 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

   Areas affected...Northeastern Arkansas...Southeastern
   Missouri...Western Tennessee...Western Kentucky...Southern Illinois

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 190001Z - 190300Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates will gradually increase across portions of
   western Kentucky and western Tennessee through the evening. Rates
   will decrease through time, though some moderate to heavy snowfall
   rates up to 1"/hr will be possible in heavier bands.

   DISCUSSION...Radar analysis shows the gradual shift of snowfall into
   portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee this evening. Moderate to
   heavy snowfall is ongoing across southeastern Missouri into southern
   Illinois, where a persistent heavy band extends, driven by 700-850
   mb frontogenesis and isentropic ascent. This enhancement will
   gradually shift eastward through time, with potential for a few
   heavier bands with occasional 1"/hr rates. HREF ensemble guidance
   shows a down trend in rates overall through the evening, with a
   transition to mostly light snow for portions of western Tennessee.
   Confidence is highest in potential for better rates across
   northwestern Kentucky into southern Illinois.

   ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025

In the Tennessee area of this, the Euro was only showing around 2 inches total. 

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2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Interesting from the SREF Plumes….

BNA 2,75” average, .3” qpf

TYS just a hair below 3” but the qpf is .4”  75% snow, 25% liquid. 
if Knox area gets .4” qpf, I feel pretty good about 2” or so, obviously assuming it’s right. 

Don't look at the 9pm plumes for Knoxville. Mean cut in half to .2 qpf

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