Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 09:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:53 PM 18z GFS puts down 5-6" over NE TN. I don't know if it is right, but that is the kucher output. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 10:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:03 PM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Tuesday at 10:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:08 PM 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Slight increase for most from their last map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Tuesday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:13 PM Snow has started falling in Paducah 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 10:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:16 PM They decreased totals for my area it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted Tuesday at 10:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:16 PM 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: Snow has started falling in Paducah You are in a great location for this storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Tuesday at 10:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:21 PM 3 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: You are in a great location for this storm! Sadly, I was up here for work now. I’m on my way back home to Nashville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 10:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:22 PM The 18z GFS gives me 6 inches. The 18z ICON and RGEM give me 5 inches. The NAM had been giving 5 inches here but now it's down to 3 inches. The 3K paints 4+ all along Cross Mountain but areas to the immediate east get downsloped I assume, and get 2 inches. Because there are 0 temp issues imby on any model. I am in the lower to mid 20s the entire event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted Tuesday at 10:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:29 PM 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: The 18z GFS gives me 6 inches. The 18z ICON and RGEM give me 5 inches. The NAM had been giving 5 inches here but now it's down to 3 inches. The 3K paints 4+ all along Cross Mountain but areas to the immediate east get downsloped I assume, and get 2 inches. Because there are 0 temp issues imby on any model. I am in the lower to mid 20s the entire event. That is what we affectionately call “The Big MRX Screw”. lol! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 10:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:33 PM Peak temp today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 10:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:38 PM 20 minutes ago, John1122 said: They decreased totals for my area it appears. I don't know what caused that other than the earlier 3k run and them smoothing/ broadbrushing some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:39 PM 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: Peak temp today. Hit 38 here today but had a period of Sun mid to late Morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 10:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:50 PM 10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: I don't know what caused that other than the earlier 3k run and them smoothing/ broadbrushing some. I'm sure it's whatever the latest NBM is. They basically seem to never use anything but it. It's pretty much an ensemble mean it seems. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 11:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:01 PM 8 minutes ago, John1122 said: I'm sure it's whatever the latest NBM is. They basically seem to never use anything but it. It's pretty much an ensemble mean it seems. They've told me that's what they use. From a logical standpoint you'd think it's the right way to go but, several rather poor Models get factored in and makes it not so great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 11:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:02 PM Just now, Daniel Boone said: They've told me that's what they use. From a logical standpoint you'd think it's the right way to go but, several rather poor Models get factored in and makes it not so great. Yes, I agree. And one or two bad models can really skew the mean in both directions. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Tuesday at 11:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:04 PM 15 minutes ago, John1122 said: I'm sure it's whatever the latest NBM is. They basically seem to never use anything but it. It's pretty much an ensemble mean it seems. YES!!! It seems they always go NMB hardcore. It also seems NMB is often weighted in weird ways that seem to be way more conservative than actual verification. Great example was the deep south snow and our January snow. Both they seemed to align with NMB and in both cases it was way more conservative than actual verification. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 11:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:06 PM Soon as the sun dropped behind the mountain the temp dropped. Hopefully my last moments above freezing until Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 11:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:10 PM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Tuesday at 11:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:16 PM Visibility here near Cadiz Kentucky is maybe a quarter of a mile. It is really coming down. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted Tuesday at 11:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:19 PM I don’t know why, but I just can’t get excited about this one. I’ve seen too many of the deal killers mentioned for me to get my hopes up:• downsloping• sun angle• warm nose• virga • energy transfer / hand-offI hope I’m wrong and we all get a good event, but mentally, I’m just expecting a nuisance event at best for my location in Knoxville. . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted Tuesday at 11:20 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:20 PM Visibility here near Cadiz Kentucky is maybe a quarter of a mile. It is really coming down.Swing into Ferrell’s and get some burgers for the ride home!!!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 11:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:24 PM 17 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: YES!!! It seems they always go NMB hardcore. It also seems NMB is often weighted in weird ways that seem to be way more conservative than actual verification. Great example was the deep south snow and our January snow. Both they seemed to align with NMB and in both cases it was way more conservative than actual verification. The Jan 2024 event I specifically remember the NMB showing higher amounts than other models and I was confident they would go with that because they always do. lol…. The literally said in an AFD before it started, they were going with the SREF. That mod(s) was the lightest one and MRX was off by about 1/2 lol… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 11:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:26 PM 8 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Visibility here near Cadiz Kentucky is maybe a quarter of a mile. It is really coming down. So not much verga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted Tuesday at 11:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:26 PM Sleet reports now coming out of Collierville, tn, and in Tipton county north of Shelby county 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted Tuesday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:27 PM Interesting clouds in JC this evening. Maybe it's a sign 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted Tuesday at 11:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:36 PM Interesting clouds in JC this evening. Maybe it's a sign Ha!!! My son lives not too far from there!!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 11:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:36 PM 25 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: The EURO had St Louis with 1.1 inches by 7pm. Did they have 2 or 3 inches by noon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 11:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:37 PM Going by ground reports and the radar, seems as though the snow isn’t taking long to reach the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:38 PM Just now, John1122 said: The EURO had St Louis with 1.1 inches by 7pm. Did they have 2 or 3 inches by noon? Yes… I believe around 1 pm I seen a report of 4” on the SW side of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Tuesday at 11:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:45 PM 18 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: So not much verga? No. It was maybe 20 min of very fine snow then boom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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