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2/19-2/20 Miller A Magic?


fountainguy97
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Better late than never! Chattanooga always looked good on the models to me. Not a big snow, but 1-2 inches. We have about an inch now. Looks like a pause is incoming. Could get one more encore, from which I usually don't expect much. However if enough mid-level moisture hangs around, and surface temps stay cold, maybe later today. 

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5 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

However if enough mid-level moisture hangs around, and surface temps stay cold, maybe later today. 

Yeah, I was just looking at the HRRR and RAP and it almost looks like this system us getting some higher (more elevated)-than-usual moisture trapped on our side of the Apps and some orographic lift is able to take advantage of that in areas that usually don't do well with the typical upslope. 

giphy.gif

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East Tennessee needs some love from that back area of lift and enhanced mid-level clouds. Likely some sort of elevated secondary frontogenesis. Some models have it filling in a bit mid-morning (later, and for East Tenn). Others (damn NAM) don't do anything for anyone.

Satellite is the nighttime cloud physics. For a while I still preferred traditional IR, and it's still my goto for a quick view. Cloud physics shows greater detail though. How juicy is that in-between cloud on IR? Cloud physics helps hunting for mid-level hope! :snowman:

image.png.c2645b3184587dc93453662e7dd39444.png

image.thumb.png.09eb40b2d54e804c13834aabd93d600a.png

 

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Dusting in Erwin, around a half inch in north Johnson City when I left the house about 30 minutes ago, but we knew part one was going to be problematic.  Congrats to those overperforming!  Holding out hope tonight can catch the upslope areas up to the other areas.  I'm guessing we wake up to a prettier picture tomorrow than we did today and probably more road problems due to much colder temps.

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Just shy of 2 inches, and temp above freezing. Need some help in Chatty.

Come on little guy, Snow Grogu, blossom and grow. You are our last great hope!

image.png.5f45b420eaf988e553f56a83343c14fa.png 

Daytime cloud physics / RGB. Dark teal west of Nashville is liquid clouds, so tough to get more now. Maroon west of Clarksville is even lower clouds. Thicker clouds are intuitive and orange shades are ice or mixed. 

image.png.5731dedb428563f885e821eebbcc0ad3.png

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Well, just when I thought it was going to stop and there was no hope of a band trying to reform, it’s snowing again and a small band is trying to reform, but unfortunately looks like it’s not going to last too long. Looks like it’s being aided by a stronger band trying to sink SE from KY.

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think this Arctic front is going it have to be reckoned with in NE TN tonight and the northern Plateau.  Frigid temps and IMO over performs in many areas due to the cold ground.

Model soundings later tonight (after about 09z in my area) make me optimistic too. Good saturation/depth in the DGZ. The DGZ dropping below 850mb usually helps and steep lapse rates extend into the snow growth layer.

There's definitely potential for some areas to overperform under these high ratio bands.

 

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