Carvers Gap Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 18z GFS puts down 5-6" over NE TN. I don't know if it is right, but that is the kucher output. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 10:03 PM, PowellVolz said: Expand Slight increase for most from their last map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Snow has started falling in Paducah 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 They decreased totals for my area it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 10:13 PM, Matthew70 said: Snow has started falling in Paducah Expand You are in a great location for this storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 10:16 PM, AMZ8990 said: You are in a great location for this storm! Expand Sadly, I was up here for work now. I’m on my way back home to Nashville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The 18z GFS gives me 6 inches. The 18z ICON and RGEM give me 5 inches. The NAM had been giving 5 inches here but now it's down to 3 inches. The 3K paints 4+ all along Cross Mountain but areas to the immediate east get downsloped I assume, and get 2 inches. Because there are 0 temp issues imby on any model. I am in the lower to mid 20s the entire event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 10:22 PM, John1122 said: The 18z GFS gives me 6 inches. The 18z ICON and RGEM give me 5 inches. The NAM had been giving 5 inches here but now it's down to 3 inches. The 3K paints 4+ all along Cross Mountain but areas to the immediate east get downsloped I assume, and get 2 inches. Because there are 0 temp issues imby on any model. I am in the lower to mid 20s the entire event. Expand That is what we affectionately call “The Big MRX Screw”. lol! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Peak temp today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 10:16 PM, John1122 said: They decreased totals for my area it appears. Expand I don't know what caused that other than the earlier 3k run and them smoothing/ broadbrushing some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 10:33 PM, John1122 said: Peak temp today. Expand Hit 38 here today but had a period of Sun mid to late Morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 10:38 PM, Daniel Boone said: I don't know what caused that other than the earlier 3k run and them smoothing/ broadbrushing some. Expand I'm sure it's whatever the latest NBM is. They basically seem to never use anything but it. It's pretty much an ensemble mean it seems. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 10:50 PM, John1122 said: I'm sure it's whatever the latest NBM is. They basically seem to never use anything but it. It's pretty much an ensemble mean it seems. Expand They've told me that's what they use. From a logical standpoint you'd think it's the right way to go but, several rather poor Models get factored in and makes it not so great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:01 PM, Daniel Boone said: They've told me that's what they use. From a logical standpoint you'd think it's the right way to go but, several rather poor Models get factored in and makes it not so great. Expand Yes, I agree. And one or two bad models can really skew the mean in both directions. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 10:50 PM, John1122 said: I'm sure it's whatever the latest NBM is. They basically seem to never use anything but it. It's pretty much an ensemble mean it seems. Expand YES!!! It seems they always go NMB hardcore. It also seems NMB is often weighted in weird ways that seem to be way more conservative than actual verification. Great example was the deep south snow and our January snow. Both they seemed to align with NMB and in both cases it was way more conservative than actual verification. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Soon as the sun dropped behind the mountain the temp dropped. Hopefully my last moments above freezing until Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Visibility here near Cadiz Kentucky is maybe a quarter of a mile. It is really coming down. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I don’t know why, but I just can’t get excited about this one. I’ve seen too many of the deal killers mentioned for me to get my hopes up:• downsloping• sun angle• warm nose• virga • energy transfer / hand-offI hope I’m wrong and we all get a good event, but mentally, I’m just expecting a nuisance event at best for my location in Knoxville. . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:16 PM, Matthew70 said: Visibility here near Cadiz Kentucky is maybe a quarter of a mile. It is really coming down.Swing into Ferrell’s and get some burgers for the ride home!!!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:04 PM, ShawnEastTN said: YES!!! It seems they always go NMB hardcore. It also seems NMB is often weighted in weird ways that seem to be way more conservative than actual verification. Great example was the deep south snow and our January snow. Both they seemed to align with NMB and in both cases it was way more conservative than actual verification. Expand The Jan 2024 event I specifically remember the NMB showing higher amounts than other models and I was confident they would go with that because they always do. lol…. The literally said in an AFD before it started, they were going with the SREF. That mod(s) was the lightest one and MRX was off by about 1/2 lol… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:16 PM, Matthew70 said: Visibility here near Cadiz Kentucky is maybe a quarter of a mile. It is really coming down. Expand So not much verga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Sleet reports now coming out of Collierville, tn, and in Tipton county north of Shelby county 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Interesting clouds in JC this evening. Maybe it's a sign 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:27 PM, BlunderStorm said: Interesting clouds in JC this evening. Maybe it's a sign Ha!!! My son lives not too far from there!!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:10 PM, PowellVolz said: Expand The EURO had St Louis with 1.1 inches by 7pm. Did they have 2 or 3 inches by noon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Going by ground reports and the radar, seems as though the snow isn’t taking long to reach the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:36 PM, John1122 said: The EURO had St Louis with 1.1 inches by 7pm. Did they have 2 or 3 inches by noon? Expand Yes… I believe around 1 pm I seen a report of 4” on the SW side of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:26 PM, PowellVolz said: So not much verga? Expand No. It was maybe 20 min of very fine snow then boom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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