John1122 Posted Tuesday at 06:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:48 PM 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: so what you are saying is we are guaranteed to get double what the mods are saying…… The way it goes here, whatever model that shows the least is likely to nail it. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 06:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:51 PM 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: The way it goes here, whatever model that shows the least is likely to nail it. That’s so true and so depressing. Lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 07:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:21 PM JKL upgraded their advisory counties to a Winter Storm Warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 07:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:36 PM Actually looks like they did that this morning and I hadn't noticed. I guess they are not going with the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Tuesday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:48 PM 9 minutes ago, John1122 said: I guess they are not going with the Euro. Sun angle is much lower with JKL’s latitude. 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Tuesday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:22 PM If it means anything at all my point forecast has zero rain or mixing in now. All snow, and actual snow, not snow showers. Where yesterday and this morning included the weird snow then rain then snow again verbiage they often use. Also just reading MRX afternoon discussion which just came out about 15 minutes ago they mentioned advisory criteria area wide so they may pull the trigger on southern valley which would be smart considering Chattanooga has morning traffic too and schools and such and if they are "uncertain" as they mention over and over the wise thing to do is air on the side of caution. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:22 PM 34 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Sun angle is much lower with JKL’s latitude. That's it ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Tuesday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:43 PM Rhea county has a Cold weather advisory now! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 08:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:54 PM 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Sun angle is much lower with JKL’s latitude. And their snow is starting 30 minutes earlier. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 08:58 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:58 PM Start time did move up considerably, I was 6 to 8 am and now it says 3 to 5 am. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Tuesday at 09:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:04 PM Pretty good radar echoes SW of Memphis right now but you can also see the virga halo around the radar site. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted Tuesday at 09:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:09 PM Where is MRX getting a high of 35 tomorrow for Knoxville? Based on what I see with most of the models, the temp is around freezing or below for the high 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted Tuesday at 09:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:12 PM 2 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: Where is MRX getting a high of 35 tomorrow? Based on what I see with most of the models, the temp is around freezing or below for the high It’s the high sun angle thingy lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 09:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:13 PM 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Sun angle is much lower with JKL’s latitude. You might have broken this website with that comeback….. I’m still crying 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 09:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:15 PM 5 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: Where is MRX getting a high of 35 tomorrow for Knoxville? Based on what I see with most of the models, the temp is around freezing or below for the high Because there’s some WAA with this system, it’s possible that the high temp happens at 12:01am and continues to cool throughout the day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 09:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:18 PM The HRRR has a stubborn surface warmnose up the Eastern Valley. It basically runs along 40. South Knox is 33, north Knox 30ish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 09:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:22 PM I'm at 22f on the HRRR at 8am. 33 is right up the valley areas. The foothills are subfreezing. If they warm nose it's beyond the HRRRs range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 09:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:23 PM 1 minute ago, John1122 said: The HRRR has a stubborn surface warmnose up the Eastern Valley. It basically runs along 40. South Knox is 33, north Knox 30ish. If those temps are at the surface, there shouldn’t be a difference in PType with those areas. If the warm layer is elevated, neither location would be snow. If the snow totals are different, then we could have downsloping issues drying up the qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted Tuesday at 09:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:23 PM How accurate has the HRRR been with temps this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Tuesday at 09:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:25 PM 8 minutes ago, John1122 said: The HRRR has a stubborn surface warmnose up the Eastern Valley. It basically runs along 40. South Knox is 33, north Knox 30ish. This is what I wonder if models are over doing downsloping and warm nose in combination with each other for a sort of double wammy for the East Tennessee Valley. Most modeling I've seen the push of warm air both warm nose and downsloping look a bit over done to me for this storm strength and track honestly I'm more worried about CAA and virga. Then you have models like the graf that have essentially been saying what warming of either type? Though I don't really know anything about the graf. Going to be an interesting morning tomorrow maybe some big busts in either direction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:26 PM 1 minute ago, Vol4Life said: How accurate has the HRRR been with temps this season? I honestly don’t know. The HRRR and other CAMS are designed for severe thunderstorms, not snow. I only use the HRRR as a validation tool for the other mods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 09:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:27 PM OHX is going for 6+ in some of their CWA. 2-5 elsewhere. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Tuesday at 09:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:28 PM We are pretty much now casting anyway. What we have is what we have at this point. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 09:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:28 PM 1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said: This is what I wonder if models are over doing downsloping and warm nose in combination with each other for a sort of double wammy for the East Tennessee Valley. Most modeling I've seen the push of warm air both warm nose and downsloping look a bit over done to me for this storm strength and track. Then you have models like the graf that have essentially been saying what warming of either type? Though I don't really know anything about the graf. Going to be an interesting morning tomorrow maybe some big busts in either direction. Some of the hi-res models over-emphasize terrain in East Tennessee. The NAM/RGEM are usually pretty good with thermals at close range. So is the Euro. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 09:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:31 PM Most models have the entire forum area except for some parts of NE Alabama, below freezing by tomorrow morning when the HRRR is showing a large area of 33f. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Tuesday at 09:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:32 PM A few satellite and radar obs. for now: Looks to me like convection parallel to the Gulf coast thingy is happening. Note the feature over SE/ South central Texas. Looks like a front focusing the precip. there and south of the LA coast. Also evident on Long wave IR band: No clue what this feature is in west TN (maybe lower/ mid level moisture/ WAA impacting higher cloud temps somehow?) but it looks cool on IR imagery. Dry air trying to overcome near Memphis: Deep Gulf connection seems shut off for now, so we wait and see what the actual shortwave does as it moves east. Still looks near TX/ NM border to me 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted Tuesday at 09:35 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 09:35 PM Indeed the place where snowflakes go to die appears in full force tomorrow as both the hrrrr and nam have a minor downsloping wind for the valley through the day. I said earlier today don't be shocked when the valley and east is a bare ground going into tmrw evening. It'll be very similar to last event. Except hopefully when the flow backs we get a nice shot of cold NW snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted Tuesday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:36 PM RECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. More Information ...A WINTER STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT... .An upper level low pressure system will interact with an approaching Arctic cold front to bring impactful snowfall to the Midsouth tonight. Snowfall of 3 to 5 inches is forecast north of Interstate 40, with highest amounts expected over far northeast Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel. South of I-40, a mixture of sleet and snow is expected this evening, with snow likely to follow overnight. Snow amounts are forecast to range from 1 to 3 inches in the Interstate 40 corridor, with lesser amounts to the south. Due to banded nature of snow, locally higher amounts of snow will be possible across the Midsouth by Wednesday morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted Tuesday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:41 PM 38 minutes ago, John1122 said: Start time did move up considerably, I was 6 to 8 am and now it says 3 to 5 am. I noticed the same thing, precipitation field is definitely ahead of schedule. Currently sitting at 40 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Tuesday at 09:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:43 PM I’m in Paducah & no snow yet. Brutal wind chill & cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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