Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:56 PM 1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said: I hope/pray for a full recovery and wellness brother. I will echo that. Feel better, Matthew. It has been a LONG cold and flu season and flu B is now starting to show up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Sunday at 06:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:48 PM 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Today or next week? Starting next Sunday 47, Monday 57, rear of week not below 60. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Sunday at 06:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:51 PM 55 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: I hope/pray for a full recovery and wellness brother. Thank you! I am getting there. Never had pneumonia but it sure makes one tired & short of breath. Similar to Covid. I even took the pneumonia vax due to my lungs being damaged from Covid. Again thank you! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Sunday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:52 PM 55 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I will echo that. Feel better, Matthew. It has been a LONG cold and flu season and flu B is now starting to show up. Thank you so much. Definitely been a rough sick season for many. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:30 PM It's wild how we used to have a Miller A system nearly every year and the last few years we can't buy anything but hand-off systems unless it's too warm to snow. Hopefully we see some better trends in the next 36 hours, instead of worse trends. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Sunday at 07:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:32 PM 1 minute ago, John1122 said: It's wild how we used to have a Miller A system nearly every year and the last few years we can't buy anything but hand-off systems unless it's too warm to snow. Hopefully we see some better trends in the next 36 hours, instead of worse trends. Yeah, I remember when we had 4 in a month. I'm sure you do too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted Sunday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:42 PM Winter Storm Watches issued in middle upper counties of TN. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Sunday at 07:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:45 PM 2 hours ago, fountainguy97 said: Yeah what a brutal transfer. Wish we could get back to the earlier phase solution but it is extremely unlikely at this point. almost completely blanks Western NC. Can confirm on this side of the apps - brutal trends! Just been a tough few years for us in the Lee. It’s been since Dec 2018 that this area has had a classic Miller A thumping. After Helene, I was hoping Mother Nature would reward the area with a good treat this winter but I have to remind myself that’s not how weather works. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted Sunday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:49 PM Man, OHX got their Winter Storm Watch out earlier than usual! Gotta think confidence is increasing... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Nashville TN 134 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 TNZ005>011-023>031-033-034-056-057-059-170345- /O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0002.250219T0300Z-250219T1800Z/ Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston- Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith- Jackson-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Williamson- Including the cities of Lobelville, Dover, Ashland City, Livingston, New Johnsonville, Lafayette, Mount Juliet, Gainesboro, Celina, McEwen, Hartsville, South Carthage, Nashville, Jamestown, Lebanon, Dickson, Kingston Springs, Tennessee Ridge, Brentwood, Erin, Waverly, Carthage, Gallatin, Centerville, Springfield, Gordonsville, Hendersonville, Goodlettsville, Franklin, Byrdstown, Linden, Clarksville, and Allardt 134 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 5 inches possible. * WHERE...A portion of Middle Tennessee. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Sunday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:22 PM 31 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Man, OHX got their Winter Storm Watches out earlier than usual! Gotta think confidence is increasing... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Nashville TN 134 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 TNZ005>011-023>031-033-034-056-057-059-170345- /O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0002.250219T0300Z-250219T1800Z/ Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston- Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith- Jackson-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Williamson- Including the cities of Lobelville, Dover, Ashland City, Livingston, New Johnsonville, Lafayette, Mount Juliet, Gainesboro, Celina, McEwen, Hartsville, South Carthage, Nashville, Jamestown, Lebanon, Dickson, Kingston Springs, Tennessee Ridge, Brentwood, Erin, Waverly, Carthage, Gallatin, Centerville, Springfield, Gordonsville, Hendersonville, Goodlettsville, Franklin, Byrdstown, Linden, Clarksville, and Allardt 134 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 5 inches possible. * WHERE...A portion of Middle Tennessee. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. That’s weird. Rutherford not included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Sunday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:23 PM I’m guessing OHX believes the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Sunday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:43 PM 18 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: That’s weird. Rutherford not included. Actually strange they'd do this so early,its not the criteria of WSW 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Sunday at 08:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:49 PM WSW in general go out 12-36 hours this is like 72 hrs..lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:52 PM 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, I remember when we had 4 in a month. I'm sure you do too. La Nina's don't offer up many Miller As. During La Ninas, we often depend on NW flow(and sliders) which we didn't get this year during the cold shot. We need a very weak El Nino (without La Nina characteristics like the recent one) for that. We have been in a La Nina base state of late. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Sunday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:52 PM https://www.weather.gov/media/meg/WinterStormCriteriaMEG.pdf they must be pretty damn confident..lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Sunday at 08:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:54 PM Lexington Ky after Rain changed to Snow Today. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Sunday at 08:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:55 PM North of I-40 in Tennessee looks ok right now but if we could get a 50 mile trend to the south, we would be in business. BAM weather on their last video thinks a south shift is possible. Also…. Just a little shift to the south would increase ratios north of 40. That would give us more bang for our buck without increasing qpf. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Sunday at 08:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:56 PM 1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said: Lexington Ky after Rain changed to Snow Today. Been quite a winter for Louisville to Lexington this year. Probably one of their best in a good while 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 08:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:57 PM Just now, PowellVolz said: North of I-40 in Tennessee looks ok right now but if we could get a 50 mile trend to the south, we would be in business. BAM weather on their last video thinks a south shift is possible. Also…. Just a little shift to the south would increase ratios north of 40. That would give us more bang for our buck without increasing qpf. Yes. Modeling has been slowly creeping south during the last 36 hours. We should be locked in by tomorrow morning one way or another. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Sunday at 08:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:59 PM Just now, PowellVolz said: Been quite a winter for Louisville to Lexington this year. Probably one of their best in a good while I was thinking the same but more north of 1-40,theyve had quite a winter from snow,flooding and severe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Sunday at 09:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:02 PM Just now, Carvers Gap said: Yes. Modeling has been slowly creeping south during the last 36 hours. We should be locked in by tomorrow morning one way or another. Is there any climo evidence that a solid high pressure over the top of a low pressure pass to our south ends up pushing the low further south than modeled? I don’t have a 1/4 of the knowledge you all do in winter storms but I can’t imagine this storm going back a little north in the 11th hour with how strong the cold push is on the NW side of the system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Sunday at 09:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:06 PM 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Is there any climo evidence that a solid high pressure over the top of a low pressure pass to our south ends up pushing the low further south than modeled? I don’t have a 1/4 of the knowledge you all do in winter storms but I can’t imagine this storm going back a little north in the 11th hour with how strong the cold push is on the NW side of the system. im making a huge mistake here talking myself into believing common sense plays a role into forecasting winter weather in our neck of the woods. lol… take a breath Powell, or a Xanax. Lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Sunday at 09:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:18 PM 29 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: WSW in general go out 12-36 hours this is like 72 hrs..lol Maybe someone hacked their site. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 09:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:19 PM Power finally came back on. RGEM still looks solid. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 09:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:23 PM ICON looks good still. At least not like the NAM at all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Sunday at 09:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:27 PM 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: ICON looks good still. At least not like the NAM at all. I can’t remember but it seems like I’ve seen lots of chatter on twitter about the NAM not doing well this winter. I don’t think it did well in our January flizzard either. Correct me if I’m wrong please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Sunday at 09:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:27 PM Curious. Should there not be a transition zone of snow > sleet > ice > rain? OHX thinks snow or rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 09:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:37 PM 30 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Is there any climo evidence that a solid high pressure over the top of a low pressure pass to our south ends up pushing the low further south than modeled? I don’t have a 1/4 of the knowledge you all do in winter storms but I can’t imagine this storm going back a little north in the 11th hour with how strong the cold push is on the NW side of the system. If it creeps back north, it usually means the high was over modeled(in that particular scenario), OR it verified north of original guidance which I think is the most common problem. Often modeling will overdo how far south the cold air actually gets. Occasionally, it will under model very cold air as Arctic air is nearer the surface, and slides under 500 modeling. And then of course sometimes it is just timing here in the subtropics where the base state mostly rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Sunday at 09:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:37 PM 8 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Curious. Should there not be a transition zone of snow > sleet > ice > rain? OHX thinks snow or rain? Maybe, maybe not but too far away for details like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM The 18z ICON, as John noted looks good. It looks reasonable. It also continued the trend of pushing the heavier snow axis toward the northern TN border. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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