yoda Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 FDK/Walkersville getting smoked per Radarscope... nearing 70 dBz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1 minute ago, high risk said: It has nicely cooled aloft. This is what I was suggesting earlier that there might be a window for a couple of hours past sunset with a severe threat, as mid-level cooling would compensate for surface cooling. Unfortunately, with the line (or whatever is left of it) not getting into the DC area for a few more hours, I'm just hoping for a rumble or two of thunder at this point. The good(?) news is that the surface is hanging in there so far. I’m 66/61. IAD is 69 still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 3 minutes ago, yoda said: FDK/Walkersville getting smoked per Radarscope... nearing 70 dBz Good hail up there. Not huge, but a lot of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 TVS sig near Madison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Image from my weather project... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 17 Author Share Posted March 17 Looks like things will be quiet for the next block of time locally. Still worth watching that March 25th timeframe but seems to have trended away from a severe threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 18 Author Share Posted March 18 Sub-severe gusty showers possible on Thursday afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Monday at 11:00 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:00 AM Maybe something in the Sunday into Tuesday timeframe of next week? Large 15% day 7 from Michigan south to the GoM... day 8 has a mention of us but no outlooked area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Monday at 02:02 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 02:02 PM 3 hours ago, yoda said: Maybe something in the Sunday into Tuesday timeframe of next week? Large 15% day 7 from Michigan south to the GoM... day 8 has a mention of us but no outlooked area That discussion indicates we will have similar issues to our prior severe "threats" this year so far. Thermodynamics likely to be lacking. Though again - the further we get into spring, the "easier" it gets to not get wedged in...though if you ask Eskimo Joe you can probably still count on getting wedged in even into June lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Monday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:41 PM 38 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That discussion indicates we will have similar issues to our prior severe "threats" this year so far. Thermodynamics likely to be lacking. Though again - the further we get into spring, the "easier" it gets to not get wedged in...though if you ask Eskimo Joe you can probably still count on getting wedged in even into June lol. The wedge always holds....until it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Monday at 03:58 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 03:58 PM 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: The wedge always holds....until it doesn't. It could be July/August and we'd find a way to cloud over just in time to squash instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Monday at 04:58 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 04:58 PM Way out there of course - but the 12z GFS pushes the system through too early in the day I think, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Monday at 08:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:11 PM 4 hours ago, Kmlwx said: It could be July/August and we'd find a way to cloud over just in time to squash instability That's why I'm such a big believer in EMLs. They are vital in overcoming the various mesoscale fail modes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Monday at 08:24 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 08:24 PM 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's why I'm such a big believer in EMLs. They are vital in overcoming the various mesoscale fail modes. They are just so unusual and finicky - and they often are super cagey at range. And the best we can *usually* hope for is a modified EML that loses a lot of punch as it gets to use. The "big events" are the ones that really have a robust one. I haven't done a deep dive - but I'm guessing June 2008 had one, we all know June 2012 had one. Minus an EML - tropical action going to our west is always a good bet for tornadoes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 18 hours ago Author Share Posted 18 hours ago Instability for next Monday improved on the Euro it seems. Timing also seems to look a bit better on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 17 hours ago, Kmlwx said: They are just so unusual and finicky - and they often are super cagey at range. And the best we can *usually* hope for is a modified EML that loses a lot of punch as it gets to use. The "big events" are the ones that really have a robust one. I haven't done a deep dive - but I'm guessing June 2008 had one, we all know June 2012 had one. Minus an EML - tropical action going to our west is always a good bet for tornadoes. Quick look at the SPC mesoscale analysis archive. MLLRs June 4, 2008: 6.5-7C/km (modestly steep) MLLRs June 29, 2012: 8+C/km (very steep). Evening sounding confirmed MLLRs of 8.6C/km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Since it's quite severe-wise here, I recommend checking out the setup for Wednesday in the Pacific Northwest. Great shear with the intense approaching trough and surprising amounts of instability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now