2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

We'll see... some pickup in lightning and warned cell in W MD 

Family says the storm in Harrisonburg is fairly vigorous, even if it doesn’t look intimidating on radar 

[midatlanticweather]

Lots of hail signatures on the storms on the western Loudoun border. I will let you know as they hit Purcellville 

 

 

[87storms]

Pretty remarkable CAM agreement on an intense line rolling through the area in the early afternoon tomorrow.   (The NAM Nest is a bit later than any other guidance, but it has a notorious slow bias on convective timing.)   The reflectivities look amazing, but is there really any severe potential with it in the DC area?    The wind fields are amazing, and if we had even 500 j/kg of sfc-based cape, we'd be looking at widespread damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes.    But there really isn't any instability shown by any model.  Maybe the HRRR squeezes out 50-100 j/kg, but it looks warmer than most other guidance.     So, I have to wonder if this will be just  a short period of torrential rain followed by stratiform.    Before I totally poo-poo the threat, however, it's worth noting that sometimes the incredible shear and overall dynamics can drive severe weather with a forced line in an environment with basically no cape, so I won't rule out a damaging event with an isolated brief pinup, but I don't think that it's likely.
The better environment actually establishes itself over northern VA and areas to the north and northwest in the evening hours, as the very cold air aloft arrives, steeping lapse rates.    Go look at sfc-based cape fields for the early evening hours.   The values aren't awesome, but they're notably higher than during the early afternoon event.    Wind fields are still decent, so any cells would likely be supercellular have hail and wind potential.    Unfortunately, the upper system arrives just a bit too late, and nighttime sfc cooling with reduce the potential as the evening goes on.    The best severe threat with this round will be over eastern WV, northwestern VA, and up into PA.   Maybe an isolated cell can pop across the DC metro area, and it would have severe potential if it did, but the threat appears low there at this time.

Seems like things played out this way. Little more energy with the last round, but the evening arrival may have lessened the impact

[Rhino16]

I had some cool pea sized hail today from an odd storm that had a really cool streaky look from the precip / hail.

[high risk]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Seems like things played out this way. Little more energy with the last round, but the evening arrival may have lessened the impact

         Thanks for noticing!    My forecast was pretty good, except that the storms (while sub-severe) persisted all the way east into the DC Metro area this evening.   The CAMs were too quick to really disintegrate the line.