Kmlwx Posted Friday at 01:03 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 01:03 AM 9 minutes ago, high risk said: Hard to ignore that signal, but the accompanying forecast sounding suggests that it would be elevated. So it might be rotating, but the biggest threat from elevated supercells is hail, and the overall moist profile and weak lapse rates don’t really support decent hail. At this point I just want some loud thunder to wake me up from my sleep underneath the WxWatcher blanket. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Friday at 02:51 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:51 AM 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: At this point I just want some loud thunder to wake me up from my sleep underneath the WxWatcher blanket. Based on the 00Z suite, late night convection is pretty certain for areas along and north of I-70. Whether any of it makes it south towards the lower parts of Howard and Montgomery is less clear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 07:58 AM Share Posted Friday at 07:58 AM Ok then - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0390.html Mesoscale Discussion 0390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...ern WV Pnhdl...nrn VA...MD...DC...srn PA...DE...srn NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 040752Z - 040845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong, potentially damaging wind gusts, may accompany weak thunderstorm activity likely to spread east of the Blue Ridge and across the Greater Washington D.C./Baltimore metropolitan areas through 6-7 AM EDT. It is not clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...A narrow line of thunderstorms has shown some intensification, near and south of a wave or weak MCV now east of Elkins WV. This activity has been propagating rapidly eastward, along and just south of a slow moving or stalling cold front, around 50 kt, which is about the strength of the mean westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow across the Allegheny Mountains into northern Mid Atlantic. Due to generally weak deep-layer lapse rates, CAPE along this corridor is quite weak west of the mountains, but improves somewhat (CAPE to 500 J/kg) in better low-level moisture across northern Virginia through southern New Jersey. While some further intensification to the east of the Blue Ridge is possible as activity rapidly advances eastward through 11-12Z, thunderstorm intensities are likely to remain rather modest, based on forecast soundings. However, unsaturated profiles in lower/mid-levels, may contribute to evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport of rear-inflow, which may undergo some further convective augmentation. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39897751 39677548 38737539 38497760 38557915 39397855 39897751 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Friday at 08:20 AM Share Posted Friday at 08:20 AM Holy elevated convection batman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 09:44 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:44 AM 6 hours ago, high risk said: Based on the 00Z suite, late night convection is pretty certain for areas along and north of I-70. Whether any of it makes it south towards the lower parts of Howard and Montgomery is less clear. No thunder yet but some decent wind gusts. Point for the hrrr…it saw this coming yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted Friday at 09:47 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:47 AM Few showers here. No thunder. 71/67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted Friday at 09:52 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:52 AM Spoke too soon. House rattling thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Friday at 09:53 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:53 AM 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: No thunder yet but some decent wind gusts. Point for the hrrr…it saw this coming yesterday. Thundered here not long ago. Woke the kid up, who crawled into bed with me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 09:53 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:53 AM Just got one rumble… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted Friday at 10:03 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:03 AM Three flashes, two rumbles. Kind of a kayfabe thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Friday at 10:09 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:09 AM A few rumbles and two periods of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted Friday at 10:14 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:14 AM Some rolling thunder and very light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Friday at 12:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:14 PM Enjoyed the thunder and was surprised by a modest gust front, as I expected a more stable surface layer which would have prevented any downward mixing. But temperatures as the storms arrived were notably warmer than progged, so the storms may have actually been (barely) surface-based. Super disappointed in the rainfall, but the line really collapsed as it approached the 95 corridor. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 12:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:31 PM 17 minutes ago, high risk said: Enjoyed the thunder and was surprised by a modest gust front, as I expected a more stable surface layer which would have prevented any downward mixing. But temperatures as the storms arrived were notably warmer than progged, so the storms may have actually been (barely) surface-based. Super disappointed in the rainfall, but the line really collapsed as it approached the 95 corridor. Yeah maybe didn’t even get 0.1”? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Friday at 12:33 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 12:33 PM I hit my goal of being awoken by thunder! All things considered that was a decent line. Sunday looks like it has some low end potential and then we seemingly get shutout for a block of time. No real long range threats I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Friday at 06:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:58 PM 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah maybe didn’t even get 0.1”? That sucks, almost an inch here this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:48 PM 7 hours ago, Kmlwx said: I hit my goal of being awoken by thunder! All things considered that was a decent line. Sunday looks like it has some low end potential and then we seemingly get shutout for a block of time. No real long range threats I'm seeing. Looks like maybe a sneaky threat tomorrow... more out west though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Friday at 11:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:48 PM HRRR was right. Never discount an impulse riding along a front. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted yesterday at 02:37 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:37 AM 6 hours ago, yoda said: Looks like maybe a sneaky threat tomorrow... more out west though Yeah, going to be a significant temperature gradient across the area, with a lot of model variation about how the thermal boundaries set up. Convection seems likely along the boundary later in the day - not seeing forecast soundings that impress me, but I suppose that an isolated severe event can't be totally ruled out. Looking forward to the potential for more early morning rumbling tonight, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago Updated morning discussion from LWX suggests some interest later While some showers may spill across the mountains during the late morning and early afternoon, overall this should be a period of less precipitation in the forecast area. While the bulk of convection will again be west of the area, heights begin falling by late afternoon, and the moist conveyor belt begins to shift back to the southeast. Instability will be able to build south of the warm front. It appears the best overlap of these features will be the northwest corner of the forecast area, resulting in the highest chance of showers and thunderstorms. Instability is forecast to be on the lower side...however, there is enough shear for any stronger updrafts to organize and become capable of producing severe weather. All hazards could be on the table, especially if there is a supercell or two. There is a narrow corridor of overlap with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 300+ m2/s2 SRH this evening between US-50 and I-70. North of this area, it should remain stable enough to preclude surface-based convection with a lower severe threat overall; further to the south and east, less forcing and more mid-level dry air should keep convective coverage at bay. Aside from somewhat amorphous forcing and the relatively narrow corridor of favorable overlap in the parameter space, low-level CAPE may be on the low side unless more cloud breaks develop. If more cloud breaks are observed and surface heating is more efficient, higher low-level instability could raise the threat of severe/rotating storms this evening in the aforementioned corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Getting some interesting looking convection firing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago might have been a "false alarm", but I was getting a TVS on the cell NW of Leesburg on RadarScope for a bit, but it seems to have disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago might have been a "false alarm", but I was getting a TVS on the cell NW of Leesburg on RadarScope for a bit, but it seems to have disappeared.Warning from that same batch moving into eastern Frederick county. Only had rain here, but they were fattie drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Not the radar I was expecting at 59 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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