jewell2188 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 Glad the watch verified. It was always run of the mill “showers and storms” here today. We fail at snow and generally fail at severe. Wind and dry is always guaranteed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Monday at 04:50 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 04:50 PM Some major damage over the weekend in parts of the area it seems. Saw big branches and debris along I-70 from PA into Maryland. Looks like things will be relatively quiet - maybe a window for some strong storms next Tue or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Friday at 03:17 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:17 AM If the NAM Nest and HiResW ARW2 are correct, there would be a MRGL and eventually perhaps a SLGT for Saturday along and east of I-95, but they seem to be outliers with their slower timing and higher dew points (driving good instability with modest deep layer shear). Since slow timing and overmoistening are clear biases of both systems, it's unfortunately tough to buy their solution. At this point, I just hope to cash in on some heavier showers Friday evening and overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Friday at 12:16 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 12:16 PM 8 hours ago, high risk said: If the NAM Nest and HiResW ARW2 are correct, there would be a MRGL and eventually perhaps a SLGT for Saturday along and east of I-95, but they seem to be outliers with their slower timing and higher dew points (driving good instability with modest deep layer shear). Since slow timing and overmoistening are clear biases of both systems, it's unfortunately tough to buy their solution. At this point, I just hope to cash in on some heavier showers Friday evening and overnight. Other than the storms along the Mason/Dixon line last weekend, it's seemingly been a really, really, really quiet stretch for severe on the east coast. Looks like Tue is going to be focused well to our north and west and it peters out by Wednesday. I'm not sure I'm seeing any appreciable "big signal" to exit the boring period. I've been peaking at the long range stuff and CSU/CIPS/NCAR stuff and don't really see anything on the horizon. Similar to winter, it's possible a smaller event comes into focus once it gets to short range view...but for now we are snoozing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago On 4/24/2025 at 11:17 PM, high risk said: If the NAM Nest and HiResW ARW2 are correct, there would be a MRGL and eventually perhaps a SLGT for Saturday along and east of I-95, but they seem to be outliers with their slower timing and higher dew points (driving good instability with modest deep layer shear). Since slow timing and overmoistening are clear biases of both systems, it's unfortunately tough to buy their solution. At this point, I just hope to cash in on some heavier showers Friday evening and overnight. The slightly slower solution ended up verifying, and we do have a MRGL along and east of I-95 for this afternoon. There is actually some good model agreement that a broken line of thunderstorms will form around 2pm very close to I-95 in Maryland and extend at least a bit south of DC on the Virginia side. Looks like there will be some instability, but deep layer shear looks slightly weaker than it did in earlier progs, so a MRGL seems to be the right call (but a few wind reports are certainly possible, especially further east). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Token 5% MCD from SPC just now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 2 hours ago, high risk said: The slightly slower solution ended up verifying, and we do have a MRGL along and east of I-95 for this afternoon. There is actually some good model agreement that a broken line of thunderstorms will form around 2pm very close to I-95 in Maryland and extend at least a bit south of DC on the Virginia side. Looks like there will be some instability, but deep layer shear looks slightly weaker than it did in earlier progs, so a MRGL seems to be the right call (but a few wind reports are certainly possible, especially further east). We’re about to get something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Pretty decent storm... a bit of thunder and lightning but more gusty winds and torrential downpours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We’re about to get something 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Pretty decent storm... a bit of thunder and lightning but more gusty winds and torrential downpours Only had 3 rumbles of thunder, but briefly very heavy rain and a good gust front on the leading edge. Over 0.5” for the weekend! Need about 10-14” before June 21 to be prepped for death heat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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