2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

[jewell2188]

Glad the watch verified. It was always run of the mill “showers and storms” here today. We fail at snow and generally fail at severe. Wind and dry is always guaranteed lol. 

[Kmlwx]

Some major damage over the weekend in parts of the area it seems. Saw big branches and debris along I-70 from PA into Maryland.

Looks like things will be relatively quiet - maybe a window for some strong storms next Tue or so. 

[high risk]

If the NAM Nest and HiResW ARW2 are correct, there would be a MRGL and eventually perhaps a SLGT for Saturday along and east of I-95, but they seem to be outliers with their slower timing and higher dew points (driving good instability with modest deep layer shear).   Since slow timing and overmoistening are clear biases of both systems, it's unfortunately tough to buy their solution.    At this point, I just hope to cash in on some heavier showers Friday evening and overnight.

[Kmlwx]

8 hours ago, high risk said:

If the NAM Nest and HiResW ARW2 are correct, there would be a MRGL and eventually perhaps a SLGT for Saturday along and east of I-95, but they seem to be outliers with their slower timing and higher dew points (driving good instability with modest deep layer shear).   Since slow timing and overmoistening are clear biases of both systems, it's unfortunately tough to buy their solution.    At this point, I just hope to cash in on some heavier showers Friday evening and overnight.

Other than the storms along the Mason/Dixon line last weekend, it's seemingly been a really, really, really quiet stretch for severe on the east coast. Looks like Tue is going to be focused well to our north and west and it peters out by Wednesday. I'm not sure I'm seeing any appreciable "big signal" to exit the boring period. I've been peaking at the long range stuff and CSU/CIPS/NCAR stuff and don't really see anything on the horizon. Similar to winter, it's possible a smaller event comes into focus once it gets to short range view...but for now we are snoozing! 

[high risk]

On 4/24/2025 at 11:17 PM, high risk said:

If the NAM Nest and HiResW ARW2 are correct, there would be a MRGL and eventually perhaps a SLGT for Saturday along and east of I-95, but they seem to be outliers with their slower timing and higher dew points (driving good instability with modest deep layer shear).   Since slow timing and overmoistening are clear biases of both systems, it's unfortunately tough to buy their solution.    At this point, I just hope to cash in on some heavier showers Friday evening and overnight.

      The slightly slower solution ended up verifying, and we do have a MRGL along and east of I-95 for this afternoon.    There is actually some good model agreement that a broken line of thunderstorms will form around 2pm very close to I-95 in Maryland and extend at least a bit south of DC on the Virginia side.    Looks like there will be some instability, but deep layer shear looks slightly weaker than it did in earlier progs, so a MRGL seems to be the right call (but a few wind reports are certainly possible, especially further east).

[yoda]

Token 5% MCD from SPC just now 

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, high risk said:

      The slightly slower solution ended up verifying, and we do have a MRGL along and east of I-95 for this afternoon.    There is actually some good model agreement that a broken line of thunderstorms will form around 2pm very close to I-95 in Maryland and extend at least a bit south of DC on the Virginia side.    Looks like there will be some instability, but deep layer shear looks slightly weaker than it did in earlier progs, so a MRGL seems to be the right call (but a few wind reports are certainly possible, especially further east).

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