Eskimo Joe Posted Monday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:37 PM Dewpoints in the 40s are killing any severe chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Monday at 05:54 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 05:54 PM My "goal" is elevated thunderstorms at this point. Still can get that with low dew points at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Monday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:30 PM MCD our for western part of LWX CWA - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0448.html Mesoscale Discussion 0448 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Middle/Upper Ohio River Valley to the Central Appalachians. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 141818Z - 142015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will spread eastward through the afternoon into the evening. A watch will likely be issued within an hour or two for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorms are developing across southern IN this afternoon, generally focused along/ahead of an eastward-moving cold front. Ahead of this activity, continued diurnal heating amid increasing boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints) will continue to erode inhibition and support additional storm development. Steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by earlier 12Z soundings) atop the destabilizing boundary layer will yield around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, favoring a gradual increase in storm intensity through the afternoon. As 60+ kt of midlevel flow (sampled by upstream VWP data) overspreads the warm sector, very long/mostly straight hodographs (60-70 kt of effective shear) will promote splitting supercell structures, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Despite the expectation for an initially semi-discrete mode, strong outflow amid the splitting storm structures will favor gradual upscale growth into small lines and clusters with eastward extent -- with an associated increasing severe-wind risk. A watch will likely be issued for parts of the area within an hour or two. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN... LMK... LAT...LON 38248556 38918470 39248402 39638285 40028068 39977973 39747915 39357876 38847859 38237864 37707920 37408001 37228138 37038395 37138489 37338555 37818577 38248556 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Monday at 06:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:38 PM Afternoon AFD from LWX .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 18Z/2PM EDT, the Mid-Atlantic resided on the south side of a mid/upper-level jet. An enhancement to the jet was located over the lower Great Lakes. The right entrance region of this jet streak will pivot overhead this evening as a warm front lifts northward. Upstream satellite and obs suggest convective initiation will likely take place between 3-5PM EDT over the mid Ohio Valley. Given the orientation of shear and linear forcing along an approaching cold front, storms may start discrete but should grow rather quickly upscale into one or more line segments. Aided by strong flow of 50-70 kts in the 700-500 hPa layer, any line(s) should remain organized for several hours given the moistening low levels and increasing CAPE to 400-800 J/kg (locally up to 1500 J/kg immediately ahead of the front early this evening). Although not extreme, steep mid-level lapse rates from a leftover EML could exceed 8 deg C/km, which when coupled with the strong flow in the same layer will likely result in intense updrafts. The question becomes how far east/northeast the convection survives given (1) potential downsloping westerly flow off the Appalachians, and (2) increasing nocturnal stability in the boundary layer. Strong to severe wind gusts (50-70 mph) would be most likely where low-level lapse rates are steepest and the low-level inversion is shallowest, and as of mid afternoon this zone appears most likely to reside along the I-64 corridor. Farther to the north and east, although flow aloft may be just as strong (if not stronger), a deeper low-level inversion later into the evening may offset the downward transport of higher momentum air. By midnight, even well developed cold pools may have trouble efficiently mixing to the surface. Still, steep lapse rates aloft could result in spotty hail even after storms become more elevated in nature. A few instances of large (1-2 in diameter) hail cannot be ruled out given the favorable shear and steep lapse rates aloft, especially if any semi-discrete storms are observed locally. Regarding the tornado potential, there is a warm front lurking from western MD southeast to southern MD (nearing the Potomac). Right along and just on the cool side of this boundary, favorable SRH would exist for a tornado threat. But, developing low-level stability later this evening and a predominantly linear storm mode should limit any tornado threat to brief mesovortex spin ups as the storms interacts with the warm frontal zone in areas of more favorable lingering low-level CAPE. In the event that upstream convection does not develop as expected, it will likely be rather difficult to initiate intense convection locally given the time of day. Conditionally, however, the shear/lapse rate profile could result in an isolated strong to severe storm. Shower activity may liner much of the night as the surface cold front crosses and the upper trough approaches. Some potential for training is evident, but overall fast storm motions and only briefly heavier rates should limit any flood threat. This is especially the case given ongoing drought conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Monday at 07:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:27 PM Interesting that a good amount of the southern half of the PBZ CWA got put into the watch box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Monday at 08:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:11 PM 18z 3k NAM drags a big storm along the I66 corridor into southern PG county. Hrrr a bit more even through the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Monday at 09:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:30 PM Charleston WV WFO in for a rude time shortly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Monday at 09:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:31 PM Just now, yoda said: Charleston WV WFO in for a rude time shortly Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Charleston WV 528 PM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 WVC011-015-035-039-053-079-087-142215- /O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-250414T2215Z/ Mason WV-Cabell WV-Putnam WV-Kanawha WV-Roane WV-Clay WV-Jackson WV- 528 PM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MASON...EASTERN CABELL...PUTNAM...KANAWHA... SOUTHWESTERN ROANE...WEST CENTRAL CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES... At 527 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Winfield, moving east at 50 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR CROSS LANES AND SAINT ALBANS. HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. Locations impacted include... Charleston, Pinch, Winfield, Cedar Grove, Glasgow, Nitro, Liberty, Institute, St. Albans, South Charleston, Eleanor, Poca, Fraziers Bottom, Coal Fork, Hurricane, Elkview, Sissonville, Buffalo, Cross Lanes, and Clendenin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3860 8128 3835 8123 3819 8140 3843 8210 3866 8203 TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 277DEG 45KT 3850 8186 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted Monday at 09:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:34 PM 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Charleston WV WFO in for a rude time shortly Just got a tornado warning on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Monday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:40 PM Mesoscale Discussion 0449 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Areas affected...central and eastern Kentucky...far southern Ohio...and West Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138... Valid 142130Z - 142300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138 continues. SUMMARY...Multiple supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts will persist this evening. DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells has developed across southern Ohio with multiple large hail reports received thus far. The strongest of these cells is a lead supercell approaching Charleston, WV as of 2130 UTC. This supercell has a history of 2 inch hail and latest MRMS data suggests 2+ inch hail (perhaps the size of baseballs) remains possible. The environment downstream of this supercell remains favorable with 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 45 to 50 knots of shear and visible satellite showing an expansive agitated cumulus field. Therefore, expect this 2+ inch hail threat to persist for at least a few more hours across West Virginia. Thunderstorm activity has been limited south of the Ohio River thus far, and visible satellite imagery does not appear to indicate additional thunderstorms are imminent. However, the environment remains uncapped and as mid-level temperatures continue to cool, some thunderstorms will be possible along the front this evening. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 38908503 39378376 39618195 39728086 39457988 38847949 37627973 37048123 36998290 36878407 37048569 37998560 38908503 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Monday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:48 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Monday at 09:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:49 PM Watch coming soon for most of LWX CWA @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe @high risk @George BM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Monday at 09:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:54 PM https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0450.html Mesoscale Discussion 0450 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025 Areas affected...Blue Ridge into central/northern Virginia...western/central Maryland...Washington DC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 142148Z - 142345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A threat for damaging winds and large hail will persist into the Blue Ridge and eastward this evening. A watch is likely in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms, including a supercell with a history of large to very-large hail, continue to move quickly (45-50 kts) eastward late this afternoon. Dewpoints near and ahead of these storms are in the low 50s F. Models have continued to suggest some amount of upscale growth is expected with this activity. Even if this does not occur, these fast moving cells/linear segments will be capable of swaths of damaging winds and large hail. From the Blue Ridge eastward, dewpoints have slowly climbed into the low 50s F over the last couple of hours. Based off of current observations, dewpoints could increase another 1-2 F prior to storm arrival. There will be at least a narrow window where storms could remain surface based in the Blue Ridge vicinity. Farther east dewpoints and temperatures are lower. With some additional surface cooling expected, storms will have greater potential to be slightly elevated with eastward extent. However, forecast soundings show a dry sub-cloud layer that would support a continued risk of damaging downburst winds even with elevated storms. A watch will likely be needed in the next hour. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 04/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 39347923 39647877 39557757 39057689 38407673 37557679 37447706 37277796 37257910 37497942 39347923 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted Monday at 10:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:54 PM Severe thunderstorm watch to the south and southwest. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 139 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 650 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC003-015-033-047-049-061-065-075-079-085-087-091-099-109-113- 125-137-139-145-153-157-165-171-177-179-187-540-630-660-683-685- 760-790-820-150500- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0139.250414T2250Z-250415T0500Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBEMARLE AUGUSTA CAROLINE CULPEPER CUMBERLAND FAUQUIER FLUVANNA GOOCHLAND GREENE HANOVER HENRICO HIGHLAND KING GEORGE LOUISA MADISON NELSON ORANGE PAGE POWHATAN PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD WARREN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLOTTESVILLE FREDERICKSBURG HARRISONBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK RICHMOND STAUNTON WAYNESBORO $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Monday at 10:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:54 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Monday at 10:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:55 PM 50/30 hail probs URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 139 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 PM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Central Virginia Eastern West Virginia * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 650 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Supercells will continue to move eastward this evening while posing a threat for large to very large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter. Scattered damaging winds with peak gusts of 60-70 mph will also be likely with any clusters that can form while also spreading quickly eastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Staunton VA to 35 miles north of Richmond VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Monday at 11:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:20 PM Showers/storms starting to initiate in the i81 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted Monday at 11:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:24 PM 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Showers/storms starting to initiate in the i81 corridor Can see the rapidly darkening skies off to the west here at work in Charlottesville... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Monday at 11:26 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:26 PM Already lightning even with the mini cells/showers. WV having a heck of a day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Monday at 11:26 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:26 PM Radar presentation from LWX is kind of odd - unusual to see a big area of precip and then stuff embedded in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Monday at 11:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:55 PM Front Royal storm looks a little bit interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Monday at 11:57 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:57 PM 1 minute ago, yoda said: Front Royal storm looks interesting... Good amount of lightning with that stuff so far. But pretty compact cells that have that "struggling updraft" look to them. We'll see if they can grow upscale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted yesterday at 12:09 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:09 AM I hear a little thunder in the distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted yesterday at 12:16 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:16 AM That has been a impressive lead cell for sure , form southern Ohio to now near Wintergreen... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted yesterday at 12:29 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:29 AM Looks like a big shield of stratiform rain with embedded thunder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted yesterday at 12:30 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:30 AM Booming thunder here. Best action with this first batch looks to slip south of my yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted yesterday at 12:44 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:44 AM This looks to be turning into exactly what the HRRR forecasted most of the day (save for a few runs). Looks like big time cells go WAY south of the metro areas and then a mod-heavy batch of rainfall sweeps through for the rest of us with some embedded thunder. Credit to the HRRR for actually seemingly getting the idea right way earlier today and sticking to it for the most part. Save for a few off runs last night and one or two during the day today - it held pretty steady once it trended away from the Maryland/DC area Uh tracks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted yesterday at 12:55 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:55 AM There’s one cell that’s kinda beelining in my direction. Not sure if it hold, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted yesterday at 01:07 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:07 AM Some T&L has commenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted yesterday at 01:13 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:13 AM Looks like core is gonna slide south of mby, but saw a little lightning out of it. Now raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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