2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

9 minutes ago, high risk said:

Hard to ignore that signal, but the accompanying forecast sounding suggests that it would be elevated.  So it might be rotating, but the biggest threat from elevated supercells is hail, and the overall moist profile and weak lapse rates don’t really support decent hail.

At this point I just want some loud thunder to wake me up from my sleep underneath the WxWatcher blanket. 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

At this point I just want some loud thunder to wake me up from my sleep underneath the WxWatcher blanket. 

          Based on the 00Z suite,  late night convection is pretty certain for areas along and north of I-70.   Whether any of it makes it south towards the lower parts of Howard and Montgomery is less clear.

[yoda]

Ok then - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0390.html

 

 

   Mesoscale Discussion 0390
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

   Areas affected...ern WV Pnhdl...nrn VA...MD...DC...srn PA...DE...srn
   NJ

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 040752Z - 040845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong, potentially damaging wind gusts, may accompany
   weak thunderstorm activity likely to spread east of the Blue Ridge
   and across the Greater Washington D.C./Baltimore metropolitan areas
   through 6-7 AM EDT.  It is not clear that a severe weather watch is
   needed, but trends are being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...A narrow line of thunderstorms has shown some
   intensification, near and south of a wave or weak MCV now east of
   Elkins WV.  This activity has been propagating rapidly eastward,
   along and just south of a slow moving or stalling cold front, 
   around 50 kt, which is about the strength of the mean westerly
   deep-layer ambient mean flow across the Allegheny Mountains into
   northern Mid Atlantic.  

   Due to generally weak deep-layer lapse rates, CAPE along this
   corridor is quite weak west of the mountains, but improves somewhat
   (CAPE to 500 J/kg) in better low-level moisture across northern
   Virginia through southern New Jersey.  While some further
   intensification to the east of the Blue Ridge is possible as
   activity rapidly advances eastward through 11-12Z, thunderstorm
   intensities are likely to remain rather modest, based on forecast
   soundings.  However, unsaturated profiles in lower/mid-levels, may
   contribute to evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport of
   rear-inflow, which may undergo some further convective augmentation.

   ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39897751 39677548 38737539 38497760 38557915 39397855
               39897751 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

[Eskimo Joe]

Holy elevated convection batman.

[WxUSAF]

6 hours ago, high risk said:

          Based on the 00Z suite,  late night convection is pretty certain for areas along and north of I-70.   Whether any of it makes it south towards the lower parts of Howard and Montgomery is less clear.

No thunder yet but some decent wind gusts. Point for the hrrr…it saw this coming yesterday.

[weatherCCB]

Few showers here.    No thunder. 
71/67

[weatherCCB]

Spoke too soon.  House rattling thunder.

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

No thunder yet but some decent wind gusts. Point for the hrrr…it saw this coming yesterday.

Thundered here not long ago. Woke the kid up, who crawled into bed with me lol

[WxUSAF]

Just got one rumble…

[09-10 analogy]

Three flashes, two rumbles. Kind of a kayfabe thunderstorm. 

[aldie 22]

A few rumbles and two periods of heavy rain. 

[BlizzardNole]

Some rolling thunder and very light rain

[high risk]

Enjoyed the thunder and was surprised by a modest gust front, as I expected a more stable surface layer which would have prevented any downward mixing.  But temperatures as the storms arrived were notably warmer than progged, so the storms may have actually been (barely) surface-based.   Super disappointed in the rainfall, but the line really collapsed as it approached the 95 corridor. 

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, high risk said:

Enjoyed the thunder and was surprised by a modest gust front, as I expected a more stable surface layer which would have prevented any downward mixing.  But temperatures as the storms arrived were notably warmer than progged, so the storms may have actually been (barely) surface-based.   Super disappointed in the rainfall, but the line really collapsed as it approached the 95 corridor. 

Yeah maybe didn’t even get 0.1”?

[Kmlwx]

I hit my goal of being awoken by thunder! All things considered that was a decent line. 

Sunday looks like it has some low end potential and then we seemingly get shutout for a block of time. No real long range threats I'm seeing. 

[mappy]

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah maybe didn’t even get 0.1”?

That sucks, almost an inch here this morning

[yoda]

7 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

I hit my goal of being awoken by thunder! All things considered that was a decent line. 

Sunday looks like it has some low end potential and then we seemingly get shutout for a block of time. No real long range threats I'm seeing. 

Looks like maybe a sneaky threat tomorrow... more out west though

[Eskimo Joe]

HRRR was right. Never discount an impulse riding along a front.

 

[high risk]

6 hours ago, yoda said:

Looks like maybe a sneaky threat tomorrow... more out west though

       Yeah, going to be a significant temperature gradient across the area, with a lot of model variation about how the thermal boundaries set up.    Convection seems likely along the boundary later in the day - not seeing forecast soundings that impress me, but I suppose that an isolated severe event can't be totally ruled out.      Looking forward to the potential for more early morning rumbling tonight, though.