2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Which is interesting because if you take a peak at the 12z NAM Nest soundings, you'd think something would go.  But looking deeper, I see ConvT is 84 degrees - so I'm assuming that since we aren't forecasted to reach that temperature, the NAM Nest sim radar isn't showing convection.  Am I reading that correctly or am I offbase?

Correct. We're more than ten degrees below the convective temp. That isn't a good sign for robust convection.

[Kmlwx]

Slight risk removed. 

[dailylurker]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Slight risk removed. 

We suck at weather lol

[Eskimo Joe]

33 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Slight risk removed. 

Now we can cook with no pressure.

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Now we can cook with no pressure.

The sky is mostly clear and the south wind just picked up. It feels tropical. It feels like the ingredients are here. We just need a trigger. 

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Now we can cook with no pressure.

While MLLR aren't "good" - they also aren't as paltry as some of our other events.

[Kmlwx]

HRRR continues to suggest that *IF* there is a chance - it's going to be between 0z and 3z in a little cluster that comes through. It seems to be weakening as it comes through on the latest run - but while it is well west of the area it has some decent UH tracks. 

[mappy]

74/66 after morning fog and rain. Still mostly cloudy with a few peaks of sun every now and again. Maybe stuff will pop up? 

[Eskimo Joe]

Latest SPC mesoanalysis has ~50kt jet aloft and we're sitting on a CAPE tongue. Might be enough to get some cluster moving through this afternoon. I'd like to see us tack on another 3 to 5 degrees to be safe though.

[weatherCCB]

Partly sunny here

78/68

[yoda]

18z HRRR made things really interesting in MD overnight lol

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z HRRR made things really interesting in MD overnight lol

Yes it did

[yoda]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yes it did

Looks like a small MCS that rides the WF or what's left of it?

[WxUSAF]

22 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like a small MCS that rides the WF or what's left of it?

18z 3k NAM much closer to that than its own 12z run

[Kmlwx]

The various models seem to kill that activity entering WV - but I could see a scenario in which they are overplaying the death of that complex, and in reality that stuff rejuvenates off the higher terrain to give us a cluster. Would not be the first time the modeling developed a "new" cluster that ended up being actual remnants or an existing cluster. 

[Kmlwx]

I could go out in a flaming dumpster fire - but the TOR warned cell in extreme SW WV is what I am watching despite the modeling focusing north of us. If that can sustain despite the guidance, and perhaps get enhancement from the proximity of the boundary - that could be for us later. 

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I could go out in a flaming dumpster fire - but the TOR warned cell in extreme SW WV is what I am watching despite the modeling focusing north of us. If that can sustain despite the guidance, and perhaps get enhancement from the proximity of the boundary - that could be for us later. 

Looks like a pretty decent looking hook

[Kmlwx]

My PWS is showing a 68.9 dewpoint YUCK! 

[yoda]

MCD just came out for WV into VA to just southwest of DC 

[Kmlwx]

It's only a 20% MCD *but* I love when I make a statement that SPC and WxUSAF agree with! I must be learning!  

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Portions of West Virginia and northern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 032031Z - 032300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms moving into West Virginia may pose a threat of
severe weather this afternoon and evening.  Convective trends will
continue to be monitored, although a watch appears unlikely at this
time.

DISCUSSION...Despite midlevel height rises across the area,
low-level warm-air advection continues to support thunderstorm
development across eastern Kentucky.  The storms are expected to
continue moving eastward across West Virginia, though high clouds
and poorer boundary-layer moisture (per 18Z RNK sounding) have
limited destabilization.  With low-level flow (and attendant warm
advection) forecast to increase into the evening, there is a threat
for the convection to persist.  Given the sufficient low-level and
deep-layer shear across the area, these storms will have the
potential to produce damaging winds, hail, and a tornado. Trends
will be monitored through the evening, but a watch appears to be
unlikely at this time.

..Jirak/Guyer.. 04/03/2025

[yoda]

That sounds more like a "we'll re-evaluate in a few hours" MCD than a no chance of a watch

[yoda]

81/64 at DCA at 5pm

[weatherCCB]

78/70

[Eskimo Joe]

22z special sounding from Millersville University shows a stout cap at around 700mb

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Definitely a big bust on severe wx in the area today.  It looks like the only place that is hitting is way down near Arkansas and Tenn. 

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Definitely a big bust on severe wx in the area today.  It looks like the only place that is hitting is way down near Arkansas and Tenn. 

is a slight risk that was downgraded to a marginal really a bust?   The models were very clear that storms would be isolated at best.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Well there's no thunderstorms, like at all.. I hope this cap holding is not a trend that continues into the Summer like it did last year. 

[Kmlwx]

HRRR continues to be insistent that in the pre-dawn hours something nasty will roll through northern Maryland. I remain skeptical...absurd UH track on the latest run. 

[Eskimo Joe]

39 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

HRRR continues to be insistent that in the pre-dawn hours something nasty will roll through northern Maryland. I remain skeptical...absurd UH track on the latest run. 

Bring it

[high risk]

41 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

HRRR continues to be insistent that in the pre-dawn hours something nasty will roll through northern Maryland. I remain skeptical...absurd UH track on the latest run. 

Hard to ignore that signal, but the accompanying forecast sounding suggests that it would be elevated.  So it might be rotating, but the biggest threat from elevated supercells is hail, and the overall moist profile and weak lapse rates don’t really support decent hail.