yoda Posted Sunday at 02:51 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:51 AM Wouldn't mind that 00z NAM sim radar at 00z/03z Tues... that looks nice Rather would take the 00z HRRR though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Sunday at 06:13 AM Share Posted Sunday at 06:13 AM Well then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Sunday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:42 PM Looking at the morning guidance, there are some definite things to like for tomorrow: forcing arriving at at favorable time of day, good deep layer shear, a warm air mass. Instability wil, however, be a question mark due to modest moisture. The NAM Nest gets dew points into the low 60s which allows for ~1000 CAPE. That would easily support a severe threat. Other guidance has lower dew points, and the instability is lower, unless intense heating compensates. A SLGT is certainly justified; I can’t see an ENH into the DC area at this time unless there is high confidence in instability. I’m also not seeing a 5 TOR threat this far north unless something increases the progged low-level shear. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM 1730z D2 is out. Not many changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Sunday at 09:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:27 PM 18z hrrr and NAM 3k look good for rain and thunder at least, which is all I care about 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted Monday at 01:52 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:52 AM I predict thunder and a smattering of downed bradford pears that will verify base level svr. t-storm warnings. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Monday at 01:10 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:10 PM Well if nothing else the 12z IAD sounding has 754 surface CAPE already. Seems likely many of us will see rain/thunder at a minimum today. Side note - it's weird seeing the swath of missing soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted Monday at 01:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:34 PM 23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Well if nothing else the 12z IAD sounding has 754 surface CAPE already. Seems likely many of us will see rain/thunder at a minimum today. Side note - it's weird seeing the swath of missing soundings. Was surprised to see as much soon as we have so far here in Jessup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted Monday at 02:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:22 PM Sunny here now 74/64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Monday at 02:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:36 PM Just went for a walk it's warm but not humid with a good amount of sun. Hoping to get some good rain this evening as my area is in the extreme drought color Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Monday at 03:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:26 PM FYI, 15z sounding from Millersville University just to our northeast in Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted Monday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:04 PM 15% hail area removed from midday D1 update - otherwise, pretty much the same for our neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Monday at 07:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:05 PM Generic mesoscale discussion out for those south of I-66 / US 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Monday at 07:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:43 PM And a less enthusiastic one https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0330.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Monday at 07:44 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 07:44 PM One nice thing is that the Warn on Forecast domain includes us. More model runs to wring our hands over!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted Monday at 08:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:03 PM 19 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: And a less enthusiastic one https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0330.html Storms are starting to pop as suggested on the Meso discussion, so we may see a watch soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Monday at 08:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:47 PM Radar lit up in a hurry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Monday at 08:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:50 PM Decent light show forming looking west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Monday at 08:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:51 PM I guess I prob shouldn’t be on my balcony rn. Sky is beginning to look aggressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Monday at 09:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:01 PM 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Radar lit up in a hurry Subtle surface boundary (bay breeze?) drifting west through Baltimore. Looks like the Towson and Baltimore City mesonet sites are showing a southeast wind, while everything else if firmly southwest. Might act as a focus for some better storms in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Monday at 09:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:04 PM 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Subtle surface boundary (bay breeze?) drifting west through Baltimore. Looks like the Towson and Baltimore City mesonet sites are showing a southeast wind, while everything else if firmly southwest. Might act as a focus for some better storms in a few hours. Flight into BWI tonight has been delayed 90 minutes without any storms… 2.5 hours to go til takeoff still. I’m rooting against anything even a little substantial, to say the least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Monday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:26 PM Very cool looking clouds. It looks like they are trying to rotate a bit in these cells. Maybe I'm trying to make it happen. LOL! The cell NW of Roundhill looks really cool! SW of Winchester seems to be trying to go severe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted Monday at 09:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:39 PM Wow that Bay Breeze boundary is sharp. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Monday at 11:01 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:01 PM TBWI shows outflow moving out ahead of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted yesterday at 01:27 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:27 AM 4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Flight into BWI tonight has been delayed 90 minutes without any storms… 2.5 hours to go til takeoff still. I’m rooting against anything even a little substantial, to say the least. Trying again tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 08:34 AM Share Posted yesterday at 08:34 AM Conditional risk on Thursday afternoon FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted yesterday at 11:34 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:34 AM This is a wild first paragraph of the forecast discussion from Paducah, KY: Unfortunately, this is no April`s Fools joke. More potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, and an epic heavy rainfall and flash flooding event is expected Wednesday through the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted yesterday at 01:15 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:15 PM 1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said: This is a wild first paragraph of the forecast discussion from Paducah, KY: Unfortunately, this is no April`s Fools joke. More potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, and an epic heavy rainfall and flash flooding event is expected Wednesday through the weekend. How come we never get epic weather lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted yesterday at 02:38 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:38 PM NAM and NAM nest seem better with parameters for Thursday now - but sim reflectivity doesn't really have any initiation at least on the panels I've seen (through 0z Fri). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted yesterday at 03:48 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:48 PM 4 hours ago, BlizzardNole said: This is a wild first paragraph of the forecast discussion from Paducah, KY: Unfortunately, this is no April`s Fools joke. More potentially significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, and an epic heavy rainfall and flash flooding event is expected Wednesday through the weekend. The QPF signals for that event are remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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