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2025 Severe Weather General Discussion


Kmlwx
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Looking at the morning guidance, there are some definite things to like for tomorrow:  forcing arriving at at favorable time of day, good deep layer shear, a warm air mass.    Instability wil, however, be a question mark due to modest moisture.  The NAM Nest gets dew points into the low 60s which allows for ~1000 CAPE.  That would easily support a severe threat.  Other guidance has lower dew points, and the instability is lower, unless intense heating compensates.   A SLGT is certainly justified; I can’t see an ENH into the DC area at this time unless there is high confidence in instability.  I’m also not seeing a 5 TOR threat this far north unless something increases the progged low-level shear. 

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23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Well if nothing else the 12z IAD sounding has 754 surface CAPE already. Seems likely many of us will see rain/thunder at a minimum today. 

Side note - it's weird seeing the swath of missing soundings. 

Was surprised to see as much soon as we have so far here in Jessup.

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Radar lit up in a hurry

Subtle surface boundary (bay breeze?) drifting west through Baltimore. Looks like the Towson and Baltimore City mesonet sites are showing a southeast wind, while everything else if firmly southwest. Might act as a focus for some better storms in a few hours.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Subtle surface boundary (bay breeze?) drifting west through Baltimore. Looks like the Towson and Baltimore City mesonet sites are showing a southeast wind, while everything else if firmly southwest. Might act as a focus for some better storms in a few hours.

Flight into BWI tonight has been delayed 90 minutes without any storms… 2.5 hours to go til takeoff still. I’m rooting against anything even a little substantial, to say the least. 

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This is a wild first paragraph of the forecast discussion from Paducah, KY:

Unfortunately, this is no April`s Fools joke. More potentially
significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and
evening, and an epic heavy rainfall and flash flooding event
is expected Wednesday through the weekend.
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1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

This is a wild first paragraph of the forecast discussion from Paducah, KY:

Unfortunately, this is no April`s Fools joke. More potentially
significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and
evening, and an epic heavy rainfall and flash flooding event
is expected Wednesday through the weekend.

How come we never get epic weather lol

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4 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

This is a wild first paragraph of the forecast discussion from Paducah, KY:

Unfortunately, this is no April`s Fools joke. More potentially
significant severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and
evening, and an epic heavy rainfall and flash flooding event
is expected Wednesday through the weekend.

The QPF signals for that event are remarkable.  

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