yoda Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 FDK/Walkersville getting smoked per Radarscope... nearing 70 dBz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1 minute ago, high risk said: It has nicely cooled aloft. This is what I was suggesting earlier that there might be a window for a couple of hours past sunset with a severe threat, as mid-level cooling would compensate for surface cooling. Unfortunately, with the line (or whatever is left of it) not getting into the DC area for a few more hours, I'm just hoping for a rumble or two of thunder at this point. The good(?) news is that the surface is hanging in there so far. I’m 66/61. IAD is 69 still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 3 minutes ago, yoda said: FDK/Walkersville getting smoked per Radarscope... nearing 70 dBz Good hail up there. Not huge, but a lot of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 TVS sig near Madison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Image from my weather project... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 17 Author Share Posted March 17 Looks like things will be quiet for the next block of time locally. Still worth watching that March 25th timeframe but seems to have trended away from a severe threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 18 Author Share Posted March 18 Sub-severe gusty showers possible on Thursday afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Maybe something in the Sunday into Tuesday timeframe of next week? Large 15% day 7 from Michigan south to the GoM... day 8 has a mention of us but no outlooked area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 3 hours ago, yoda said: Maybe something in the Sunday into Tuesday timeframe of next week? Large 15% day 7 from Michigan south to the GoM... day 8 has a mention of us but no outlooked area That discussion indicates we will have similar issues to our prior severe "threats" this year so far. Thermodynamics likely to be lacking. Though again - the further we get into spring, the "easier" it gets to not get wedged in...though if you ask Eskimo Joe you can probably still count on getting wedged in even into June lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 38 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That discussion indicates we will have similar issues to our prior severe "threats" this year so far. Thermodynamics likely to be lacking. Though again - the further we get into spring, the "easier" it gets to not get wedged in...though if you ask Eskimo Joe you can probably still count on getting wedged in even into June lol. The wedge always holds....until it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: The wedge always holds....until it doesn't. It could be July/August and we'd find a way to cloud over just in time to squash instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 Way out there of course - but the 12z GFS pushes the system through too early in the day I think, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 4 hours ago, Kmlwx said: It could be July/August and we'd find a way to cloud over just in time to squash instability That's why I'm such a big believer in EMLs. They are vital in overcoming the various mesoscale fail modes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's why I'm such a big believer in EMLs. They are vital in overcoming the various mesoscale fail modes. They are just so unusual and finicky - and they often are super cagey at range. And the best we can *usually* hope for is a modified EML that loses a lot of punch as it gets to use. The "big events" are the ones that really have a robust one. I haven't done a deep dive - but I'm guessing June 2008 had one, we all know June 2012 had one. Minus an EML - tropical action going to our west is always a good bet for tornadoes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 Instability for next Monday improved on the Euro it seems. Timing also seems to look a bit better on the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 17 hours ago, Kmlwx said: They are just so unusual and finicky - and they often are super cagey at range. And the best we can *usually* hope for is a modified EML that loses a lot of punch as it gets to use. The "big events" are the ones that really have a robust one. I haven't done a deep dive - but I'm guessing June 2008 had one, we all know June 2012 had one. Minus an EML - tropical action going to our west is always a good bet for tornadoes. Quick look at the SPC mesoscale analysis archive. MLLRs June 4, 2008: 6.5-7C/km (modestly steep) MLLRs June 29, 2012: 8+C/km (very steep). Evening sounding confirmed MLLRs of 8.6C/km. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Wednesday at 02:45 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:45 AM Since it's quite severe-wise here, I recommend checking out the setup for Wednesday in the Pacific Northwest. Great shear with the intense approaching trough and surprising amounts of instability. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Wednesday at 11:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:53 PM 21 hours ago, high risk said: Since it's quite severe-wise here, I recommend checking out the setup for Wednesday in the Pacific Northwest. Great shear with the intense approaching trough and surprising amounts of instability. Rare: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 11:23 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:23 AM Oh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Friday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:24 PM 5 hours ago, yoda said: Oh It bears watching for sure, but events here in the spring in which the orientation of the cold front is parallel to the steering flow tend to not work so well, as we get lots of clouds and multiple rounds of stabilizing showers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:32 PM 7 minutes ago, high risk said: It bears watching for sure, but events here in the spring in which the orientation of the cold front is parallel to the steering flow tend to not work so well, as we get lots of clouds and multiple rounds of stabilizing showers. True. 12z NAM soundings were intriguing though, granted it's at the end of its run at 81 and 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 08:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:58 PM Hmmm... sounds tasty for early April - from this afternoon LWX AFD LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement that a potent shortwave and associated surface low will track northeastward from the Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley on Monday. A trailing cold front will extend southwestward from the low, and will approach the area from the Ohio Valley over the course of the day. Large scale ascent downstream of an approaching broader longwave trough will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms across the area Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Prior to the storms, it should be a very warm day, with highs climbing into the mid 70s to lower 80s. When combined with dewpoints climbing into the upper 50s to near 60 and cooling temperatures aloft, this will result in the development of surface based instability, with many model solutions showing around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Winds aloft will also be rather impressive, with a low-level jet of around 50 knots at 850 hPa, and continued strong winds up through the tropopause. Such a combination of instability and ample deep layer shear may lead to the development of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday evening. SPC currently has all of the forecast area outlooked in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted Friday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:41 PM Actually really like this setup for some semi-discrete or discrete cellular activity (as shown by the NAM). While the best forcing goes north with the surface low and south with some trailing mid-level forcing and better cape, there is still some forcing for vertical motion here and some weak capping with halfway decent CAPE. Could be just enough to suppress crapvection and allow for more discrete activity to thrive, esp towards/just after sunset. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Saturday at 03:49 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:49 AM 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted Saturday at 07:03 AM Share Posted Saturday at 07:03 AM Interested to see what happens with the morsels of CAPE and LLJ combo… I have some guesses, but will wait until tomorrow… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 07:39 AM Share Posted Saturday at 07:39 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:05 AM Share Posted Saturday at 08:05 AM @high risk @George BM @Eskimo Joe @Kmlwx LWX talking up Monday severe threat in this morning's AFD: By Monday, the conglomerate upper trough will approach and then cross the Mid-Atlantic. The surface cold front is rather potent. There is some spread in the guidance as to the depth, speed, and amplitude of the upper trough especially by Monday night, with some suggesting a negative tilt. The more amplified guidance develops a stronger wave of low pressure nearby or overhead Monday evening, which would result in more widespread showers and thunderstorms with perhaps multiple rounds. This may also cause the surface front to slow a bit, which would mean more (beneficial) rain. Regardless of the exact trough evolution, guidance is in good agreement on (1) modest surface heating through broken clouds ahead of the trough resulting in 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and (2) strong SW flow of 40-50 knots in the 850-700 hPa layer. These factors would lend to a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. All severe modes (i.e. damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes) would be possible, but hail and tornadoes would be more likely if storms were to remain more discrete and/or surface winds were to become more backed (this is most likely in the more amplified scenario, as is a more organized line or lines of convection which would heighten the damaging wind risk). 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Saturday at 11:48 AM Share Posted Saturday at 11:48 AM 3 hours ago, yoda said: @high risk @George BM @Eskimo Joe @Kmlwx LWX talking up Monday severe threat in this morning's AFD: By Monday, the conglomerate upper trough will approach and then cross the Mid-Atlantic. The surface cold front is rather potent. There is some spread in the guidance as to the depth, speed, and amplitude of the upper trough especially by Monday night, with some suggesting a negative tilt. The more amplified guidance develops a stronger wave of low pressure nearby or overhead Monday evening, which would result in more widespread showers and thunderstorms with perhaps multiple rounds. This may also cause the surface front to slow a bit, which would mean more (beneficial) rain. Regardless of the exact trough evolution, guidance is in good agreement on (1) modest surface heating through broken clouds ahead of the trough resulting in 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and (2) strong SW flow of 40-50 knots in the 850-700 hPa layer. These factors would lend to a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. All severe modes (i.e. damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes) would be possible, but hail and tornadoes would be more likely if storms were to remain more discrete and/or surface winds were to become more backed (this is most likely in the more amplified scenario, as is a more organized line or lines of convection which would heighten the damaging wind risk). Sounds hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 09:11 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:11 PM Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to intensify as it moves northeastward from the Lower Great Lakes into southeast Canada through the day Monday morning in tandem with a leading shortwave trough. A trailing cold front is expected to push east/southeast into the upper OH River Valley and lower MS Valley/Southeast early Monday morning as a second low-amplitude wave traverses the eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along this front as it continues to push into New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and into the southeast states through the late afternoon and evening hours. ...Central Gulf States... Strong to severe thunderstorms may be ongoing by 12z Monday as a squall line forced along the cold front continues to push southeast across MS and AL. A combination of rich low-level moisture ahead of the line, diurnal heating, strong low to mid-level flow, and broad scale ascent ahead of the secondary upper wave should help maintain convective intensity into the afternoon hours. A corridor of damaging/severe winds, and potentially embedded tornadoes, appears probable from central MS into AL and western GA. ...Central Appalachians... Thunderstorm development along the front is expected by early to mid-afternoon from the upper OH Valley southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. Returning moisture through the Carolinas northward into eastern PA/western NY, combined with mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, should support sufficient buoyancy for deep convection, though buoyancy values should diminish with northward extent across the central Appalachians. Moderate flow within the lowest few kilometers should support a damaging wind threat as convection matures along the front across the upper OH Valley. Further south, stronger ascent ahead of the secondary upper wave should promote better storm organization, including the potential for semi-discrete cells and/or organized linear segments. Medium-range guidance suggests low-level winds will strengthen across the Mid-Atlantic region as a weak secondary low deepens through late afternoon in the lee of the Appalachians, which may support an enlargement of the 0-3 km hodograph and a locally higher tornado threat across the Carolinas into VA. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:39 PM Pretty good looking sim radar on the 18z NAM at 00z/03z Tuesday 12z and 18z NAM NEST sim radars looked decent too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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