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2025 Severe Weather General Discussion


Kmlwx
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1 minute ago, high risk said:

           It has nicely cooled aloft.    This is what I was suggesting earlier that there might be a window for a couple of hours past sunset with a severe threat, as mid-level cooling would compensate for surface cooling.   Unfortunately, with the line (or whatever is left of it) not getting into the DC area for a few more hours, I'm just hoping for a rumble or two of thunder at this point.

The good(?) news is that the surface is hanging in there so far.  I’m 66/61.  IAD is 69 still.

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3 hours ago, yoda said:

Maybe something in the Sunday into Tuesday timeframe of next week?  Large 15% day 7 from Michigan south to the GoM... day 8 has a mention of us but no outlooked area

That discussion indicates we will have similar issues to our prior severe "threats" this year so far. Thermodynamics likely to be lacking. Though again - the further we get into spring, the "easier" it gets to not get wedged in...though if you ask Eskimo Joe you can probably still count on getting wedged in even into June lol. 

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38 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

That discussion indicates we will have similar issues to our prior severe "threats" this year so far. Thermodynamics likely to be lacking. Though again - the further we get into spring, the "easier" it gets to not get wedged in...though if you ask Eskimo Joe you can probably still count on getting wedged in even into June lol. 

The wedge always holds....until it doesn't. 

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11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's why I'm such a big believer in EMLs. They are vital in overcoming the various mesoscale fail modes.

They are just so unusual and finicky - and they often are super cagey at range. And the best we can *usually* hope for is a modified EML that loses a lot of punch as it gets to use. The "big events" are the ones that really have a robust one. 

I haven't done a deep dive - but I'm guessing June 2008 had one, we all know June 2012 had one. 

Minus an EML - tropical action going to our west is always a good bet for tornadoes. 

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17 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

They are just so unusual and finicky - and they often are super cagey at range. And the best we can *usually* hope for is a modified EML that loses a lot of punch as it gets to use. The "big events" are the ones that really have a robust one. 

I haven't done a deep dive - but I'm guessing June 2008 had one, we all know June 2012 had one. 

Minus an EML - tropical action going to our west is always a good bet for tornadoes. 

Quick look at the SPC mesoscale analysis archive.

MLLRs June 4, 2008: 6.5-7C/km (modestly steep)

MLLRs June 29, 2012: 8+C/km (very steep). Evening sounding confirmed MLLRs of 8.6C/km.

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5 hours ago, yoda said:

Oh

spccoday4.severe.latest.png?v=719

 

  It bears watching for sure, but events here in the spring in which the orientation of the cold front is parallel to the steering flow tend to not work so well, as we get lots of clouds and multiple rounds of stabilizing showers.

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7 minutes ago, high risk said:

  It bears watching for sure, but events here in the spring in which the orientation of the cold front is parallel to the steering flow tend to not work so well, as we get lots of clouds and multiple rounds of stabilizing showers.

True.  12z NAM soundings were intriguing though, granted it's at the end of its run at 81 and 84 hours

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Hmmm... sounds tasty for early April - from this afternoon LWX AFD 

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement that a potent
shortwave and associated surface low will track northeastward from
the Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley on Monday. A trailing
cold front will extend southwestward from the low, and will approach
the area from the Ohio Valley over the course of the day. Large
scale ascent downstream of an approaching broader longwave trough
will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms across the
area Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Prior to the storms, it
should be a very warm day, with highs climbing into the mid 70s to
lower 80s. When combined with dewpoints climbing into the upper 50s
to near 60 and cooling temperatures aloft, this will result in the
development of surface based instability, with many model solutions
showing around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Winds aloft will also be
rather impressive, with a low-level jet of around 50 knots at 850
hPa, and continued strong winds up through the tropopause. Such a
combination of instability and ample deep layer shear may lead to
the development of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday
evening. SPC currently has all of the forecast area outlooked in a
Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday.

 

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Actually really like this setup for some semi-discrete or discrete cellular activity (as shown by the NAM). While the best forcing goes north with the surface low and south with some trailing mid-level forcing and better cape, there is still some forcing for vertical motion here and some weak capping with halfway decent CAPE. Could be just enough to suppress crapvection and allow for more discrete activity to thrive, esp towards/just after sunset.

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