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2025 Severe Weather General Discussion


Kmlwx
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All the dynamic parameters are screaming tornado potential. The thermo's are a bit lacking but if we get some sunshine.... All we need is storm mode.

 

I mean... this is damn good looking (boxed average for MoCo/Howard/Frederick/Caroll
 

hrrr_2025031618_004_area_38.97-39.66.-77.44--76.73.png

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1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

All the dynamic parameters are screaming tornado potential. The thermo's are a bit lacking but if we get some sunshine.... All we need is storm mode.

Nice to see you chiming in! I wonder if we actually will get some decent instability with the sunshine arriving for many of us. But my main limiting factor at that point would be if the storms arrive too late once the sun has already set. HRRR seems to suggest it could be 0-3z before some of us see that line. 

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Nice to see you chiming in! I wonder if we actually will get some decent instability with the sunshine arriving for many of us. But my main limiting factor at that point would be if the storms arrive too late once the sun has already set. HRRR seems to suggest it could be 0-3z before some of us see that line. 

The wind profile / hodograph dictates that isolated supercells would be the dominant mode of producing tornadoes. There doesn't seem to be much appetite from CAM's to pop cells in the open warm sector despite temperatures nearing / at convective temperature. Best bet is perhaps if the main line downscales into more isolated segments, and end up with a QLCS type threat.

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31 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The HRRR still brings some UH tracks near the DC metro area after 0z. We'll see...

           Yeah, the initial convection moving up from the southwest really didn't have much of an impact.     The line to our west will continue to move east, but we'll be dealing with surface cooling when it arrives.   That said, there *may* be a window just after dark when cooling aloft compensates for the cooler surface and allow a severe threat to persist into the DC Metro area.

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The 'line' that's sitting out in the Allegheny Front is actually a convergence boundary that is taking advantage of the upslope topography. There isn't a synoptic impetus to move it off until the actual cold front arrives, which is still back in Ohio.

 

Capture.JPG

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12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The HRRR seems to struggle to get the storms to move east (as @wxmeddler just indicated he sees as well) - The 18z NAM nest rolling out now seems a little more compelled to roll the storms east. 

The 3km NAM seems to promote the idea of the convergence boundary storms producing strong cold pools which moves the convergence boundary eastward. Which, is definitely a possibility.

Edit: Strong cold pools would limit the tornado threat save minor QLCS kinks on the front end.

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There's been almost no progress east with the line. We are past peak heating. If we get to 8pm or so and it's still lagging out to the west we are probably just going to get some showers and sub-severe gusts of wind. Another case where synoptic wind may end up being the bigger story. 

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

There's been almost no progress east with the line. We are past peak heating. If we get to 8pm or so and it's still lagging out to the west we are probably just going to get some showers and sub-severe gusts of wind. Another case where synoptic wind may end up being the bigger story. 

Appalachian pseudo rain shadow in effect.

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1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

First round was 3 minutes of rain, no thunder and 0.06” in the bucket.  Next line looking more promising.

Second line had a lot of lightning with it but no hail or strong winds here.  0.45” with that one.  Third line on the way.

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7 minutes ago, yoda said:

TVS sig on the Berryville storm

 

32 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I think it may try! Any more experienced mets want to chime in? 

 

It seems the storms are getting a bit of a boost from the mountains, then immediately dying off once they get on the lee side. With nighttime setting in, any remnant instability will likely wane quickly.

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3 minutes ago, George BM said:

0z IAD sounding. MLCAPE is more accurate than SBCAPE due to the erroneous 65F dewpt reading. Actual dewpoint is around 60F. 

 

 

           It has nicely cooled aloft.    This is what I was suggesting earlier that there might be a window for a couple of hours past sunset with a severe threat, as mid-level cooling would compensate for surface cooling.   Unfortunately, with the line (or whatever is left of it) not getting into the DC area for a few more hours, I'm just hoping for a rumble or two of thunder at this point.

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