George BM Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 IAD just gusted up to 44kts(51mph) w/ the temperature up to 75F with some sunshine. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 All the dynamic parameters are screaming tornado potential. The thermo's are a bit lacking but if we get some sunshine.... All we need is storm mode. I mean... this is damn good looking (boxed average for MoCo/Howard/Frederick/Caroll 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 1 minute ago, wxmeddler said: All the dynamic parameters are screaming tornado potential. The thermo's are a bit lacking but if we get some sunshine.... All we need is storm mode. Nice to see you chiming in! I wonder if we actually will get some decent instability with the sunshine arriving for many of us. But my main limiting factor at that point would be if the storms arrive too late once the sun has already set. HRRR seems to suggest it could be 0-3z before some of us see that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Ahhhhh... i see the clearing headed towards the lowlands. The atmosphere seems really energetic. More so than I expected. Some heavy rain and rolling thunder after dark would be fun. Let's go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Nice to see you chiming in! I wonder if we actually will get some decent instability with the sunshine arriving for many of us. But my main limiting factor at that point would be if the storms arrive too late once the sun has already set. HRRR seems to suggest it could be 0-3z before some of us see that line. The wind profile / hodograph dictates that isolated supercells would be the dominant mode of producing tornadoes. There doesn't seem to be much appetite from CAM's to pop cells in the open warm sector despite temperatures nearing / at convective temperature. Best bet is perhaps if the main line downscales into more isolated segments, and end up with a QLCS type threat. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 31 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The HRRR still brings some UH tracks near the DC metro area after 0z. We'll see... Yeah, the initial convection moving up from the southwest really didn't have much of an impact. The line to our west will continue to move east, but we'll be dealing with surface cooling when it arrives. That said, there *may* be a window just after dark when cooling aloft compensates for the cooler surface and allow a severe threat to persist into the DC Metro area. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Storm near Moorefield, WV looks like it could do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Storm near Moorefield, WV looks like it could do it. Yeah that one looks solid right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 The 'line' that's sitting out in the Allegheny Front is actually a convergence boundary that is taking advantage of the upslope topography. There isn't a synoptic impetus to move it off until the actual cold front arrives, which is still back in Ohio. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 The HRRR seems to struggle to get the storms to move east (as @wxmeddler just indicated he sees as well) - The 18z NAM nest rolling out now seems a little more compelled to roll the storms east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The HRRR seems to struggle to get the storms to move east (as @wxmeddler just indicated he sees as well) - The 18z NAM nest rolling out now seems a little more compelled to roll the storms east. The 3km NAM seems to promote the idea of the convergence boundary storms producing strong cold pools which moves the convergence boundary eastward. Which, is definitely a possibility. Edit: Strong cold pools would limit the tornado threat save minor QLCS kinks on the front end. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 SPC is not enthused. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0235.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 STW just hoisted here. Skies have gone overcast after a couple of hours of sun. 70/60 with a south wind at 21 G41. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 There's been almost no progress east with the line. We are past peak heating. If we get to 8pm or so and it's still lagging out to the west we are probably just going to get some showers and sub-severe gusts of wind. Another case where synoptic wind may end up being the bigger story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: There's been almost no progress east with the line. We are past peak heating. If we get to 8pm or so and it's still lagging out to the west we are probably just going to get some showers and sub-severe gusts of wind. Another case where synoptic wind may end up being the bigger story. Appalachian pseudo rain shadow in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 Cell near Baseye may try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 First round was 3 minutes of rain, no thunder and 0.06” in the bucket. Next line looking more promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 https://x.com/nwsspc/status/1901397853781524577?s=46&t=GcJrdtSs3JJfCsUHkcq4ow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: SPC is not enthused. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0235.html 2 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: https://x.com/nwsspc/status/1901397853781524577?s=46&t=GcJrdtSs3JJfCsUHkcq4ow Changed their mind lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Looks like it was trying again near Strasburg... not anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Storm near Edinburg/Woodstock looks a bit interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Went severe.. Kind of has that look with the bowing out and notch. Maybe I am trying too hard to see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 I think it may try! Any more experienced mets want to chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1 hour ago, WVclimo said: First round was 3 minutes of rain, no thunder and 0.06” in the bucket. Next line looking more promising. Second line had a lot of lightning with it but no hail or strong winds here. 0.45” with that one. Third line on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Lost the look. Still looks windy and has some hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 TVS sig on the Berryville storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 7 minutes ago, yoda said: TVS sig on the Berryville storm 32 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I think it may try! Any more experienced mets want to chime in? It seems the storms are getting a bit of a boost from the mountains, then immediately dying off once they get on the lee side. With nighttime setting in, any remnant instability will likely wane quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 0z IAD sounding. MLCAPE is more accurate than SBCAPE due to the erroneous 65F surface dewpt reading. Actual dewpoint is around 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 17 Author Share Posted March 17 Radar looks decent for those that are near the storms. Still not much locally in the close metro areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 3 minutes ago, George BM said: 0z IAD sounding. MLCAPE is more accurate than SBCAPE due to the erroneous 65F dewpt reading. Actual dewpoint is around 60F. It has nicely cooled aloft. This is what I was suggesting earlier that there might be a window for a couple of hours past sunset with a severe threat, as mid-level cooling would compensate for surface cooling. Unfortunately, with the line (or whatever is left of it) not getting into the DC area for a few more hours, I'm just hoping for a rumble or two of thunder at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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