yoda Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 ENH just appeared on 1300z SPC OTLK for W MD and W PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 Funny how weather works. All along I'd have thought if there was an upgrade it would be in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Huh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Mesoscale Discussion 0228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...West Virginia...far western Maryland...western and central Pennsylvania...and far southwestern New York. Concerning...Tornado Watch 53... Valid 161608Z - 161745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 53 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes remains through mid-afternoon. DISCUSSION...A line of storms has now developed along the pre-frontal trough across West Virginia and eastern Ohio/southwest Pennsylvania. This line of storms is already starting to accelerate northeast. Visible satellite continues to show cloud breaks ahead of these storms which should allow for some destabilization immediately ahead of these storms. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes remain the primary threat. These storms may reach the eastern edge of tornado watch 53 within the next 60 to 90 minutes. An additional watch may be needed soon across portions of central Pennsylvania and perhaps into southern New York. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 The more I see, the more I really believe the scenario where the OH/PA stuff goes mostly NW/N of many of us, and the other activity goes S/SE is actually what is going to happen. Obviously this is a very MBY(s) opinion. Perhaps the M/D line counties get clipped by the NW stuff and Southern Maryland and similar locales get the SE stuff...but I'm pretty lackluster right now on anything for DC/MoCo/PG/AACo and similar areas. Precipitation, sure - but severe I'm questioning whether I jinxed the local folks with the WxWatcher007 blanket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The more I see, the more I really believe the scenario where the OH/PA stuff goes mostly NW/N of many of us, and the other activity goes S/SE is actually what is going to happen. Obviously this is a very MBY(s) opinion. Perhaps the M/D line counties get clipped by the NW stuff and Southern Maryland and similar locales get the SE stuff...but I'm pretty lackluster right now on anything for DC/MoCo/PG/AACo and similar areas. Precipitation, sure - but severe I'm questioning whether I jinxed the local folks with the WxWatcher007 blanket. And the line in WV that goes all the way down to the S WV/VA border that's severe warned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Hmmm... Palmyra cell looks interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 1 minute ago, yoda said: And the line in WV that goes all the way down to the S WV/VA border that's severe warned? HRRR (not saying it's right) has been showing that kind of lifting NE and not making a ton of progress into the metros. Latest run seems to show some backbuilding that might "get it done" but it could be sub-severe. To be honest - I thought this could end up being a beefier version of the event a week or two ago - but I now think this will be under that. We'll see how things lay out in the coming hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 5% tor line moved eastward 50 to 60 miles on 1630z OTLK... now includes DC metro and all of C MD 15% wind and SLGT risk also moved in that direction 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 Gotta love my interesting weather reverse psychology. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 So how long until down sloping makes this vanish in Carrol County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OHIO INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A highly amplified upper trough over the MS Valley this morning will advance eastward over much of the eastern CONUS today. An embedded 100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet and associated large-scale ascent will overspread the upper OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic regions through this evening. The primary surface low over eastern Lower MI will develop northeastward into Ontario and Quebec through the day, while an attendant cold front sweeps eastward across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic through the period. Recent visible satellite imagery shows some clearing ahead of the synoptic cold front in eastern OH and western PA. Although low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, cool mid-level temperatures will overspread the narrow warm sector this afternoon. This, combined with daytime heating, will support a narrow zone of up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of the cold front and/or pre-frontal trough, which should be sufficient for surface-based convection. Bands of low-topped thunderstorms have developed both along and just ahead of the cold front. This activity will move quickly east-northeastward across WV, western/central PA, and parts of NY through the day. With strong low/mid-level flow already in place per area VWPs, this line should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds, with peak gusts perhaps reaching up to 60-70 mph. There will also be rather strong low-level shear in place, which may support some threat for a few tornadoes embedded within the line, especially if low-level flow can remain backed more to a southeasterly component. The northeastward extent of this severe wind and tornado risk into the Mid-Atlantic and NY remains unclear, as persistent cloud cover will inhibit daytime heating to some extent. Still, most guidance shows one or more lines persisting through the afternoon and evening while posing some wind threat. Severe probabilities have been adjusted northeastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to account for latest observational and guidance trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Tornado Watch up E WV/ W MD/ i81 corridor in VA until 7pm @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe @high risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 54 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Maryland Western and Central Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Eastern West Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will move quickly northeastward this afternoon and evening, while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph. A couple of line-embedded tornadoes may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north of State College PA to 10 miles west southwest of Staunton VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1252 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Garrett County in western Maryland... Northwestern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... West central Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 145 PM EDT. * At 1250 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Uniontown to near Belington, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. This line of thunderstorms has a history of producing damaging winds. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Beechwood, Redhouse, Bittinger, Hutton, Gorman, Oakland, Jennings, Deep Creek Lake State Park, Crellin, Swallow Falls State Park, Deer Park, McHenry, Big Run State Park, Friendsville, Piney Grove, McComas Beach, Kitzmiller, Merrill, Mountain Lake Park, and Emoryville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Damaging wind and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for western Maryland...and eastern West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 40/10 tor probs 70/20 wind 80 probs of 6 or more reports of severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 I could also see a scenario where the stuff coming up through VA into the DC area now precludes any instability from really taking hold and stabilizing us before any later line. That seems pretty likely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I could also see a scenario where the stuff coming up through VA into the DC area now precludes any instability from really taking hold and stabilizing us before any later line. That seems pretty likely... Ah the double reverse psychology take so we get a tornado threat later lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Very very windy here, just likely had a 55 to 60 mph gust... very little precip... Tornado watch just got posted for the Valley... Maybe that line in WV clips part of the Valley later... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Ah the double reverse psychology take so we get a tornado threat later lol Nah this time I'm legitimately being a deb. We likely are stuck at the Yoda-tier for the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Numerous trees and power lines blown down in NW Garrett County and also near McHenry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Not a drop of rain with no breeze so far today. We do severe like we do snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Not enough sun east of I-81 for anything to get going it seems. Would just take a good hour of a soaking rain at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Just as you posted that sun came out here and I am seeing more blue sky…will see how long it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HokieEnginerd Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 The sun has come out here in western Prince William. It has gotten noticeable more humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 Almost full sun here down around Fredericksburg. Temp is up to 72, doubt it means much, but would like some downpours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 The HRRR still brings some UH tracks near the DC metro area after 0z. We'll see... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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