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2025 Severe Weather General Discussion


Kmlwx
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Hmmm

y 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC
   COASTAL STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms with large hail, severe gusts and possibly a few
   tornadoes, are expected on Sunday across parts of the Atlantic
   Coastal States.

   ...Atlantic Coastal States...
   A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi
   Valley and western Great Lakes on Sunday, as an associated mid-level
   jet translates eastward into the southern and central Appalachians.
   Ahead of this feature, a south-to-north corridor of low-level
   moisture will be in place early in the day in the lee of the
   Appalachians, from Georgia north-northeastward into the
   Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints along this corridor should be mostly
   in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass,
   thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the
   period. The storms are forecast to move eastward from the higher
   terrain of the Appalachians into the lower elevations during the
   day. Ahead of the storms, some destabilization is forecast. ECMWF
   forecast soundings near the moist axis suggest that MLCAPE will peak
   in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon.

   In addition to the instability, strong deep-layer shear is forecast
   across most of the region due to the presence of the mid-level jet.
   As this feature moves to the east of the spine of the Appalachians,
   deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually increase. This will be
   favorable for a severe threat, associated with the stronger
   multicell line segments and/or rotating storms. Wind damage will be
   most favored along the leading edge of the faster-moving lines.
   Cells that remain discrete, and move into areas where the
   combination of instability and deep-layer shear is locally
   maximized, could become supercellular. Supercells will likely have
   potential for severe gusts and isolated large hail. An isolated
   tornado threat will also be possible, with the greatest tornado
   threat concentrated along and near the low-level jet during the
   afternoon, from the Carolinas into Virginia. 

   Further north into the Hudson Valley, severe storms will also be
   possible. However, forecast instability in the Hudson Valley is
   less, suggesting the severe threat should remain marginal and more
   isolated.

   ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025
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My thoughts are mostly unchanged so far. I think instability will be a major limiting factor. Euro is still more robust than the GFS in that department it seems (at least the 0z). I didn't look at the 6z Euro yet. 

Either way - it's probably going to rain and there will be gust pre-frontal winds regardless. I'm not total meh-ing yet but I'm not overly enthused up here. Though like I said for the last event - it's a dynamic system...surprises can happen. And the further we get from the winter season - the higher out chances get for more favorable thermo environment. 

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The latest SREF graphics on the SPC site have improved from the prior runs. Will be interesting to see if it's just the event getting closer and outliers dropping away - or if it's an actual trend. 

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13 minutes ago, high risk said:

I don’t hate the end of the 12z NAM Nest run…I’ll say that. 

CAPE isn't too bad, around 600 J/KG... but those SRH values at both 1km and 3km are >300, effective shear over 60 kts.... 0-6km shear is extreme... 1km shear of 40 kts :yikes:

Tells me there is definitely a threat for QLCS tornadoes in that line

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

I, too was somewhat enthused at the 12z NAM nest. However, it's the NAM nest at range. For now - the WxWatcher system is seemingly at the Yoda tier. 

I actually went back to reference the blanket lol. This event looks a lot the the last one we had. It looks like a few hours of gusty heavy rain with an embedded thin line of blinding rain that last a few minutes. The wind after the front passes looks gusty.

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Just now, dailylurker said:

I actually went back to reference the blanket lol. This event looks a lot the the last one we had. It looks like a few hours of gusty heavy rain with an embedded thin line of blinding rain that last a few minutes. The wind after the front passes looks gusty.

I tend to agree. Though as I mentioned above - the further we get into March/April/May the easier it is to get a better warm sector even if contaminated by rain. I still think it's awfully early - but this system synoptically may end up carrying some more "juice" versus that last one. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

I tend to agree. Though as I mentioned above - the further we get into March/April/May the easier it is to get a better warm sector even if contaminated by rain. I still think it's awfully early - but this system synoptically may end up carrying some more "juice" versus that last one. 

I like these March squall line events. This sounds like a nice one. Thanks for the updates. Keep them coming. 

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14 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

A Day 2 HIGH Risk issued just a bit ago for central MS/AL.

This not a politics post - but does anyone have a good Bluesky list of people to follow for severe? Or just WX folks in general? I buried mine with fantasy football people and need to bring it back in balance for tomorrow. 

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@Kmlwx  @high risk @Eskimo Joe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
229 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ053>057-527-151830-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
229 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Confidence has increased for isolated to scattered severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts Sunday
afternoon and evening. A tornado or two is also possible.

Gale-force winds are possible Sunday. Special Marine Warnings may
be needed for strong winds associated with showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

Gusty winds to around 45 mph are possible outside of thunderstorms
Sunday, which may result in a few downed trees, branches, and
power lines.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Sunday afternoon and evening.

$$

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
526-WVZ050>053-055-151830-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire-
Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-
229 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Confidence has increased for isolated to scattered severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts Sunday
afternoon and evening. A tornado or two is also possible.

Gusty winds to around 45 mph are possible outside of thunderstorms
Sunday, which may result in a few downed trees, branches, and
power lines.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Sunday afternoon and evening.
 
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23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The new day 3 SPC outlook trimmed the slight risk and sounds pretty meh lol

I think the NE part was more for NE of us?

 

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
   TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to
   marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East.

   ...Southeast...
   A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z
   Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This
   activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree
   has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity
   will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South
   instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates
   towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will
   remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to
   warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into
   the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will
   encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper
   in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated
   damaging wind threat by late afternoon. 

   ...Mid-Atlantic States...
   Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning,
   should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians
   vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will
   likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially
   weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with
   very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and
   a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind
   profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts
   to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging
   wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should
   become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated,
   limiting severe potential.

   ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau...
   The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for
   signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon
   convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented
   cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from
   the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated
   on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance
   suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front
   and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially
   curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong
   deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to
   marginally severe hail.
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20 hours ago, yoda said:

I think the NE part was more for NE of us?

 

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
   TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated, small to
   marginal severe hail are possible Sunday across parts of the East.

   ...Southeast...
   A broken to linear band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z
   Sunday from parts of north FL to at least the Savannah Valley. This
   activity should be in an overall weakening state, but to what degree
   has above-average uncertainty. It is plausible that this activity
   will have outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South
   instability plume with weaker downstream mid-level lapse rates
   towards the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong low-level shear will
   remain coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points to
   warrant a downstream tornado/wind threat through late morning into
   the afternoon. The southern portion of the convective band will
   encounter diminishing/more veered low-level flow with time, deeper
   in the FL Peninsula. This should result in a predominantly isolated
   damaging wind threat by late afternoon. 

   ...Mid-Atlantic States...
   Low-topped convection, that may not be producing much lightning,
   should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians
   vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity will
   likely be muted by poor mid-level lapse rates and substantially
   weaker boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with
   very strong low-level shear/winds, some risk for damaging winds and
   a couple tornadoes may be realized. The deep-layer meridional wind
   profile may tend to be mostly parallel to what convection attempts
   to intensify, which may temper a more widespread severe damaging
   wind threat. With northeast extent, surface-based instability should
   become minimal and weak convection should remain/become elevated,
   limiting severe potential.

   ...Alleghany/Cumberland Plateau...
   The level 1-MRGL risk has been expanded westward to account for
   signals of a separate corridor of late morning to afternoon
   convection. This may form along/ahead of the north/south-oriented
   cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from
   the central Great Lakes to Quebec. This scenario will be predicated
   on sufficient boundary-layer heating, as the bulk of guidance
   suggests that low-level winds will become veered ahead of the front
   and yield some boundary-layer drying. This should substantially
   curtail low-level shear compared to early morning, but strong
   deep-layer shear could foster locally strong gusts and small to
   marginally severe hail.

Just doesn't sound like the thermos are gonna be there. 

Meanwhile, this is the kind of MD you'll never see written for this area:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0199.html

 

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14 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Just doesn't sound like the thermos are gonna be there. 

Meanwhile, this is the kind of MD you'll never see written for this area:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0199.html

 

Yeah, that's wild.  The messaging has been good, so hopefully the tornadoes steer clear of populated areas.

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21z SREF has continued the trend of pushing some better parameter trends towards us. Some of this, I guess could just be being closer to game-time and having members coverage. However, a look at the last 6 or so runs of the "Significant Tornado Ingredients" product shows a pretty clear trend. Of course, we are on the northern edge - but it really is honking hard it seems for an area from NC into parts of VA for a tornado threat. Again...it's the SREF but it does seem to sometimes at least be good to look at for where things are trending even if the run verbatim isn't accurate. 

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39 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

21z SREF has continued the trend of pushing some better parameter trends towards us. Some of this, I guess could just be being closer to game-time and having members coverage. However, a look at the last 6 or so runs of the "Significant Tornado Ingredients" product shows a pretty clear trend. Of course, we are on the northern edge - but it really is honking hard it seems for an area from NC into parts of VA for a tornado threat. Again...it's the SREF but it does seem to sometimes at least be good to look at for where things are trending even if the run verbatim isn't accurate. 

                The NAM/NAM Nest solution is our path to severe.    The HRRR is not.   HRRR initiates convection in southern VA by early afternoon which moves NNE and maybe bring a SVR threat to southern MD and the eastern shore, but it screws most of the DC-Baltimore area on severe and rainfall by killing the line arriving from the west.   The NAM idea is to have that initial round of convection be far less widespread and not interrupt the convection arriving from the west.

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