NorthArlington101 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 4 minutes ago, yoda said: We'll see... some pickup in lightning and warned cell in W MD Family says the storm in Harrisonburg is fairly vigorous, even if it doesn’t look intimidating on radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Lots of hail signatures on the storms on the western Loudoun border. I will let you know as they hit Purcellville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Pretty remarkable CAM agreement on an intense line rolling through the area in the early afternoon tomorrow. (The NAM Nest is a bit later than any other guidance, but it has a notorious slow bias on convective timing.) The reflectivities look amazing, but is there really any severe potential with it in the DC area? The wind fields are amazing, and if we had even 500 j/kg of sfc-based cape, we'd be looking at widespread damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes. But there really isn't any instability shown by any model. Maybe the HRRR squeezes out 50-100 j/kg, but it looks warmer than most other guidance. So, I have to wonder if this will be just a short period of torrential rain followed by stratiform. Before I totally poo-poo the threat, however, it's worth noting that sometimes the incredible shear and overall dynamics can drive severe weather with a forced line in an environment with basically no cape, so I won't rule out a damaging event with an isolated brief pinup, but I don't think that it's likely. The better environment actually establishes itself over northern VA and areas to the north and northwest in the evening hours, as the very cold air aloft arrives, steeping lapse rates. Go look at sfc-based cape fields for the early evening hours. The values aren't awesome, but they're notably higher than during the early afternoon event. Wind fields are still decent, so any cells would likely be supercellular have hail and wind potential. Unfortunately, the upper system arrives just a bit too late, and nighttime sfc cooling with reduce the potential as the evening goes on. The best severe threat with this round will be over eastern WV, northwestern VA, and up into PA. Maybe an isolated cell can pop across the DC metro area, and it would have severe potential if it did, but the threat appears low there at this time.Seems like things played out this way. Little more energy with the last round, but the evening arrival may have lessened the impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 I had some cool pea sized hail today from an odd storm that had a really cool streaky look from the precip / hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, 87storms said: Seems like things played out this way. Little more energy with the last round, but the evening arrival may have lessened the impact Thanks for noticing! My forecast was pretty good, except that the storms (while sub-severe) persisted all the way east into the DC Metro area this evening. The CAMs were too quick to really disintegrate the line. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 9 hours ago, high risk said: Thanks for noticing! My forecast was pretty good, except that the storms (while sub-severe) persisted all the way east into the DC Metro area this evening. The CAMs were too quick to really disintegrate the line. I fall for this all the time too. Rich Thompson from SPC hammers this in his lecture that convection from maturing or mature systems will often persist longer than what the CAMS illustrate. We saw this during both April 2011 severe weather outbreaks where tornadoes occurred from Alabama up into Pennsylvania. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 6 Author Share Posted March 6 Unrelated but useful for severe season - does anyone know when the RRFS will be back online after the winter outage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Day 8 mention in this mornings SPC day 4 to 8 disco 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 @Kmlwx @high risk @Eskimo Joe Of course the usual caveats... but LWX AFD this afternoon already mentioning concern for severe thunderstorms next weekend LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry weather will prevail through the end of the week. A backdoor front will slide north to south Wednesday, then lift back north as a warm front late Thursday. There is an outside chance of a shower as the front lifts back north at the end of the week. A powerful area of low pressure and strong associated cold front will develop over the Plains later this week, then track east by next weekend. Current guidance has a strong FROPA next Sunday. Increasing moisture ahead of the front combined with increasing low-level winds raises concerns for severe thunderstorms, but the magnitude of the threat will depend on the exact timing of FROPA and how much instability is able to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Borrowing this from the Tennessee Valley forum 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: NSSL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 9 Author Share Posted March 9 Yeah...way too far out to say anything definitive - but interesting to see a robust signal already on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 10 Author Share Posted March 10 CSU MLP looks a lot less favorable for severe than it did over the weekend. Timing seems off potentially. Still way too far out to say anything with confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 10 hours ago, Kmlwx said: CSU MLP looks a lot less favorable for severe than it did over the weekend. Timing seems off potentially. Still way too far out to say anything with confidence. Yeah, the GFS timing would be terrible; hug the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Day 6 SPC OTLK 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 11 Author Share Posted March 11 @WxWatcher007 - I was being SO serious when I said I wanted to turn it into a blanket. It arrived today. Well worth it. 9 1 9 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 11 Author Share Posted March 11 Re: the Sunday severe risk - timing is still shifting around quite a bit...but I could see it being similar to the other day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 26 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: @WxWatcher007 - I was being SO serious when I said I wanted to turn it into a blanket. It arrived today. Well worth it. Truly truly wonderful I have to find the original image lol I only have a copy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 11 Author Share Posted March 11 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Truly truly wonderful I have to find the original image lol I only have a copy right now. I'm going to burrito myself inside of it whenever we have a short range severe weather threat. Maybe it will protect against being socked in by clouds/busts. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 17 hours ago, Kmlwx said: @WxWatcher007 - I was being SO serious when I said I wanted to turn it into a blanket. It arrived today. Well worth it. That’s awesome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 21 hours ago, Kmlwx said: @WxWatcher007 - I was being SO serious when I said I wanted to turn it into a blanket. It arrived today. Well worth it. I am now a blanket. I have peaked. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 12 Author Share Posted March 12 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: I am now a blanket. I have peaked. All downhill from here for all of us I'm prepared to accept my fate as forum severe-jinx if this blanket leads to the most dud Mid-Atlantic season ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Hmm.. How do we get to this so I can see the updates? I tried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 12 Author Share Posted March 12 Here - https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 On 3/11/2025 at 12:13 PM, Kmlwx said: @WxWatcher007 - I was being SO serious when I said I wanted to turn it into a blanket. It arrived today. Well worth it. <blanket> This is amazing. I've missed this community when I was away. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 On 3/11/2025 at 12:13 PM, Kmlwx said: @WxWatcher007 - I was being SO serious when I said I wanted to turn it into a blanket. It arrived today. Well worth it. I really wish I could find a "Drag Me To Storm" t-shirt that helicity designs came out with a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Guidance seems to be converging on better timing for Sunday. Could still be an issue in which widespread clouds and multiple rounds of showers kill instability and any severe threat, but we're in the game for now. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 13 Author Share Posted March 13 7 hours ago, high risk said: Guidance seems to be converging on better timing for Sunday. Could still be an issue in which widespread clouds and multiple rounds of showers kill instability and any severe threat, but we're in the game for now. The WxWatcher007 blanket might have worked! I added it to my bed last night. More data needed before we can be sure lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 13 Author Share Posted March 13 The NCAR AI link above seems to be pretty robust for Sunday...FWIW. CSU MLP is less impressive - but the yellow area increased from the really meh runs a day or two ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 On 3/12/2025 at 11:38 AM, Kmlwx said: All downhill from here for all of us I'm prepared to accept my fate as forum severe-jinx if this blanket leads to the most dud Mid-Atlantic season ever. There are so many ways we fail at severe weather around here that that basket couldn't be fuller. So I'm confident your blanket will ensure a memorable season. It'll start off Sunday with widespread 70+ gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes for seasoning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 13 Author Share Posted March 13 LWX in their afternoon discussion is pretty meh on the threat due to meager instability. Can't say I disagree. Socked in with precipitation or clouds is really one of our top ways to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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