2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

The 2025 iteration needs an early start due to a marginal threat for severe tomorrow (2/16)! Have at it! 

[WxUSAF]

Gimme the Big Dog Wed-Thurs and I'll be ready for gusty shower season

[AdamHLG]

I’m liking the High Wind Watch. I gotta focus on something to get my eyeballs out of the other thread for a day or so - it’s become obsessive! NWS discussion has wet my appetizer for severe. Just in case something goes wrong next week.


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[TheClimateChanger]

74 mph winds observed at Elkins Airport.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
WVC077-093-161830-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0001.250216T1800Z-250216T1830Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
100 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Preston County in northeastern West Virginia...
  North Central Tucker County in northeastern West Virginia...

* Until 130 PM EST.

* At 100 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Rowlesburg,
  moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. A 74 mph wind gust was reported at
           Elkins, WV

  IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
  Kingwood, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, Albright, Tunnelton, Aurora,
  Cathedral State Park, Elgon and Cranesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone outdoors should move to shelter inside a well-built structure
and stay away from windows. This storm is capable of producing
widespread damaging winds.

&&

LAT...LON 3927 7969 3944 7980 3960 7950 3940 7948
      3935 7948 3934 7949 3929 7949 3922 7965
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 239DEG 44KT 3932 7967

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

McMullen

 

[AdamHLG]

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[Kmlwx]

I know we've mostly been using the normal obs thread but this synoptic wind has been downright impressive. outages for MD and VA are over 300K combined at this point it looks iike

[AdamHLG]

Very impressive. In Baltimore County there are many FD calls including a tree onto occupied vehicle , tree into a house, and many many wires /arcing calls. We had a tree crash down into the back yard.


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[AlexD1990]

Crazy colors with the FROPA

[Kmlwx]

Posting over in the obs thread still - but PEPCO outages still hanging under 10K (for now) and BGE is passing the 100K mark. Totals in Maryland are over 125K and Virginia is quite high as well. Power outage maps look more reminiscent of a tropical storm or major severe weather episode. Soggy ground+wind will do that!

[Kmlwx]

Transitioning to looking at the long range models for beefy low pressures going to our north and west. It's super early of course, but a good H5 pass can produce some dynamic results in late Feb into March and especially April. May not be traditional severe season for us, but if you're hunting ENH or MDTs stuff can sneak up. June is of course a really robust month for us normally (and May I guess). Once we get to July we get more into pulse severe season. 

[yoda]

SE portion of the LWX CWA outlooked on the Day 7 from SPC

[yoda]

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

   Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley...
   A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on
   Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central
   High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates
   east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across
   the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture
   return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it
   moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on
   D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday
   afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains.
   Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with
   continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level
   moisture advection continues. 

   By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be
   complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS
   and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is
   increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with
   an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern
   Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS
   has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the
   confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a
   significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe
   weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central
   Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event
   draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection
   including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line
   will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including
   strong tornadoes. 

   ...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast...
   The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended
   guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater
   moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the
   Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very
   strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat
   from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the
   Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by
   prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening
   surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat
   exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday.

   ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025

[yoda]

Also talk in this mornings AFD from LWX 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A large surface ridge over the OH Valley moves across the Mid-
Atlantic, then out to sea Sunday into the start of next week. Cold
and brisk conditions Sunday as highs struggle to reach the upper 30s
to low 40s, and northwest winds gust around 25-35 mph. Dry
conditions likely through Tuesday. Very cold Sunday night as lows
drop to the upper teens to low 20s, with wind chills in the single
digits to teens. Temperatures gradually warm through mid week, going
from 40s on Monday to 60s on Wednesday.

The next chance for widespread precipitation looks to be Wednesday
into Thursday when a potent upper trough and strong cold front
approach the area. There are still timing differences between the
global models, though all show a strong weather system impacting the
region. If these trends continue and given the strong kinematic
environment in the model guidance, it is possible our area is
affected by strong winds, heavy rainfall, and strong to possibly
severe thunderstorms. There is still too much uncertainty to speak
with much confidence given this is a week away, but it is worth
monitoring as we head into next week.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Kmlwx]

It literally will never not work! 

[Kmlwx]

@WxWatcher007 - If you have a high res version or ever make one - I would honestly pay to have this turned into my blanket/comforter of choice.

[Kmlwx]

13 hours ago, yoda said:

Also talk in this mornings AFD from LWX 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A large surface ridge over the OH Valley moves across the Mid-
Atlantic, then out to sea Sunday into the start of next week. Cold
and brisk conditions Sunday as highs struggle to reach the upper 30s
to low 40s, and northwest winds gust around 25-35 mph. Dry
conditions likely through Tuesday. Very cold Sunday night as lows
drop to the upper teens to low 20s, with wind chills in the single
digits to teens. Temperatures gradually warm through mid week, going
from 40s on Monday to 60s on Wednesday.

The next chance for widespread precipitation looks to be Wednesday
into Thursday when a potent upper trough and strong cold front
approach the area. There are still timing differences between the
global models, though all show a strong weather system impacting the
region. If these trends continue and given the strong kinematic
environment in the model guidance, it is possible our area is
affected by strong winds, heavy rainfall, and strong to possibly
severe thunderstorms. There is still too much uncertainty to speak
with much confidence given this is a week away, but it is worth
monitoring as we head into next week.

This time of year we are going to generally have to hope for a SUPER dynamic system. Pretty unlikely we'll have a ton of CAPE available...but it may not take much if the shear and storm system are dynamic enough on their own. 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

This time of year we are going to generally have to hope for a SUPER dynamic system. Pretty unlikely we'll have a ton of CAPE available...but it may not take much if the shear and storm system are dynamic enough on their own. 

           There may be some pretty good height falls with this system, but we typically end up with very widespread clouds and showers in advance of the primary forcing in setups like these.    Regardless, it's certainly nice to have something to look at as we wrap up February.

 

[yoda]

@Kmlwx

 

[yoda]

Morning AFD from LWX talking it up

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper troughing will depart off to the east, and high pressure will
build overhead at the surface on Monday. Sunny skies, light winds,
and below normal temperatures are expected, with highs in the mid
40s for most (30s mountains).

High pressure will progress offshore on Tuesday, causing winds to
become southerly. This will lead to a warming trend in temperatures,
despite an increase in mid-high level clouds. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the 50s for most.

A potent storm system will take shape over the center of the country
during the day Tuesday, before tracking northeastward into the Great
Lakes on Wednesday. Nearly all guidance shows a highly dynamic upper
trough ejecting from the Four Corners region toward the Southern
Plains Tuesday. As this upper trough closes off, rapid cyclogenesis
will ensue over the Plains in response, with low pressure deepening
rapidly as it tracks from near KS/OK Tuesday morning to near Chicago
by Wednesday morning. A very strong wind field will accompany this
storm system, with strong southerly low-level flow drawing moisture
northward across much of the eastern half of the CONUS. This
increase in low-level moisture is expected to lead to the
development of surface based instability. The combination of strong
winds aloft combined with surface based instability raises concerns
for severe thunderstorms locally during the day Wednesday. Yesterday
morning, SPC issued a very rare day 7 outlook for severe
thunderstorms that clipped far southern portions of our forecast
area. While there`s always a fair amount of uncertainty associated
with the forecast this far out, this system checks a lot of boxes
synoptically for cool season severe weather, and certainly bears
watching over the upcoming week. While we`ll also receive a fair
amount of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday, flooding doesn`t appear
to be a major concern with this system. The strongest synoptic scale
ascent with this system will pass to our northwest into the Great
Lakes, and most ensemble members show around a half of an inch to an
inch of rain. Even the highest end members show around an inch and
a half, which shouldn`t cause major issues, given the ongoing
drought, and continued stretch of dry weather we`ve had over the past
week.

Aside from the severe weather threat, synoptic scale winds may also
be a concern. Most guidance shows a 60-80 knot low-level jet at 850
hPa moving through during the day Wednesday, suggesting that there`s
some potential for gusts to near Wind Advisory criteria in southerly
flow, even outside of any thunderstorms.

A strong cold front will move through the area Wednesday night as
the system tracks northeastward into the St. Lawrence Valley. Strong
cold advection and gusty winds will ensue in post frontal west to
northwesterly flow Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry conditions are
forecast to the east of the mountains on Wednesday night into
Thursday, but upslope rain showers will change over to snow in the
Alleghenies as colder air filters in. It will be windy for all on
Thursday, with northwesterly gusts potentially nearing Wind Advisory
levels.

[Kmlwx]

CIPS and CSU-MLP both have some signs of life for that time period next week as well. 

[yoda]

Mention of severe thunderstorms in this afternoon's HWO for Wednesday 

[yoda]

Morning AFD from LWX 

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will progress offshore on Tuesday, allowing low-level
flow to become southerly. Those southerly winds will start to advect
warmer air back into the area, with temperatures climbing into the
50s beneath mostly cloudy skies.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday, attention will turn to a dynamic
storm system approaching the area from the west. Model guidance is
in good agreement that a potent shortwave will eject from the Desert
Southwest onto the Central/Southern Plains during the day Tuesday.
Strong cyclogenesis will ensue in response, with the resultant
surface low tracking northeastward from KS/OK toward the Great Lakes
by Wednesday. This system will have a very strong and broad wind
field, with southerly winds in advance of the system drawing
moisture northward across much of the eastern half of the CONUS.
This increase in low-level moisture will result in the development
of surface based instability, which when combined with a very strong
wind field aloft, raises concerns about severe thunderstorms.
Yesterday morning, SPC placed much of the forecast area in a very
rare day 6 Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. While the finer
scale details are still yet to be worked out, this is a synoptically
evident setup for cool season severe thunderstorms during the day
Wednesday.

Along with the potential for thunderstorms, we`ll also receive some
appreciable rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. At the moment,
most guidance is showing in the neighborhood of a half of an inch to
an inch of rain. Given ongoing drought across much of the area, and
dry conditions over the last week, this appears as though it will be
a largely beneficial rain.

Synoptic scale winds (background winds outside of thunderstorms)
could also approach Wind Advisory criteria, both in advance of, and
behind the system. Winds will be out of the south ahead of the
system on Wednesday, and then west to northwesterly behind the
system`s cold front Thursday into Thursday night. Forecast spread
begins to increase a bit by Friday, but it`s possible that the
strong northwesterly winds could linger a bit into Friday morning.

[Kmlwx]

0z CIPS guidance had some beefy analogs. Doubt we meet some of those - but it's noteworthy if nothing else as to the dynamics of this system. 

3/31/2022
4/13/2020 

Those are both in the analogs. 

[Kmlwx]

And here is the latest CSU MLP run - this is an increase from yesterday's run. 

[Kmlwx]

One thing to note - the GFS seems to be much faster than the Euro.

[yoda]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

One thing to note - the GFS seems to be much faster than the Euro.

I forget, during our severe weather threats, was there a global model that stood out as being "better" than the others?

[Kmlwx]

34 minutes ago, yoda said:

I forget, during our severe weather threats, was there a global model that stood out as being "better" than the others?

I mean probably Euro lol but I don't think it's as cut and dry as some times during winter storms. 

I will say - once timing is "locked in" - lines of storms and initiation tends to happen a bit earlier than modeled (even the day of)...this is why we sometimes get crapvection to kill anything later in the day - or the main line just comes through too early before we destabilize. 

Re: this threat specifically - I still agree with @high risk essentially. It's early in the season but we can certainly sneak a surprise here or there. I'm not expecting an "outbreak tier" event for our area...and honestly I have doubts the "better" instability makes it much further north than Richmond. If the GFS timing is closer to being right (faster), it will come through even during the late morning. The earlier runs I was referencing it was pretty stark...GFS with it during that timeframe and Euro waiting until a better time in the daylight cycle. 

Always a risk we remain wedged in this time of year. Only time will tell. 

[yoda]

Well LWX AFD this afternoon likes it

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure that builds over the region Sunday is forecast to
slowly shift off the eastern seaboard through Tuesday. An increasing
south to southeasterly flow will lead to the return of above normal
temperatures on Tuesday with highs generally in the mid to upper 50s
to lower 60s along with mostly dry conditions.

A strong frontal system is forecast to impact the region late
Tuesday through early Thursday morning. Ahead of the main cold
front, a warm front will lift north of the region by late Tuesday
evening. Showers may start affecting the region as early as late
Tuesday evening, but are most likely on Wednesday. A strong upper
level trough going nearly negative combined with strong jet support
in both the upper and lower parts of the atmosphere will lead to an
increased threat for severe weather on Wednesday. Increasing CAPE
due to temperatures forecast to rise into the mid to upper 60s and a
favorable shear environment suggests the primary severe threats at
this time is damaging wind gusts. Based on recent model guidance, it
seems the main threat window for severe weather will be Wednesday
into early Wednesday evening when peak heating is maximized and the
front is forecast pass through the region. SPC continues to
highlight areas along and east of the I-81 in slight risk for severe
weather.

The cold front is forecast to pass through our region sometime late
Wednesday evening. Behind the frontal passage, rising pressures will
lead to threat for widespread strong to damaging wind gusts Thursday
into early Friday. Wind advisories may be needed Thursday into early
Friday. West to northwest winds along with an upper level trough
passing overhead will lead to threat for upslope snow showers along
the Allgheny front on Thursday. Gradient winds are forecast to
slowly weaken on Friday leading to a return of drier and cooler
conditions.

[yoda]

FWIW, Cappucci from CWG has been talking this threat up and mentioned ENH possibility 

https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1895852340663754874