SnowDawg Posted Wednesday at 02:17 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:17 AM With any luck that gulf convection is overdone to an extent given the NAMs bias. But still...not really any positives to take from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted Wednesday at 02:18 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:18 AM Heavy Snow MSD in W. TN…fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Wednesday at 02:18 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:18 AM 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: What time does the internet turn off for the night in your hill village? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Wednesday at 02:18 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:18 AM Model is depicting loss of moisture from storms to south. Mike maze said he’s watching . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Wednesday at 02:20 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:20 AM Yeah this ain't good. This may end up being one of the biggest busts of models and forecasts in history. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Wednesday at 02:21 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:21 AM 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: What time does the internet turn off for the night in your hill village? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted Wednesday at 02:25 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:25 AM https://x.com/_jwall/status/1892036767903068239?s=46&t=STHHqXs0uQQpS_-bXWm8Cw Gulf Moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted Wednesday at 02:25 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:25 AM It’s going to be an amazing virtual school day at home with nothing falling from the sky. Just. Wow. At the recent NAM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheels2 Posted Wednesday at 02:25 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:25 AM This is amazing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Wednesday at 02:27 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:27 AM Just now, calculus1 said: It’s going to be an amazing virtual school day at home with nothing falling from the sky. Just. Wow. At the recent NAM. I think they jumped the gun on canceling for sure. Thursday would probably be the better day to cancel with the colder temps and additional moisture tomorrow night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted Wednesday at 02:45 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:45 AM Well, in defense of the school systems, they have to take precautions because of buses. Given the inconsistency with the forecasts, they did the right thing. I wouldn’t say they jumped. At least they are doing virtual. Wake isn’t and I think tomorrow is the last banked day. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted Wednesday at 02:46 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:46 AM 28 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Let me try and help here. You do not need to pay for a parachute to sky dive unless you want to do it more than once. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted Wednesday at 02:56 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:56 AM https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/22/2/waf986_1.pdf This article from AMS explains convection robbing or enhancing upstream QPF well. We need a low level jet to orient convection north to south to push more moisture north. If the convection moves too fast west to east then there is very little northward moisture transport like the current NAM is showing. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Wednesday at 03:01 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:01 AM 4 minutes ago, rxwxunc said: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/22/2/waf986_1.pdf This article from AMS explains convection robbing or enhancing upstream QPF well. We need a low level jet to orient convection north to south to push more moisture north. If the convection moves too fast west to east then there is very little northward moisture transport like the current NAM is showing. Nice article! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Wednesday at 03:04 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:04 AM Currently the NAM is the only one really showing it. and central NC still has 1-2 inches which is what most local mets are maxing out at anyway. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Wednesday at 03:08 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:08 AM Well no matter what happens tomorrow or doesn't happens... i enjoyed tracking this one. I know it won't turn out for most folks to be the big one but maybe we can get one before winter is over. I've lost a lot of hours of sleep tracking this thing lol. I'm beat 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Wednesday at 03:13 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:13 AM 26 minutes ago, jburns said: Let me try and help here. You do not need to pay for a parachute to sky dive unless you want to do it more than once. 6ydixb.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Wednesday at 03:17 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:17 AM Thursday morning could be better for the Triangle than Wednesday afternoon 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted Wednesday at 03:19 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:19 AM 1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said: Anybody want the Dallas to Carolina connection? Just arrived to heavy freezing drizzle and 26°. An overnight mess in the making. If they get what we’re currently getting 8 miles NNE of DFW, all anyone is getting is a cold, windy disappointment. Hardly any fzn on the trash can lid when I rolled them to the curb I do hope someone “back home” scores a decent hit though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted Wednesday at 03:19 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:19 AM 56 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: What time does the internet turn off for the night in your hill village? Lucky you, we got an entire truck load of Starlink delivered to us holler folk back during Helene. We get to be a thorn in your arse well into night. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted Wednesday at 03:19 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:19 AM I love it here. I see Brick Tamland vanished. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Wednesday at 03:20 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:20 AM On 2/15/2025 at 5:49 PM, wncsnow said: What gives me pause is this years trend for weak strung out systems. Ahem 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Wednesday at 03:22 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:22 AM Convection is blowing up in the northern Gulf almost identical to the NAM depiction. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Wednesday at 03:26 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:26 AM Remember only one model is really showing that problem. HRRR doesn't look bad at all. PLUS, this only affects initial moisture transport for the front end thump... Once the low spins up off the coast, moisture will easily feed back west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Wednesday at 03:31 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:31 AM The 01 and 02 HRRR is picking up on a really nice banding, especially southern Wake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted Wednesday at 03:32 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:32 AM Hey. I’m sure the Big Fish was looking and is looking at all this modeling with moisture grabbing monsters and he says he still sees 2-3in across the triangle and increasing east. He isn’t under a network here. He can say what he feels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Wednesday at 03:32 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:32 AM Looking decent for you folks to the east but when that transport of energy happens, central NC and southern central VA will be on the wrong end unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted Wednesday at 03:34 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:34 AM HRRR fills moisture into central North Carolina sooner. Definitely different than the NAM. I got 0.4” last storm. I am really hoping I can break an inch!! How I miss the days growing up in Greensboro in the 70’s! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Wednesday at 03:37 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:37 AM 17 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: I love it here. I see Brick Tamland vanished. Sorry, I actually have a life off the board. 1 2 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted Wednesday at 03:47 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:47 AM 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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