February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat

[Silver Meteor]

12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The “major” argument may have F’d the rest of the board but when it was created, I was looking at 0” of snow and now almost all models show 3-6” here. Probably sacrificed everyone for Raleigh to jackpot, but that’s a sacrifice I can live with

Raleigh jackpot? Counting your chickens before they hatch eh. 

[stormwatcherJ]

10 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Changed from what? 

Changed from “little to no additional accumulation” to “2-4 inches possible.”

[PackGrad05]

The convection would only impact moisture on the front end for foothills. Once the low spins up off the coast that’s when central nc gets most precipitation anyway


.

[EarlGrey]

Any reason why still so much discrepancies with snow totals? I can’t figure out what I need to do.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Raleigh jackpot? Counting your chickens before they hatch eh. 

I’m just happy to be here. I’ll report back my 1/2” on mulch tomorrow 

[NorthHillsWx]

Last thing I’ll say about the major storm forum, if by your logic it cost us the storm, I’ll gladly sacrifice the 1.50” of ZR it was showing in RDU to watch DC and NYC lose 25” of snow and the subsequent board meltdowns. From the movie Moana “you’re welcome” 

[eyewall]

If we get 2+ in Raleigh I will consider that a win

[StantonParkHoya]

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

If we get 2+ in Raleigh I will consider that a win

After living in the same climate as Valdosta, Georgia the past three years, having several measurable snow events in the same year is taking me aback.

[Brick Tamland]

20 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

He must be hugging the NAM

Whichever one looks the worst.

[dsaur]

1 hour ago, HKY_WX said:

Did our ancestors draw up the interstates, county and state maps based on Snow totals and 850mb maps? I wonder sometimes.

I'm pretty sure that 1 20 and I 85 are the first data points entered in every model run.

[StantonParkHoya]

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

If we get 2+ in Raleigh I will consider that a win

After living in the same climate as Valdosta, Georgia the past three years, having several measurable snow events in the same year is taking me aback.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Whichever one looks the worst.

RAH mentioned in their 3:30 AFD they expect the mix line to make it to 85. Really not sure where they are getting that other than NAM but it’s hard to ignore 

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

RAH mentioned in their 3:30 AFD they expect the mix line to make it to 85. Really not sure where they are getting that other than NAM but it’s hard to ignore 

The Mets in this area are so disillusioned it’s like they’ve been in the snow version of Guantanamo 

[eyewall]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

RAH mentioned in their 3:30 AFD they expect the mix line to make it to 85. Really not sure where they are getting that other than NAM but it’s hard to ignore 

History shows more times than not the warm nose makes more progress than modeled.

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

History shows more times than not the warm nose makes more progress than modeled.

Do we ever just get models that can figure that out or do we focus on becoming multiplanetery?

[CaryWx]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

History shows more times than not the warm nose makes more progress than modeled.

So by that logic if no models were showing a warm nose in the area then mets would still forecast a warm nose somewhere?

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

The Mets in this area are so disillusioned it’s like they’ve been in the snow version of Guantanamo 

 

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

History shows more times than not the warm nose makes more progress than modeled.

We’ve reached the point with coastal storms that we can toss models logic and science and just use a man made highway and be correct more than 75% of the time 

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

RAH mentioned in their 3:30 AFD they expect the mix line to make it to 85. Really not sure where they are getting that other than NAM but it’s hard to ignore 

But even the last NAM run still showed almost 2.5 inches of snow for Raleigh, and it's been the most conservative all day. 

[StantonParkHoya]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

But even the last NAM run still showed almost 2.5 inches of snow for Raleigh, and it's been the most conservative all day. 

Take your slop and be quiet, Brick. 

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

 

We’ve reached the point with coastal storms that we can toss models logic and science and just use a man made highway and be correct more than 75% of the time 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Take your slop and be quiet, Brick. 

You will have 0.5” of sleet and you will like it! 

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Take your slop and be quiet, Brick. 

4 to 6 here, baby!

[wxdawg10]

2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

So by that logic if no models were showing a warm nose in the area then mets would still forecast a warm nose somewhere?

By that same logic, Mets should have gone all in when every model was showing a historic blizzard a week ago? see how that works? Model data is not absolute. Common sense exists in forecasting too. Something models don't have. so yes, the warmnose always over performs in this set up.

[frazdaddy]

29 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Last thing I’ll say about the major storm forum, if by your logic it cost us the storm, I’ll gladly sacrifice the 1.50” of ZR it was showing in RDU to watch DC and NYC lose 25” of snow and the subsequent board meltdowns. From the movie Moana “you’re welcome” 

Are we really having a disco in a science forum as to whether the title of the thread will affect the outcome of this storm?

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, frazdaddy said:

Are we really having a disco in a science forum as to whether the title of the thread will affect the outcome of this storm?

Might be time for the obs thread to refocus 

[stormwatcherJ]

2 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Are we really having a disco in a science forum as to whether the title of the thread will affect the outcome of this storm?

Yes.

[RockyKnob]

13 minutes ago, eyewall said:

History shows more times than not the warm nose makes more progress than modeled.

We’ve had several events where models show the warm nose changing everything to freezing rain in Chapel Hill where we’ve stayed sleet, at least, so the warm nose is often over estimated. 

[CaryWx]

10 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

By that same logic, Mets should have gone all in when every model was showing a historic blizzard a week ago? see how that works? Model data is not absolute. Common sense exists in forecasting too. Something models don't have. so yes, the warmnose always over performs in this set up.

apples & walnuts.  Poor comparison, but I'll just leave it at that.

[StantonParkHoya]

9 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Are we really having a disco in a science forum as to whether the title of the thread will affect the outcome of this storm?

[digital snow]

According to the NWS winter weather graphics Durham has a 70-80% chance of more than 1 inch and a 10-20% chance of 6+ inches. I like percentages, but you also have to be able to read the map. Wral doesn't think you can. For those that missed it, this confirms that were f'd.

Where am I on a Map?