February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat

[Ander]

11 minutes ago, HornetsHomer91 said:

@msuwxAs far as your post earlier or the ppl on top of RAH office .... would it not be easier (especially in a situation like this where tiny tweaks could mean 4-5" and Trace -1, with more mixing over there) to just post the WWA and what you thought your floor amounts are, then tomm wake up and look at downstream and radar when its within 200 miles of the CWA? IDK I remember Panovich saying one time " No one will remember if you bust low, theyll destroy you if you bust too high". So just do WWA and tomm if you think Radar would equal WSW move up the totals then ? Thats a long winded way to say I agree with what theyre doing. So many ways this could change 

 

Gulf Coast Convection (Robbing or adding liquid if oriented properly)

Slower transfer to the Coast 

Warm Nose ect. PPL can be upset but no reason for anyone to show more than 1-3" for now minus extreme NE-NC/ VA Beach area who are prolly 4-6. 

I grew up in Massachusetts and there were some legendary weathermen there.   The only person I can think who had that stature down here was Greg Fishhel.  

Given the weather up there, some of these guys like Dick Albert became cultural icons across the region - "I should have listened to Dickie".   There was this one guy though, Bruce Schwoegler who never quite reached that level but was still a good weather guy.   He did acquire the nickname "The Forecasting Cowboy" as he would deviate from the models and guidance for big storms to tell you what he thought lol and boy he was wrong an awful lot.  

[Brick Tamland]

Everyone in the Triangle after seeing the 3k run.

[msuwx]

16 minutes ago, HornetsHomer91 said:

@msuwxAs far as your post earlier or the ppl on top of RAH office .... would it not be easier (especially in a situation like this where tiny tweaks could mean 4-5" and Trace -1, with more mixing over there) to just post the WWA and what you thought your floor amounts are, then tomm wake up and look at downstream and radar when its within 200 miles of the CWA? IDK I remember Panovich saying one time " No one will remember if you bust low, theyll destroy you if you bust too high". So just do WWA and tomm if you think Radar would equal WSW move up the totals then ? Thats a long winded way to say I agree with what theyre doing. So many ways this could change 

 

Gulf Coast Convection (Robbing or adding liquid if oriented properly)

Slower transfer to the Coast 

Warm Nose ect. PPL can be upset but no reason for anyone to show more than 1-3" for now minus extreme NE-NC/ VA Beach area who are prolly 4-6. 

I won't speak for the NWS, but WWAs and WSWs have specific criteria that go along with them, and therefore, verification associated with their issuance. So, when you put one of those out, it's essentially a forecast. Don't know if that totally makes sense....my brain is fried.  

[wxdawg10]

Another problem, is some mets obsession with "getting it right"

it becomes a competiton. Which leads  to some wild forecasts and unecessary risks.  We all love snow, but lets be real, the best mets always preach caution and are conservative by nature to varying degrees.  If a storm is difficult to forecast, they communicate it.  An Honest met is often well respected. even when they get it wrong. 

Then there are the engagement farmers. They post fantasy runs 5 days out with a throw away disclaimer so they can say "see, you guys are the ones who overreacted, i just showed what MIGHT happen"

 

[Brick Tamland]

RDPS

[WeatherHawk]

11 minutes ago, Ander said:

I grew up in Massachusetts and there were some legendary weathermen there.   The only person I can think who had that stature down here was Greg Fishhel.  

Given the weather up there, some of these guys like Dick Albert became cultural icons across the region - "I should have listened to Dickie".   There was this one guy though, Bruce Schwoegler who never quite reached that level but was still a good weather guy.   He did acquire the nickname "The Forecasting Cowboy" as he would deviate from the models and guidance for big storms to tell you what he thought lol and boy he was wrong an awful lot.  

LOL, I grew up with Frank Deal's jokes and the sliding wood boards with the felt...like I was back in Sunday school.

They have a tough job, especially with this one...models all over the place.  Hoping for some convergence on the runs today.

[lilj4425]

What are half of these weather models?  

[HornetsHomer91]

10 minutes ago, msuwx said:

I won't speak for the NWS, but WWAs and WSWs have specific criteria that go along with them, and therefore, verification associated with their issuance. So, when you put one of those out, it's essentially a forecast. Don't know if that totally makes sense....my brain is fried.  

LOL Nah i got ya ... its the whole 3" in 24hrs or 1/4" ICE ect. You sound ready for Spring 

[Regan]

[HKY_WX]

35 minutes ago, HornetsHomer91 said:

@HKY_WX I may be wrong but the Backside band on Thursday is probably best shot 321 - 77 Corridor especially now with some isolated .15 -.2" QPF in it popping up. I squeezed 1-1.5" Out of that little December one. Need 3.5" for the 6" Season ... Would be cool to split, 1-2 tomm and then 1-2 Thursday for the backdoor cover but idk. I saw NWS GSP has me at 1-2 but 10 mins East in Rowan 2-3" so suttle changes will help

It's possible. I think that band will likely be overstated by the models. My guess is it pretty much becomes an extension of the lead band.

[QC_Halo]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

The other thing I can't stand from the social media crowd is leveraging uncertainty to maintain engagement. It's the same tropes every time: "we're still x hours out, the energy is not yet on shore, we've seen a few ticks in the right direction, we can expect a NW trend". It's not just these are necessarily bad analyses, it's just that they are always biased towards the bigger snowfall for their target region, they are often based on "vibes", they cherry pick one model out of the dozens available, and they often try to give hope to a scenario that will pan out very rarely.

So basically you are describing this forum. 
Really a lot of noise here. I haven’t been on here much the last 4 years, but I seem to remember it used to be more buttoned up, especially during storm events. I know a lot of the people from back then are gone. Maybe not moderated as heavily.

[sarcean]

39 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

HRW-WRF

If I was at the casino I would cash this out

[NorthHillsWx]

If 12z short range models are to be believed pretty much unanimous support to increase precip across the state with RDU looking at 4-6”. That’s not a forecast, that’s what the models show. I’m literally punting the 12k NAM like a football. There is nothing else remotely close to a super amped MA NE coastal. I wouldn’t go crazy adjusting totals or expectations, these models have been up and down. But that’s a good start and they may be getting a read on the system as it is getting underway now. Like I said, heed caution, one run does not a storm make but could be the start of a trend

[Brick Tamland]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If 12z short range models are to be believed pretty much unanimous support to increase precip across the state with RDU looking at 4-6”. That’s not a forecast, that’s what the models show. I’m literally punting the 12k NAM like a football. There is nothing else remotely close to a super amped MA NE coastal. I wouldn’t go crazy adjusting totals or expectations, these models have been up and down. But that’s a good start and they may be getting a read on the system as it is getting underway now. Like I said, heed caution, one run does not a storm make but could be the start of a trend

Yeah, have to see if it holds throughout the day. The 12k NAM just seems off compared to all the other models.

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS largely unchanged at any level. Nice run for central NC namely the triangle N and East

[eyewall]

Allan Huffman was bullish for all snow in Raleigh.

[eyewall]

GFS is pretty much all snow for RDU now

[Upstate Tiger]

GFS looked good for most of NC. Even some snow in northern GA and the upstate.  

[StantonParkHoya]

This is getting tasty folks!!

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

GFS is pretty much all snow for RDU now

Since *potential* double digits on the coast are extremely cool I get the chase but if this trended better for us, would you stay put? 

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

This is getting tasty folks!!

It ain't over til it's over!

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Since *potential* double digits on the coast are extremely cool I get the chase but if this trended better for us, would you stay put? 

I am considering that now.

[Brick Tamland]

Canadian was all snow except south of Wake.

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Canadian was all snow except south of Wake.

Pretty sizable shift NW with precip too

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Pretty sizable shift NW with precip too

Nm, slight shift, mainly just noise 

[Brick Tamland]

RAP is on board. Had some trailing snow Thursday, too.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

RAP is on board. Had some trailing snow Thursday, too.

It’s interesting to see the consistency of models setting up the fronto band over wake. 

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s interesting to see the consistency of models setting up the fronto band over wake. 

They all appear to have it except for the 12k NAM.

[eyewall]

GFS Ensemble:

[eyewall]

SREF: