Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:11 PM FV3 has more precip, too, and a little colder than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 02:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:12 PM 3k starting to fill in nicely, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted Tuesday at 02:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:12 PM 12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Imo yes. Watch means warning level wintry weather is possible advisory means it’s not it’s not going to reach warning criteria This is incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted Tuesday at 02:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:15 PM 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Social media as a whole is a catalyst for societal decay The levels of meltdown from Northeast weenies on social media the past 2 days has been insane. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 02:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:19 PM The 3k is really keeping it cranking into Thursday for NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 02:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:21 PM NAM has some snow into Thursday as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 02:22 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 02:22 PM Just when you wanna hop off the train the NAM reels you back in 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 02:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:22 PM Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Just when you wanna hop off the train the NAM reels you back in 3k is great here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 02:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:23 PM 3K looks the best for NC for snow, followed by the FV3, and then the NAM. NAM has more precip than the FV3 but it's also warmer. 3k has a ton of precip and is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 02:25 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 02:25 PM 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: 3K looks the best for NC for snow, followed by the FV3, and then the NAM. NAM has more precip than the FV3 but it's also warmer. 3k has a ton of precip and is colder. 12k is too north. Its not snowing DC to NYC with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Tuesday at 02:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:26 PM I'll go ahead and say it since i've been thinking it. But if that wave over the plains continues to trend southwest and more amplified, you'll have a scenario where the SLP starts to slow down off of Hatteras and strengthen (basically it's a phase just further south). This will park a deform band somewhere over eastern NC/VA for a longer period of time. The lower resolution models can pick up on this type of stuff more so than the globals. Something the eastern weenies can weenigasm to/watch today and tomorrow on the models. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted Tuesday at 02:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:28 PM 16 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Social media as a whole is a catalyst for societal decay This is banter but I’ve been saying that for 5 years. People are more motivated by likes and clicks. Not by being factual or correct 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 02:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:29 PM Oh short range guidance, why are you drawing me back in lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:33 PM NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM 3k looks glorious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Tuesday at 02:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:36 PM 12k just hates for it to be all snow in Wake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 02:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:36 PM FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:37 PM Just now, StantonParkHoya said: 12k just hates for it to be all snow in Wake Yeah, it's just too warm. And only a difference of 6 inches of snow between it and the 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted Tuesday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:39 PM 18 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: The levels of meltdown from Northeast weenies on social media the past 2 days has been insane. Indeed...I'm sure sometimes they dip down into ours and then post....man the meltdown in the SE weenie hut is insane! I'm sure they have a banter thread too! Weather forecasting is tough...even with satellites and AI super computers...locals out in the backwoods here will just say, "We'll get what we get!" And they keep pumping along. Enjoy the ride folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Tuesday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:43 PM Messaging during winter storms is so so difficult. Everyone I talk to here in Wake is latching on to "snow snow snow." There will be a lot of people tomorrow calling this a huge bust, even though scenarios and worst/best case scenarios have been explained ad nauseum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Tuesday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:43 PM 2 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:46 PM 24 hours out and there's still a huge difference in the short range models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted Tuesday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:48 PM @msuwxAs far as your post earlier or the ppl on top of RAH office .... would it not be easier (especially in a situation like this where tiny tweaks could mean 4-5" and Trace -1, with more mixing over there) to just post the WWA and what you thought your floor amounts are, then tomm wake up and look at downstream and radar when its within 200 miles of the CWA? IDK I remember Panovich saying one time " No one will remember if you bust low, theyll destroy you if you bust too high". So just do WWA and tomm if you think Radar would equal WSW move up the totals then ? Thats a long winded way to say I agree with what theyre doing. So many ways this could change Gulf Coast Convection (Robbing or adding liquid if oriented properly) Slower transfer to the Coast Warm Nose ect. PPL can be upset but no reason for anyone to show more than 1-3" for now minus extreme NE-NC/ VA Beach area who are prolly 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Tuesday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:51 PM Guessing RAH will wait to see what the radar looks like early tomorrow am and decide whether to upgrade to warnings based on upstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:51 PM NAM 3k FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted Tuesday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:52 PM @HKY_WX I may be wrong but the Backside band on Thursday is probably best shot 321 - 77 Corridor especially now with some isolated .15 -.2" QPF in it popping up. I squeezed 1-1.5" Out of that little December one. Need 3.5" for the 6" Season ... Would be cool to split, 1-2 tomm and then 1-2 Thursday for the backdoor cover but idk. I saw NWS GSP has me at 1-2 but 10 mins East in Rowan 2-3" so suttle changes will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 02:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:55 PM HRW-WRF 1 1 1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted Tuesday at 02:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:59 PM 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: HRW-WRF Lots of love for upstate and foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 03:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:02 PM The WRF - ARW isn't quite as good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted Tuesday at 03:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:02 PM 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: HRW-WRF If only that model was worth anything lol. I think the 3k nam is hinting at more moisture coming in as the coastal starts to crank. Let's get that thing going and everyone should be "happy" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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