February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat

[wake4est]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Find it very strange that the sref plumes increased again and other stuff has decreased lol

SREF plumes are a less reliable DGEX

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, wake4est said:

SREF plumes are a less reliable DGEX

I'm not sure what is reliable anymore, especially more than 24 hours out.

[MHCWEATHER]

Geez. I’m just going to ask my daughter how much it’s going to snow. She turned 5 to today.

Maybe she’ll sell us her birthday wish? My Venmo is… 

[PackGrad05]

Really intrigued with the NAM and other models showing some light snow Thursday morning also.

[NorthHillsWx]

19 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Find it very strange that the sref plumes increased again and other stuff has decreased lol

NAM might tick up again 

[eyewall]

3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Really intrigued with the NAM and other models showing some light snow Thursday morning also.

NWS has this mentioned in the AFD and seems to think it is very plausible.

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

NWS has this mentioned in the AFD and seems to think it is very plausible.

It would be high ratio fluff too which would be fun especially if we have a few inches on the ground but I’m not holding my breath

[BornAgain13]

After this storm, I'll find it very difficult to have confidence in any model when it comes to winter weather here. We live in 2025, not 2000. I'm really shocked at how bad these models have been. 

[eyewall]

I have decided to go ahead and book a room in Suffolk, VA for tomorrow night.

[NorthHillsWx]

So 12z guidance today will be roughly 24 hours from the system start time. If there’s going to be a last minute uptick, it better start then. While I’d rule out any wholesale changes to the expected storm, even upticks in 0.10” can have a large impact on totals and impacts. We want to see the storm trend any bit west we can buy but most importantly we want to look for models filling in precip over the upstate and piedmont like the 3k did last night. The coastal just isn’t going to cut it we really want to see forcing from the trailing ULL pull every ounce of mid level moisture it can. A lot of times the NW trend isn’t the surface low trending west it’s models catching onto upper level features working to wring out mid level moisture. That trailing band associated with the southern edge of our ULL is also something to watch as that could save the day in western piedmont and foothills. Seeing improved banding or frontogenisis enhancement on the western side of the precip all need to be monitored by the meso models as we are well in their wheelhouse. The idea of a big coastal is gone, but there are enough dynamics at play and just enough enhancement that widespread 3”+ amounts are still possible. I’m not writing this off yet. Trends are not good. We saw the ensembles come down yesterday even though we had some good “trends” on ops (fools gold) but that seems to have caught up with us today. I’ll watch op trends through 0z tonight but we are quickly transitioning to watching CAMs 

[msuwx]

There's a very intentional reason I never publicly put out accumulation ideas before 24 to at most 48 hours in advance. Think back to the pre-internet era. If you were Joe Q. Public, you would be thinking this event was extremely well-forecast since the messaging would have pretty much been spot-on by TV mets as well as the NWS to this point. But because everyone has access to all of the modeling, social media and click-bating leads to a proliferation of terrible, single images from deterministic model runs. 

And since the general public has no idea how to weigh (and usually discount) what their phone weather app tells them, it gets even worse.

Often times, I long for the days where all of this model data wasn't so easily available. Never has the need for human meteorologists been greater. We serve as the buffer between the endless barrage of model data (which, by the way, is actually way more accurate than it has even been, but is often quite wrong) and the public. As Spann says....all model data is wrong, but some is more useful than others. The general public has no idea how to sift through mountain of incorrect data. 

[PackGrad05]

12Z HRRR is looking better

[WeatherHawk]

8 minutes ago, msuwx said:

There's a very intentional reason I never publicly put out accumulation ideas before 24 to at most 48 hours in advance. Think back to the pre-internet era. If you were Joe Q. Public, you would be thinking this event was extremely well-forecast since the messaging would have pretty much been spot-on by TV mets as well as the NWS to this point. But because everyone has access to all of the modeling, social media and click-bating leads to a proliferation of terrible, single images from deterministic model runs. 

And since the general public has no idea how to weigh (and usually discount) what their phone weather app tells them, it gets even worse.

Often times, I long for the days where all of this model data wasn't so easily available. Never has the need for human meteorologists been greater. We serve as the buffer between the endless barrage of model data (which, by the way, is actually way more accurate than it has even been, but is often quite wrong) and the public. As Spann says....all model data is wrong, but some is more useful than others. The general public has no idea how to sift through mountain of incorrect data. 

Excellent synopsis!  We are planning a trip down to Alamance county Thursday and my friends had been ready to pull the plug all week...I kept saying, "Let's just wait."  I'm the skeptic (unfortunately in most things) in the crew.  I hope that your mindset is that of our local mets, who go on the air each and every day and have to communicate their evaluation to their audience.  We appreciate them, but I'm sure it's a tough job.  Reminds me of a Far Side cartoon...man was standing with the devil...devil is pointing at two doors...the doors have signs.."Damned if you do." and "Damned if you don't."  (Google it: far side damned if you do) Be safe folks and enjoy the ride!  

[eyewall]

Raleigh downgraded to an advisory for 1-3 snow/sleet.

[StantonParkHoya]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Raleigh downgraded to an advisory for 1-3 snow/sleet.

Pansies

[PackGrad05]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Raleigh downgraded to an advisory for 1-3 snow/sleet.

Was it downgraded if it was never really a winter storm warning

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Raleigh downgraded to an advisory for 1-3 snow/sleet.

I knew it was coming when I looked at modeling and RAH updated their totals. I’d laughed at you two days ago if you’d told me this would become a nuisance event but that’s what happens when you lose 1.5” of wintry QPF in that time period. This could get upgraded still assuming it ticks up but it’s the correct call for now

[eyewall]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

I knew it was coming when I looked at modeling and RAH updated their totals. I’d laughed at you two days ago if you’d told me this would become a nuisance event but that’s what happens when you lose 1.5” of wintry QPF in that time period. This could get upgraded still assuming it ticks up but it’s the correct call for now

I agree on the call as well.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Was it downgraded if it was never really a winter storm warning

Imo yes. Watch means warning level wintry weather is possible advisory means it’s not it’s not going to reach warning criteria 

[msuwx]

2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Was it downgraded if it was never really a winter storm warning

No

[msuwx]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Imo yes. Watch means warning level wintry weather is expected advisory means it’s not it’s not going to reach warning criteria 

That isn't how the NWS views it in terms of being a 'downgrade' 

[olafminesaw]

One trend I've noticed is that for anyone west of the triangle, the majority of our precip comes from the front side WAA band (about 1"), then a massive dry slot with little  or no precip, followed by some light snow Thursday morning (dusting to 1"). Could even see some melting during the afternoon on Wednesday, with temps near freezing, especially in unshaded areas, depending on how quickly the first batch of precip moves through. I would just caution that even if forecasts verify, some may be frustrated by the more stop start nature of this event.

[eyewall]

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

One trend I've noticed is that for anyone west of the triangle, the majority of our precip comes from the front side WAA band (about 1"), then a massive dry slot with little  or no precip, followed by some light snow Thursday morning (dusting to 1"). Could even see some melting during the afternoon on Wednesday, with temps near freezing, especially in unshaded areas, depending on how quickly the first batch of precip moves through. I would just caution that even if forecasts verify, some may be frustrated by the more stop start nature of this event.

That is an excellent point!

[PackGrad05]

The 12Z HRRR increased from the last run.  It also showed light precip lasting until Thursday morning around sunrise.

[Brick Tamland]

The end of the HRRR. It was still snowing. Guess I am in a good spot since it shows 3 inches here.

[StantonParkHoya]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The end of the HRRR. It was still snowing. Guess I am in a good spot since it shows 3 inches here.

That’s from a phantom micro band. Whole thing is shit.

[Brick Tamland]

NAM has much more precip than the HRRR.

[olafminesaw]

43 minutes ago, msuwx said:

There's a very intentional reason I never publicly put out accumulation ideas before 24 to at most 48 hours in advance. Think back to the pre-internet era. If you were Joe Q. Public, you would be thinking this event was extremely well-forecast since the messaging would have pretty much been spot-on by TV mets as well as the NWS to this point. But because everyone has access to all of the modeling, social media and click-bating leads to a proliferation of terrible, single images from deterministic model runs. 

And since the general public has no idea how to weigh (and usually discount) what their phone weather app tells them, it gets even worse.

Often times, I long for the days where all of this model data wasn't so easily available. Never has the need for human meteorologists been greater. We serve as the buffer between the endless barrage of model data (which, by the way, is actually way more accurate than it has even been, but is often quite wrong) and the public. As Spann says....all model data is wrong, but some is more useful than others. The general public has no idea how to sift through mountain of incorrect data. 

The other thing I can't stand from the social media crowd is leveraging uncertainty to maintain engagement. It's the same tropes every time: "we're still x hours out, the energy is not yet on shore, we've seen a few ticks in the right direction, we can expect a NW trend". It's not just these are necessarily bad analyses, it's just that they are always biased towards the bigger snowfall for their target region, they are often based on "vibes", they cherry pick one model out of the dozens available, and they often try to give hope to a scenario that will pan out very rarely.

[NorthHillsWx]

NAM beefed up precip 

[StantonParkHoya]

Social media as a whole is a catalyst for societal decay