BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 09:40 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:40 AM We got upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, which I'm a little surprised. The NAM's have a little less totals up this way now. The HRRR is almost completely dry and the Euro is very minor 2" or less. The NWS is calling for 4"+ here. That's our warning criteria. Will be interesting but I'm just not seeing enough for us to have a warning. But I ain't no expert either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Tuesday at 09:42 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:42 AM 6z nam brings the low about 100 miles west… right off the coast of hattaras…. As much as id like to say this storm is set in stone… i think we are far from the end..12km Nam shouldn’t be used outside 12-18 hours, 3km more reasonable . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 10:30 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:30 AM The latest GRAF run has dried up a lot. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 10:46 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 10:46 AM Looks like QPF continues to go down and mid levels continue to cool. RAH pretty much said they aren’t sure there will be enough moisture to hit warning criteria in central NC. Seems like the correct call at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 10:48 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:48 AM 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Looks like QPF continues to go down and mid levels continue to cool. RAH pretty much said they aren’t sure there will be enough moisture to hit warning criteria in central NC. Seems like the correct call at this juncture Yeah I think up here they should of held off on giving us the warning but they know more than me. Would love to know what their seeing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 10:51 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 10:51 AM 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Yeah I think up here they should have held off on giving us the warning but they know more than me. Would love to know what their seeing. Yea I will be honest I do not see what they are up your way. Raleigh looks like it’s going to be on the very edge of the coastal and north and west of that QPF falls. Only place a warning looks locked in is far SE VA and NE NC. Should be a great event there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 10:59 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 10:59 AM This has to tick west, right? Every coastal like the last 10 years has ticked west right before go time and burnt Raleigh but this one ticks east? At this point I’m not sure even if it’s all snow there will be enough QPF to get more than 1-2 inches and, once again with light rates and falling in afternoon, that will be 1-2” on the grass. So a nuisance event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Tuesday at 11:07 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:07 AM Same thing happened during this system. Models had Raleigh getting a good hit, but eventually went to a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 11:13 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 11:13 AM 5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Same thing happened during this system. Models had Raleigh getting a good hit, but eventually went to a trace. Honestly that’s not far from a plausible outcome. The consensus seems to be 0.2-0.3” QPF for RDU so I seriously doubt we don’t see something accumulate but that’s likely 1-1.5”. 6z GFS and 12k NAM keep hope alive for maybe a warning but everything else cut totals. 3k NAM went from a 6-8” storm to 2-4” and the EURO now has Raleigh down to around 2” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Tuesday at 11:14 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:14 AM Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Honestly that’s not far from a plausible outcome. The consensus seems to be 0.2-0.3” QPF for RDU so I seriously doubt we don’t see something accumulate but that’s likely 1-1.5”. 6z GFS and 12k NAM keep hope alive for maybe a warning but everything else cut totals. 3k NAM went from a 6-8” storm to 2-4” and the EURO now has Raleigh down to around 2” That's one of the reasons in previous pages yesterday, I mentioned that I don't see any place in Wake getting more than 2"... South of downtown, I fully expect trace to half inch of snow/sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Tuesday at 11:16 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:16 AM I'm also just now catching up on overnight runs. The 12K NAM is the one showing the most, when last night it was the 3K. Take the average most likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 11:26 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 11:26 AM If model trends are right, I’m not sure you want to be due north of Raleigh. Lot of models swing the back edge through Raleigh to the NE and places due north get less QPF. I’m saying the Vance/granville areas and parts of Franklin county then west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Tuesday at 11:51 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:51 AM This is not what I wanted to wake up to for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 11:54 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:54 AM These models are horrible. No consistency between them and no consistency from run to run. Even the short range models go from 6 inches to 1 in less than 36 hours between runs and only 24 hours out from the start of the storm here. And the long range ones have been all over the place the whole time and still are with GFS still showing 5 inches here and the Euro barely 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 11:59 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 11:59 AM 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: These models are horrible. No consistency between them and no consistency from run to run. Even the short range models go from 6 inches to 1 in less than 36 hours between runs and only 24 hours out from the start of the storm here. And the long range ones have been all over the place the whole time and still are with GFS still showing 5 inches here and the Euro barely 2. Long way to say 1-2” snowfall incoming. Maybe 3” if someone gets a band maybe 1/2” if it mixes with sleet haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted Tuesday at 12:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:03 PM 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: The latest GRAF run has dried up a lot. Never thought I could see more snow than Raleigh with this system. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted Tuesday at 12:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:05 PM 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: These models are horrible. No consistency between them and no consistency from run to run. Even the short range models go from 6 inches to 1 in less than 36 hours between runs and only 24 hours out from the start of the storm here. And the long range ones have been all over the place the whole time and still are with GFS still showing 5 inches here and the Euro barely 2. It's hard to "Trust the Science". Feel bad for local TV Mets making forecasts. Within 24 hours the model can drastically cut totals, yet people have spent money to prepare for a significant storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted Tuesday at 12:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:09 PM These models are horrible. No consistency between them and no consistency from run to run. Even the short range models go from 6 inches to 1 in less than 36 hours between runs and only 24 hours out from the start of the storm here. And the long range ones have been all over the place the whole time and still are with GFS still showing 5 inches here and the Euro barely 2. By tommorrow this thing will be bombing out and all of us will have a foot of snow. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 12:12 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 12:12 PM My forecast totals: Triangle: Boom = 4-5” Bust =TR-1/2” Expected = 1-2” with isolated 3” possible. More east Triad: Boom = 2-3” Bust = 0” Expected = 1” Mixing will be from Raleigh south but wake will favor more snow than sleet as a whole 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Tuesday at 12:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:19 PM 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: Yeah I think up here they should of held off on giving us the warning but they know more than me. Would love to know what their seeing. I suspect they are expecting a last minute NW trend. Which does often happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Tuesday at 12:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:25 PM The NWS snow forecast maps are well coordinated, but there is obviously some disagreement because RAH held back on issuing warnings and these forecasts just across the border of the forecast office are definitely different (much more aggressive from Blacksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted Tuesday at 12:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:27 PM 7 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: I think its funny that the entire forum was clammoring for a mere inch a few weeks ago and here we are after 2 events, ready to snow in Fab Feb (finally) and we have had an epic winter across the deep, deep south, up the sandy coasts and deep freezes multiple times......and yet.....seeing a solid 2-4" across a large chunk of NC seems to be disappointing for many? I'm not even sure a big dog would satisfy most of you at this point. So what say you? 1 Big Dog of 6", or, 4 small 1-3" events? Its bc that EURO Run Saturday.... had that not been shown no one would be disappointed. It showed that and then in 24hrs literally went to near ZERO basically in the same areas. Once that was shown there was no coming back mentally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted Tuesday at 12:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:31 PM Y'all do what you want, but I'm rolling with the SREF Plumes TO THE MOON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted Tuesday at 12:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:33 PM Y'all do what you want, but I'm rolling with the SREF Plumes TO THE MOON You got one for hickory??. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Tuesday at 12:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:35 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted Tuesday at 12:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:35 PM 2 minutes ago, WiseWeather said: You got one for hickory?? . Lol just go here, click Total Sno and zoom in on the map below to find a blue dot near you, and then question all of your life choices https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 12:35 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 12:35 PM 1 minute ago, HornetsHomer91 said: Its bc that EURO Run Saturday.... had that not been shown no one would be disappointed. It showed that and then in 24hrs literally went to near ZERO basically in the same areas. Once that was shown there was no coming back mentally I actually strongly disagree. It wasn’t one run. It was nonstop runs for a week from every model showing a major storm, not necessarily a snowstorm. QPF across most areas was near 1” with over 2” east. It literally was over 1” here at day 3. It was such consistent modeling WPC jumped on it early and issued a high chance of 4+” of snow from triad to DC. Our bar in Raleigh was originally a crippling ice storm so our expectations were not high at all although I would’ve wagered the house there would at least be a significant east coast storm. To get inside day 3 then lose it in short range is what happened here. Now I’m not saying it’s cooked. A 2-4” or 3-5” snowfall would make everyone on the board happy and that’s still on the table east of 77 imo. We’ve seen last minute trends. But it wasn’t one run that sucked the entire east coast into this one and resulted in the MA forum starting two threads and then offering up posters as sacrifices… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Tuesday at 12:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:37 PM 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: This is literally different than their briefing graphic from an hour ago which shows 2-3 for wake county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 12:39 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 12:39 PM 3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Yikes. Good luck with the 3-4” in Greensboro. Hope it happens but I do not see where that’s coming from. All of this for a winter weather advisory… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 12:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:39 PM Find it very strange that the sref plumes increased again and other stuff has decreased lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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