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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat


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 The WB Euro algos for ZR vs IP appear to me to be too tilted to ZR and too little for IP. Note that the GFS and CMC on WB both tend to have more IP than Euro.
 

 Looking at the 12Z Euro qpf/850s, it has for RDU ~10 times as much qpf as ZR vs IP. But that’s despite highest 850’s staying near +1C and warmest 925s being -3C! I believe that if the algos were corrected that nearly all of the ZR at RDU is really IP. Thus the Euro’s sleet map showing 0.2” should imo be ~2.2” of sleet to go along with the 4.1” of Kuch snow meaning 6.3” of snow/IP with almost no ZR at RDU.

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8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The WB Euro algos for ZR vs IP appear to me to be too tilted to ZR and too little for IP. Note that the GFS and CMC on WB both tend to have more IP than Euro.
 

 Looking at the 12Z Euro qpf/850s, it has for RDU ~10 times as much qpf as ZR vs IP. But that’s despite highest 850’s staying near +1C and warmest 925s being -3C! I believe that if the algos were corrected that nearly all of the ZR at RDU is really IP. Thus the Euro’s sleet map showing 0.2” should imo be ~2.2” of sleet to go along with the 4.1” of Kuch snow meaning 6.3” of snow/IP with almost no ZR at RDU.

That would be awesome. Sleet on snow would make it like an ice rink.

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