NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 11:21 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:21 PM 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Maybe one. The rest have anywhere from 2 to 6 inches. I’d feel good if I was in a border county. And really good the further east you go up there. For wake I’m going 0.5-3” south to north. Raleigh is likely 1-1.5” with a cold slop of a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Monday at 11:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:22 PM Right on cue, WRAL Kat can’t stop talking warm nose 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 11:28 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:28 PM 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Right on cue, WRAL Kat can’t stop talking warm nose I don’t think they’re wrong. Maybe I’ll miss this and be happy but if anything shows a warm nose it usually wins. I really think this will be an impactful storm because temps are cold (if we get snow/IP rates) but I really don’t see more than 3” for wake and possibly a lot less south for mix area if ZR enters the chat. We just aren’t going to have the QPF to waste on mixing. Sucks. But that’s how I see it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Monday at 11:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:34 PM 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I don’t think they’re wrong. Maybe I’ll miss this and be happy but if anything shows a warm nose it usually wins. I really think this will be an impactful storm because temps are cold (if we get snow/IP rates) but I really don’t see more than 3” for wake and possibly a lot less south for mix area if ZR enters the chat. We just aren’t going to have the QPF to waste on mixing. Sucks. But that’s how I see it I’m going to try to live obliviously like all I can see is the SLP track and it’s 1994… I would never ever ever think a warm nose would be possible. So I’ll just be dumb and go all snow for North Hills north in Wake. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 11:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:34 PM For Wake, my official prediction is: 1-2" North of Downtown Raleigh Trace of snow south of Downtown Raleigh, mainly a mix. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 11:35 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:35 PM Just now, StantonParkHoya said: I’m going to try to live obliviously like all I can see is the SLP track and it’s 1994… I would never ever ever think a warm nose would be possible. So I’ll just be dumb and go all snow for North Hills north in Wake. I endorse this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 11:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:45 PM 28 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Right on cue, WRAL Kat can’t stop talking warm nose They have to in case it busts. They will talk about all the ways it could end up busting no matter how the models look. It's been that way ever since the Dec 2000 storm bust when Fishel ended up in the fountain playing the tuba because he guaranteed a big snow storm for Raleigh. Ever since then they and all the other local mets just go with the model that shows the least amount and play it safe instead of really making a forecast. They would rather it end up more than they say than end up less than they say. And then they can say we told you everything that could go wrong to cover their bases. I'm thinking 2 to 4 inches south of Raleigh and 4 to 6 inches for north of Raleigh. 6 to 8 for north of Wake. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 11:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:51 PM 18Z Euro qpf/Kuchera: with 850s never above -1C; RDU gets 3.1” (edited) of pure snow from 0.28” qpf; 2m temps start 29 and drop to 25 most of the snow; higher ratio snows to the W/NW with 850s even colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Monday at 11:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:54 PM EPS trended a little better than 12z also wetter than OP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 11:58 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:58 PM 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: 18Z Euro qpf/Kuchera: with 850s never above -1C; RDU gets 2.9” of pure snow from 0.28” qpf; 2m temps start 29 and drop to 25 most of the snow; higher ratio snows to the W/NW with 850s Another big decrease. If this continues it will be flurries. That same model had RDU at 1.26” of QPF yesterday. At least EPS looked slightly better 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Tuesday at 12:00 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:00 AM I just don't see any place in Wake getting more than 2" of snow, with most areas getting less than 1". I think model snowfall is overdone because sleet will be mixed in like crazy. I'm looking at thermals, QPF, and also what I know about climo around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 12:05 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:05 AM 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Another big decrease. If this continues it will be flurries. That same model had RDU at 1.26” of QPF yesterday. At least EPS looked slightly better At RDU, the qpf of 0.28” is ~same as the 12Z/6Z and the snow (actually a little higher at 3.1” on later map) is also similar. So, it has stabilized. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 12:08 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 12:08 AM We’re seeing differences of more than .5” of QPF across models around 36 hours out and other than EPS all ensembles have continued to trend down with precip through the day. Yet, CAMs are pretty wet even western areas. Do we trust CAMs or are we going to put our faith in globals? The differences across NC range from a nuisance event to major winter storm. I’d definitely avoid looking at the high snowfall maps. I think NE NC jacks with 4-6” and theres a swath of 1-3 that extends through triangle and south of that lies a sharp cutoff to ice. Fits climo and sounds reasonable considering vast model differences (I wouldn’t lean heavily one direction or the other) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Tuesday at 12:15 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:15 AM The high res NAM and RDPS are rather wet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted Tuesday at 12:20 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:20 AM I think the key is how quickly can the coastal get going before racing out to sea and will there be WAA snow that creeps in. As much as I hate to admit it, there is a camp that loses moisture over the mountains and the coastal gets going too late and WNC & CNC get blanked (see UK and Euro). The NAM is delivering both and is a legit storm. ATM, It looks boom or bust and why we have a 1-6 inch snowfall forecast in CNC. I'm going with the NAM because I hug whatever model gives me the most snow (minus the JMA and the ICON lol bc you are grasping at straws being thrown off the cliff after you have already broken both legs if you are hugging those models). Euro is baffling for this storm. I suppose if it's a whiff the Euro corrected first, but those numbers it was spitting out in the MA to a whiff in such a short time period is just wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sinterpol Posted Tuesday at 12:29 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:29 AM I've been following most of you on here for over 5 years now. Lots of you folks are very intelligent and I'm constantly blown away with your weather knowledge. With that being said, I feel even dumber than ever trying to figure out heads or tails of this storm. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted Tuesday at 12:31 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:31 AM Sref plumes are going to be nice uptick it appears. Will post soon. Not sure what caused the bump up, but something is going to come in good on 00z.I hope this is good news for wnc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted Tuesday at 12:31 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:31 AM Sref plumes are going to be nice uptick it appears. Will post soon. Not sure what caused the bump up, but something is going to come in good on 00z.I hope this is good news for wnc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Tuesday at 12:36 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:36 AM 21z SREF uptick from 15z 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 12:36 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:36 AM Just now, WXNewton said: 21z SREF uptick from 15z The NAM should be weenie territory for some 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 12:38 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:38 AM 2 minutes ago, WXNewton said: 21z SREF uptick from 15z Almost doubled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted Tuesday at 12:39 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:39 AM 10 minutes ago, sinterpol said: I've been following most of you on here for over 5 years now. Lots of you folks are very intelligent and I'm constantly blown away with your weather knowledge. With that being said, I feel even dumber than ever trying to figure out heads or tails of this storm. Lol…I was literally about to say the same thing. And why am i even reading…lol. ‘I think’ (popular jargon here) someone is going to be right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 12:42 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:42 AM 5 minutes ago, WXNewton said: 21z SREF uptick from 15z That's actually not the end of it. It does double from the previous run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 12:43 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:43 AM Man the sref plumes were really good. Hopefully that means the nam will be too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted Tuesday at 12:44 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:44 AM I'm adding to my weenie handbook since I am new to NC Rule #101 Europeans don't like snow in NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted Tuesday at 12:45 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:45 AM . 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 12:45 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:45 AM Doesn't it look like the national blend models and the Sref are about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 12:45 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:45 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted Tuesday at 12:46 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:46 AM .This would silence the creed playlist ive been listening to….. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 12:47 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:47 AM We are about in the Wheelhouse for the nam So the Oz should be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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