PackGrad05 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 It should also be noted that these are all snowfall maps being posted. Outside that snow is still a sleet and fzra corridor. Big impacts regardless. Also, the models are really in great agreement of a maximum over NE NC. The balloon data really helps with the model output. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6z euro is…not pretty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 55 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I still think RDU is in a great spot. Now we don’t need it bleeding further east or this is a coast only snowfall. What a drastic change over last 2 days. It fooled WPC which had triad-DC in 70% for heavy snow Might be a good thing considering it usually ends up a little NW at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 The 1/21-1/22 event recently trended super dry then within 24 hours started to expand the precip shield west. So maybe we see that but anymore runs with this trend hatteras may be the only safe spot.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Does anyone remember the event within the last [emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]] years with this exact same sweet spot? It ended up trending the same way and Raleigh was blanked. I can’t find it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 I’ve gotta say, when this first appeared, I thought the biggest risk for the forum was an 850 torch and watching western VA through the MA get buried. If you’d shown me this mornings runs two days ago and told me it was the same storm I legit may have laughed at you. We may fail, but we will not fail as bad as those north of us. Hell Richmond might win fail of the year, going from consistent 15”+ modeling for days to a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Euro folds again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 Great post by Eric Webb: https://x.com/webberweather/status/1891432322140172406?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 @PackGrad05it cut totals pretty much across the board with exception of a small section of the coastal plain to Virginia Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’ve gotta say, when this first appeared, I thought the biggest risk for the forum was an 850 torch and watching western VA through the MA get buried. If you’d shown me this mornings runs two days ago and told me it was the same storm I legit may have laughed at you. We may fail, but we will not fail as bad as those north of us. Hell Richmond might win fail of the year, going from consistent 15”+ modeling for days to a non event. If it ends up being the case it makes you wonder if the modeling is getting worse instead of better for anything outside 48 hours when it comes to winter storms here. Maybe the climate is so different now the algorithms they use are just too old now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 id take the 6z GFS and roll 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: id take the 6z GFS and roll The sweet spot is still basically the same. Just lower amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 It’s either lost at sea or it discovered treasure . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: It’s either lost at sea or it discovered treasure . Found treasure map for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: If it ends up being the case it makes you wonder if the modeling is getting worse instead of better for anything outside 48 hours when it comes to winter storms here. Maybe the climate is so different now the algorithms they use are just too old now. I think as some have said on here that models just do not do well when the NS is as dominant as it has been this year. Every single storm has trended weaker up until go time. Even the late Jan system that produced the light snow, the NW trend wasn’t from a strengthening trend, models just caught onto the mid level moisture during the last 24 hours. Now this one is an exceptional fail because every model suite missed it. Not just EPS. It’s rare to get the day 4-5 agreement we had with this storm. I mean it was run after run consistency. I try not to get pulled into long range modeling but certainly when every ensemble group is painting the same picture inside day 6 you have to take note. This will be one that we need to remember in the future about how to fail in the mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 This is truly a historic showing of the Euro model in a bad way. Unreal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 Just now, BornAgain13 said: This is truly a historic showing of the Euro model in a bad way. Unreal. It’s got Twitter Mets thoroughly flummoxed. Everyone bit on this one with EPS absence rock solid for nearly a week. You get to day 4 and with the EPS locked in the way it was, you expect at least there will be a big storm somewhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 If something doesnf turn around for this system, I'll have a tough time having confidence in any model moving forward outside of 96 hrs. Truly though, the AI was way out there for a reason. It may score the coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Maybe I’m overly optimistic or just have different expectations but for RDU I’d rather sacrifice QPF for all snow. I despise ZR and find sleet futile. So the southern trends are good in that regard, and I believe it will juice back up starting tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: This is truly a historic showing of the Euro model in a bad way. Unreal. But what does it say for all the other models trending to the Euro yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Maybe I’m overly optimistic or just have different expectations but for RDU I’d rather sacrifice QPF for all snow. I despise ZR and find sleet futile. So the southern trends are good in that regard, and I believe it will juice back up starting tonight. Hope so. It is frustrating to go from being too far south to get anything but freezing rain to being in the jackpot zone to being NW of the jackpot zone. 4 inches of snow would still be great. And maybe that jackpot zone will extend further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: But what does it say for all the other models trending to the Euro yesterday? Very true. Ain't none of them been good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Maybe I’m overly optimistic or just have different expectations but for RDU I’d rather sacrifice QPF for all snow. I despise ZR and find sleet futile. So the southern trends are good in that regard, and I believe it will juice back up starting tonight. I’m still optimistic for RDU to have a moderate snowfall and like you, I’ll sacrifice QPF if it’s snow and not ZR. But we’re solidly on the western edge now. Normally I’d say this is a good spot to be, but with our low trending weaker and not just south, we are now at real risk of missing everything. 06z GFS actually showed some positives and some of the hi res models show the coastal taking over and snow building over top of us but pretty much everyone has lost the WAA snow and that transfer to the coastal is going to leave a lot of folks dry. We are not out of it by any means and as is with this id go with 2-4” based on current modeling but the boom potential is rapidly waning and it’s looking much more likely the floor is mood flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 RDU needs 3.8” to hit climo, btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Maybe a dusting for Raleigh was being too nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: Maybe a dusting for Raleigh was being too nice. Are you just trolling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 The thing that looks wonky to me is how robust it is across the south and then it dissipates into basically 2 separate storms once it hits the mountains and foothills. Its depressing how much models can get right but yet oh so wrong within a week. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Hopefully folks in Eastern NC on this forum can cash in. It's not looking good. DT'S first guess map is gonna be way off if 12z looks like 6z lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 20 minutes ago, BooneWX said: It’s either lost at sea or it discovered treasure . My sense is it does a good job of identifying banding, dry air etc, but best used within 24 hours. Looks to me like the coastal gets going sooner which is why totals are so high, so I don't necessarily buy that. But precip with the first part of the storm crossing the mountains is better than other models so that is encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, WiseWeather said: The thing that looks wonky to me is how robust it is across the south and then it dissipates into basically 2 separate storms once it hits the mountains and foothills. Its depressing how much models can get right but yet oh so wrong within a week. . That's been happening all winter when cold air is around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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