BooneWX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Yeah could be...if the models don't start expanding back out way by lunchtime tomorrow, us back out west might be toasted. I think the track is pretty baked in at this point imo. We need to root for earlier phasing or just an undermodeled precip shield. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 52 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I’d be curious to hear the chatter in the room when making this because not a single ounce of guidance supports this west of 77. I think we have to be careful about saying “Not a single ounce of guidance supports this”. Our NWS GSP Mets are pretty good at their jobs, and they have them for a reason. Just because we don’t see the guidance that supports such a map, doesn’t mean that they don’t see things differently. Granted, this map will continue to be updated, and it could go down or up in the days to come. 25 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I think the track is pretty baked in at this point imo. We need to root for earlier phasing or just an undermodeled precip shield. I tend to agree with you here, and this is what I think the NWS GSP mets may be betting on (for some reason). They must feel the chances for a phase or a more extensive precip shield are higher than what we see from direct model output. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 If this things jogs any farther south and east it may become an ocean storm. I’m no professional though I guess we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 11 minutes ago, calculus1 said: I think we have to be careful about saying “Not a single ounce of guidance supports this”. Our NWS GSP Mets are pretty good at their jobs, and they have them for a reason. Just because we don’t see the guidance that supports such a map, doesn’t mean that they don’t see things differently. Granted, this map will continue to be updated, and it could go down or up in the days to come. I tend to agree with you here, and this is what I think the NWS GSP mets may be betting on (for some reason). They must feel the chances for a phase or a more extensive precip shield are higher than what we see from direct model output. For sure. I have a ton of respect for GSP - that’s why I said I would like to have heard some of those conversations that led to the decision given the guidance - wasn’t questioning their thought’s themselves. Would’ve been nice to be a fly on the wall as a weather nerd. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 18 minutes ago, BooneWX said: For sure. I have a ton of respect for GSP - that’s why I said I would like to have heard some of those conversations that led to the decision given the guidance - wasn’t questioning their thought’s themselves. Would’ve been nice to be a fly on the wall as a weather nerd. check the latest gefs numbers out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Looking at the latest SREF, I bet the NAM isn't as amped this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I know the SREFs get tossed out a lot, but right now between cycles there isn't much else to discuss so here's another snow mean trend to look at of tonight's latest and the 15z run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said: . Ouch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Ouch That would — not feed families — rather we would be going to the soup kitchen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Ouch It’s the SREF. Really the NAM will normally follow so early indication 0z NAM may cave to other model runs. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 SREF is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Sref is great up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: SREF is awful. I’m assuming its more juiced up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Good chance the sref is just playing catch up and will be further se like the Euro come next run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 19 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said: I don’t think the triangle would ever recover from that. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I meant in accuracy SREF is awful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: I meant in accuracy SREF is awful. I can say a lot of times for HKY the amount of precip in a rain storm has been pretty spot on. I've compared it to my rain gauge many times and it's been with-in a tenth of an inch. So maybe as far as storm QPF it's not too terrible from my personal experience. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 How did the eps look compared to 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 The MA forum actually now has 2 storm threads because the first one didn’t work out for them 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: How did the eps look compared to 12z? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, WXNewton said: Raleigh to Va Beach looks like as good a shot as that area’s had in 6 years for a major snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 0z NAM about to be much further south lol. Playing catch up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 NOAA going with 6-8" here total. Would love that but seems high for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 NWS currently has it Snow and Freezing Rain, 0.5 - 0.75" qpf Lot riding on that ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Somebody about to get NAM'D even if it is more than likely wrong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z NAM about to be much further south lol. Playing catch up. Told yall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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