olafminesaw Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, olafminesaw said: That's fairly tolerable albeit some power hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Can someone find me an analog of a miller A with that type of ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: That's fairly tolerable albeit some power hits. I think that’s conservative at this point per model consensus, which suggests at least ~twice that much accretion is quite possible. But a long ways to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, GaWx said: That (12Z Icon) could mean ~0.7” of ice accretion on trees in RDU, a huge problem that would be similar to 2002. It takes only 0.5” of accretion for widespread power outages: Yeah I think if I remember correctly depending on conditions and precip intensity ice accrual ranges from about 28% to 50% of whatever liquid falls. Someone can correct me if I am wrong but I have seen that in a paper on the topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Looks like GFS has more sleet to begin with this time in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS is still a bit convoluted with its setup but trending towards the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: Yeah I think if I remember correctly depending on conditions and precip intensity ice accrual ranges from about 28% to 50% of whatever liquid falls. Someone can correct me if I am wrong but I have seen that in a paper on the topic. From what I experienced in ATL and SAV (and confirmed by what I’ve studied), the conversion of ZR to accrual on branches/bushes approached 50% under ideal accrual conditions (winds not too strong, rain not too heavy, temps not right at 32, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 A miller A to Miller A/B hybrid seems most likely. We're basically seeing a stj vort slide over the southern tier which spawns the original SLP. That is then captured by the polar jet wave which turns it up the coast into a Kocin type SECS event for the northeast. The parent HP location plus this eventuality to me favors some mix of snow/sleet/zr. Not a pure zr storm, except for those straddling the edge. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS seems to be too light on precip back to the west considering strength and track. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, tarheelwx said: GFS seems to be too light on precip back to the west considering strength and track. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: A miller A to Miller A/B hybrid seems most likely. We're basically seeing a stj vort slide over the southern tier which spawns the original SLP. That is then captured by the polar jet wave which turns it up the coast into a Kocin type SECS event for the northeast. The parent HP location plus this eventuality to me favors some mix of snow/sleet/zr. Not a pure zr storm, except for those straddling the edge. Just like that, GFS dropping 1 to 3" of sleet in Franklin county lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: With 850s at +4 for the majority of the qpf on the 12Z GFS, mainly ZR at RDU would agree with the past….if those 850s were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Is it me or does the Canadian look further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Brick Tamland said: Is it me or does the Canadian look further south? It is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Canadian is colder and with more sleet in central NC to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Canadian is all over the place, makes it difficult to take stock in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The Canadian has a different evolution than the other models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Canadian definitely more sleet in central NC and freezing rain in southern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Canadian is all over the place, makes it difficult to take stock in took slp more off the coast this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Now that we have some trials over the past 2 months, the canadian, icon, and nam have been pretty worthless past 48 hours. I would stick to paying attention to the gfs/euro combo. The HRR will also be usueful inside of 48. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Canadian definitely more sleet in central NC and freezing rain in southern NC. Yep. 850s are +2 or lower for 3/4 of the qpf keeping ZR much lower than GFS; total qpf ~0.95” CMC, similar to gfs but much less than 1.65” of icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendave Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said: Hoping it trends colder and we can get at least a little And less This is undoubtedly the best thing that has ever occurred on these forums. Period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Canadian had almost all sleet here. Hopefully that's the start of a trend and this will be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GEFS trending colder at the surface and aloft 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I’m still highly skeptical of a large ZR area. It seems extremely likely someone will get a crippling ice storm given the unusual cold north of us and strong low level CAA but these miller As almost always trend to a narrower ZR area and more sleet. Also, the cold is deep and entrenched over Va and the high is building in as the storm moves in. Seems like a recipe for more sleet as the storm goes on and flip to snow if a deform band sets up…Agreed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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