wxtylerb Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12 minutes ago, LakeNormanStormin said: Looks like snow chances are drying up for Lake Norman/North Mecklenburg. I live here now, let's hope for a change. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Maybe we will see some change at 18z doubtful but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: WRAL's thoughts. Typical dividing line near Raleigh. I know they sobbed having to make a winter weather map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I'm on the NWS Raleigh page trying to find previous snowfall maps from past events. I can't find them. Anyone have a link to them? I remember a similar setup to this within 5 years where it kept trending more and more NE and eventually Wake was entirely out of it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Are we really worried about the ICON? Especially when the Euro, UK and Canadian looks better. The 18Z Icon looks great for RDU: 0.92” qpf. Of this ~0.35” is with snow (say ~3” Kuchera) and ~0.57” is with sleet..1.7” of sleet. Total of ~4.7” snow/sleet RDU with hardly any, if any, ZR. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18z ICON improved up this way. Around 6" Kuchera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18z RGEM is very dry west of Durham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18z GFS pretty sizable shift south and east. . 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 GFS is gonna be a 4-5 hour storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Rsheely88 said: 18z GFS pretty sizable shift south and east. . A little but it kinda maintained in a lot of the same locations from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18z GFS pretty sizable shift south and east. .Still tight gradient in the RAL area but seeing the gfs solution toward Euro and CMC is good sign. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The GFS barely has a southern stream low. Most of the moisture in western sections is from WAA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Rsheely88 said: Still dry toward the RAL area but seeing the gfs solution toward Euro and CMC is good sign. . It's not dry in Raleigh just a mix 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's not dry in Raleigh just a mix Oh it’s pretty dang dry. About 0.25” of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GFS did trend south, most of Wake would be a sleet/freezing rain mix. As the RAH discussion stated, the GFS would be a moderate nuisance event with impacts during the day Wednesday and lingering impacts Thursday morning from ice on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GFS still playing catchup to the Euro. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Though impactful bc it’s frozen precip, the GFS is a nuisance event and falls almost entirely in the afternoon with light rates. It’s probably a WWA storm for everyone but SE VA. Pathetic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: GFS did trend south, most of Wake would be a sleet/freezing rain mix. As the RAH discussion stated, the GFS would be a moderate nuisance event with impacts during the day Wednesday and lingering impacts Thursday morning from ice on the roads. 18Z GFS Sleet: ZR: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 RDU ~2” snow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: RDU ~2” snow/sleet With it falling in the afternoon and midday and light rates, GFS is wet roads and grass maybe covered 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: With it falling in the afternoon and midday and light rates, GFS is wet roads and grass maybe covered Roads would be nasty, not just wet.....icy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro/UK/Canadian vs GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: With it falling in the afternoon and midday and light rates, GFS is wet roads and grass maybe covered At least we will get some daytime snow with this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, PackGrad05 said: Roads would be nasty, not just wet.....icy Tough to get icy roads with light rates in late February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The GFS shows temperatures in the upper 20s during the afternoon on Wednesday while precip is falling. That would absolutely create hazards on roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Roads would be nasty, not just wet.....icy Two words: sun angle. Yes I said sun angle. I don’t care if it’s 25 degrees it will not stick in the middle of the day this time of year unless it’s ripping and that 0.25” will be half wasted in melting. Late February it’s guaranteed to be wet roads unless you have rates. We’ve seen this time and time again. I guarantee if the GFS verified no one on here would have snow covered roads. There’d be black ice the next day for sure. I love daytime snow except in late season bc it doesn’t stick unless it’s ripping. Good news is we have plenty of models showing more QPF and banding so this is moot unless the GFS verified. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Oh yeah the roads are gonna be a mess regardless! Temps are gonna be cold while precip is falling.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Also consider how cold it will be the next couple of nights. Ground temps ain't gonna be as warm as u think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Two words: sun angle. Yes I said sun angle. I don’t care if it’s 25 degrees it will not stick in the middle of the day this time of year and that 0.25” will be half wasted in melting. Late February it’s guaranteed to be wet roads unless you have rates. We’ve seen this time and time again. I guarantee if the GFS verified no one on here would have snow covered roads. There’d be black ice the next day for sure. I love daytime snow except in late season bc it doesn’t stick unless it’s ripping. Good news is we have plenty of models showing more QPF and banding so this is moot unless the GFS verified. Agree to disagree. And I never said snow-covered roads... but roads will be a mess. and hazardous. There would likely also be early release or closures of businesses/schools 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GEFS out to 60 looks juicier than OP, we shall see how well they agree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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