HKY_WX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 There will likely be an area of enhancement in NE NC/SE VA as the SLP strengthens. This is due to the PJ wave dropping in behind and re-energizing it. We've seen this scenario many times. THe GFS/EURO/GGM are all showing it now. Also the models have clued in on the strength of the blocking and are now shunting this OTS after hitting NC/VA which does make a lot of sense when you look at the broad pattern below: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Canadian actually is improving some each run, filling in more moisture each run. Last 3 runs... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12Z CMC qpf: RDU 0.5-0.6” all wintry is a major winter storm there; it is mainly a major snow as Brick showed sleet: a lot parts of E NC 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 The GFS, though still the warmest at mid levels, continues to chisel away at the warm nose from below. You’re starting to see the ZR area collapse and more sleet. This was discussed the past few days as a trend with miller-As and we’re now seeing it on the model. What was once a thick warm nose across a lot of the piedmont is now looking like a relatively narrow transition zone (expected) with more sleet than ZR 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 How quickly we forget lol... This will trend both ways bf Weds. Just enjoy the fact that a juicy system is on the way and frozen precip is likely for many of us. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 19 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The worries regarding QPF will be short-lived when we get into the short-range. Especially given the consistency of the EURO with totals over 1". TheSTJ wave is amplified and doesn't shear out. It will likely be the opposite as the PJ wave drops in behind it and phases with it. How close to the coast is the million dollar question. Precip type is still the main issue in my mind for NC and where the SN/IP/ZR lines setup. That's still very much in question. As the models resolve the track of the low, the mid-levels (900mb-700mb) will be impacted and dictate that. So are you thinking QPF will increase as we get closer to the storm vs the model QPF output we are seeing now? Once the models figure out the exact track of the low pressure will we see this translate to more of a widespread precip on the surface maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 20 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z CMC qpf: RDU 0.5-0.6” all wintry is a major winter storm there sleet: a lot parts of E NC I’m not going to speak for everyone bc the storm has definitely trended a little weaker and this is an IMBY post but RDU has probably been the biggest benefactor of trends since yesterday. It’s gone from a plain rain/ice look to crippling ice storm to now better chance of a sleet/snow event. QPF has gone down but I can speak for everyone when I say we’ll take that as a trade off for colder mid levels. Now we don’t want this to trend strung out but imo thats not likely. It wants to strengthen on the coast. Starting to think the triad-southeastern VA and the top two counties of NC below the border will be the sweet spot. There will likely be a nasty cutoff south of there. Not buying the all snow idea in Raleigh unless drastic changes occur the next couple days, it will be a mixed bag 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, WXNewton said: So are you thinking QPF will increase as we get closer to the storm vs the model QPF output we are seeing now? Once the models figure out the exact track of the low pressure will we see this translate to more of a widespread precip on the surface maps? I've just observed a bias this winter on the GFS specifically where it shears out STJ s/w's too quickly. It will likely be wrong with what it's currently showing. It doesn't make much sense in comparison to the pattern aloft. Eastern areas will see more QPF than western areas just by nature of being closer to the moisture source, but there will also be mixing issues further east. The only way I could see this busting for western NC is if the lead wave does indeed shear out/trend weaker and the main show is associated with the Atlantic low as the PJ re-energizes it. That said, I would need to see the EURO show this and it hasn't up to this point. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Say about it what you will, but the GFS has been rock steady for several runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This should help in some confidence with EURO suite 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12Z UK: slightly colder vs 0Z with RDU area near snow/sleet line vs almost all sleet on 0Z early. Thus, the snow maps on Pivotal for N Wake county should be pretty accurate this time for 10:1. S Wake: not quite as accurate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 UK looks good for Wake and points north and west. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 UK snow map: 5-6” N Wake at 10:1 (further south not accurate especially well south because counts all wintry precip as snow) https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2025021612&fh=93&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Shaping up for an RDU to Norfolk sweet spot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Right now it looks like the Canadian. UK and Euro vs the GFS as far as more snow versus ice for Wake and points north in NC. That is if the current Euro run holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Right now it looks like the Canadian. UK and Euro vs the GFS as far as more snow versus ice for Wake and points north in NC. That is if the current Euro run holds serve. Yeah but we can we really trust the Canadian? They booed our national anthem. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Thanks, Brick. For Fayetteville, that 2.9” is really mainly 0.7” of ZR/icestorm with 850s +3+ and sfc temps starting near 32 and falling to high 20s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Va Beach sweet spot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 I’ll take my 2-4” glacier and call it a season lol. Very bad trends west of triangle and in most of Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: I’ll take my 2-4” glacier and call it a season lol. Very bad trends west of triangle and in most of Virginia A hell of a year for the I-95 corridor in the central eastern/northeastern part of the state. Probably the best winter in decades if this one pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12Z Euro: Big hit RDU kuchera 7.9” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 I’ll take my 2-4” glacier and call it a season lol. Very bad trends west of triangle and in most of Virginia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Nasty gradient in Wilson County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 EURO is a Raleigh-northeast storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: EURO is a Raleigh-northeast storm Raleigh smacked… the Euro version of being NAM’d! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12Z Euro: Big hit RDU kuchera 7.9” Noticeable shift SE with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 If this keeps up, its going to be an central/eastern NC/VA Snowstorm special. Crazy trends the last 24 hours. Models are feeling the push of the blocking in Canada. Prepare for crazy NAM/HRRR runs the next couple nights. Get your whiskey ready. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 By the time this storm is done trending it'll be a flurry off Cape Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This system is trending the wrong direction. Grasping at straws again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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