NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 What could slow this down/cause a pivot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Here we go with the weaker, strung out system like I warned yesterday. Atmospheric memory is hard to beat The big amped up solution we were seeing all the way up until yesterday afternoon would have cut all but the high elevations out of the possibility of significant snow. Unless we continue a significant trend towards even less phasing/faster, the majority of the subforum would certainly prefer the strung out solution. The big double digit snow totals for western NC through the I85 corridor was always going to be a thread the needle/low probability outcome anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The last system trended weaker in this timeframe and everyone jumped ship. Then it came back within 24-48 hours of the start. Also, this could be high impact regardless. Especially with ice. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 84 hr RGEM is certainly colder but looks weak.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Goodness what would make the storm come thru more slowly, anymore the snowstorms move thru fast and the rain moves thru slowly, what is the deal, slow down please, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Focus on impacts also. The January system was 5-6 hours of precip for central Nc and caused multiple days of impacts with lingering cold temps at night . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The big amped up solution we were seeing all the way up until yesterday afternoon would have cut all but the high elevations out of the possibility of significant snow. Unless we continue a significant trend towards even less phasing/faster, the majority of the subforum would certainly prefer the strung out solution. The big double digit snow totals for western NC through the I85 corridor was always going to be a thread the needle/low probability outcome anyway. If the trend continues, the piedmont will only see light amounts from your ideal solution. Weaker also runs the risk of cold transport not being as good and lighter precip could mean more mix. A stronger system has more boom or bust potential sure but if all you want is an inch or 2 that falls in 4 to 6 hours then root for this solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 All folks west of I-95 are dangerously teetering towards looking at pictures of an OBX snow. It isn’t just western NC. We’ve got almost 3 full days for this to continue moving in the direction it currently is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Regardless of what happens with this storm, this has at least been a pretty exciting winter to track events! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, BooneWX said: All folks west of I-95 are dangerously teetering towards looking at pictures of an OBX snow. It isn’t just western NC. We’ve got almost 3 full days for this to continue moving in the direction it currently is. As well as move back west, how many times have we seen this happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Our current storm system is not lacking energy. There are severe thunderstorm warnings from the NC/VA line to the Gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I wouldn't cliff jump yet. The energy is just hitting the west coast now, over 3,000 miles away. Climo says the MA should stop panicking and I should be worried about a warm nose, not another beach storm. It's probably our last chance for the season. Hoping for double digits and then I am ready for low 80's, golf and bumble bees. Happy Sunday! I hope we cash in! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Climatology>long range computer simulations. I'd be feeling pretty good in the triad. My neighborhood is 20 miles west of the fall line so we almost always dance on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: NWS Raleigh posted this on Facebook with regards to 00z euro: “However, I'm concerned that model may be overdone, given the strong jet streak aloft that may bring in some dry air and push the storm to the northeast rather fast late Wed evening. Both of those would tend to limit overall precip amounts. So perhaps leaning toward the GFS which features less overall precip may be the better way to lean at this particular moment. But of course it's the weather, and things can change either way. It's worth keeping in mind that even the lesser GFS amounts are still impactful to central NC. It doesn't take much wintry precip to cause problems here in this part of the country. Stay tuned!” . We do tend to ignore the jet stream impact, which the models tend to underestimate as well. If we can get the storm to slow down a bit we would go from unfavorable jet dynamics as the GFS depicts (right side of the jet streak), to neutral/favorable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flair_2000 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 19 minutes ago, Dunkman said: Our current storm system is not lacking energy. There are severe thunderstorm warnings from the NC/VA line to the Gulf. Not sure I've seen storm motion at 90 mph around here! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I wouldn't cliff jump yet. The energy is just hitting the west coast now, over 3,000 miles away. Climo says the MA should stop panicking and I should be worried about a warm nose, not another beach storm. It's probably our last chance for the season. Hoping for double digits and then I am ready for low 80's, golf and bumble bees. Happy Sunday! I hope we cash in!The cliff is always one step away around my part of the state. I’m so use to it I’m not sure i realized I fall off. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Encouraging to see temps in the mid 20s. Should stave off the *drip drip. Rates may be low to start with dry air/poor dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 NAM is still warm but it's also progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Balloon data will greatly improve model consistency as we get into tonight and tomorrow morning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Models are also starting to weaken the confluence in the NE along with having a weaker system. There is less cold out ahead of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Which models and which runs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KrummWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I do find it interesting that The Weather Chanel app has 5-8" for Raleigh on the 19th day, and 1-3 on the 19th night. Thays only 3 days away. Are they slow to update or sniffing something out? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, KrummWx said: I do find it interesting that The Weather Chanel app has 5-8" for Raleigh on the 19th day, and 1-3 on the 19th night. Thays only 3 days away. Are they slow to update or sniffing something out? Don't look at those apps. They are largely based on one deterministic run and susceptible to wild swings and lag as new data comes in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 22 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Models are also starting to weaken the confluence in the NE along with having a weaker system. There is less cold out ahead of the storm. I'm not seeing that across the models. Even the nam had a better cold press this last run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 29 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Models are also starting to weaken the confluence in the NE along with having a weaker system. There is less cold out ahead of the storm. Haven’t seen this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I'm not seeing that across the models. Even the nam had a better cold press this last run No it didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 ICON seems to be trending the energy back south and west each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I warned about the strung out system nobody listened. I'm warning about less confluence. Nobody listening. You'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This went from a HECS to a nothing burger real quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 ICON looks good for central NC. The snow/ice line is right across Wake, per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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