WiseWeather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Anybody have the 6z euro?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 11 minutes ago, WiseWeather said: Anybody have the 6z euro? . Looks a little more north to me, but I don't have maps for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18 minutes ago, WiseWeather said: Anybody have the 6z euro? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro definitely not as good as 0z. Trended more east like gfs and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, WXNewton said: Basically, has not changed much from 0z as far as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, CentralNC said: Basically, has not changed much from 0z as far as I can tell. Yeah cut totals quite a bit back west, it looked like precip was lighter at first and storm moved through a little quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, CentralNC said: Basically, has not changed much from 0z as far as I can tell. More progressive and went east. It needs to slow down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6z EuroTrack looks to be the same for the LP but 6z appears to be warmer at 850.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Rsheely88 said: 6z Euro Track looks to be the same for the LP but 6z appears to be warmer at 850. . It cut totals back right much as well. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 The faster trend is not what we want 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: The faster trend is not what we want Yeah it looks to me it's just scooting along quickly from something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 EPS is going to be weaker and more strung out. We go through this volatility with the models every time when we are about 4 days from the storm. I suspected this was coming, but also don't believe it will be the end result either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, WXNewton said: EPS is going to be weaker and more strung out. We go through this volatility with the models every time when we are getting into this time frame of 4 days from storm. I suspected this was coming, but also don't believe it will be the end result either. Definitely not headed in the right direction. I hope 12z comes back strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Disappointing 06z runs to wake up to after the 0z party last night but we’re in the 3-4 day timeframe now so changes are to be expected but trends need to be accounted for. Hopefully this sped up/strung out look isn’t the trend but literally last cycle everything was looking better so it may just be a blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Definitely not headed in the right direction. I hope 12z comes back strong. The trend for now suggests that 12z might be even quicker and less moisture, but once that stops I think starting on Monday evening and the last 24 hrs of runs before the storm we will see everything correct back. Just my opinion, I have cliff dived many times over the years in the 48-90 hr timeframe just to come back in at the last minute. If I remember correctly the Dec storm of 2018 did this same thing and the first model to latch on to a bigger storm in the short range was the HRRR. It's not ideal to see this happening and it wrecks your emotions but I do believe more changes are coming for the worse and then better again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Definitely not headed in the right direction. I hope 12z comes back strong. Still has the Low in practically perfect position for Central NC, Central VA and SE VA snowstorm. I am not worrying too much about totals this far out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Most guidance is still solid for a lot of the upper SE but we either need to hold serve or improve. The system Definitely doesn't need to speed up anymore lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 The energy that becomes our system is moving ashore today 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Does anyone have totals from the 0z AI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Looking at the EPS since last Thursday, the position of the low pressure system over the Gulf Coast hasn't really changed faster or slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 However, this is a much different setup. We seem to be focusing on snow, but it is going to be a huge impact event regardless of precip type. Also, I can't remember the last time the EPS looked like this, this close to the event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 WNC cant win for losing at this point. We get rain and it floods for days but when it involves snow or some other form of wintery precip we get nada. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, WiseWeather said: WNC cant win for losing at this point. We get rain and it floods for days but when it involves snow or some other form of wintery precip we get nada. . Terrible trends for WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, WiseWeather said: WNC cant win for losing at this point. We get rain and it floods for days but when it involves snow or some other form of wintery precip we get nada. . I would not give up just yet, grasshopper. Still a ways to go on this one. Trend is not good but changes are probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 NWS Raleigh posted this on Facebook with regards to 00z euro: “However, I'm concerned that model may be overdone, given the strong jet streak aloft that may bring in some dry air and push the storm to the northeast rather fast late Wed evening. Both of those would tend to limit overall precip amounts. So perhaps leaning toward the GFS which features less overall precip may be the better way to lean at this particular moment. But of course it's the weather, and things can change either way. It's worth keeping in mind that even the lesser GFS amounts are still impactful to central NC. It doesn't take much wintry precip to cause problems here in this part of the country. Stay tuned!”. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I would not give up just yet, grasshopper. Still a ways to go on this one. Trend is not good but changes are probable.You’re right… it isnt even over land yet. My apologies.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 That graphic is only snow amount impacts. Ice would extend much further south . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Here we go with the weaker, strung out system like I warned yesterday. Atmospheric memory is hard to beat 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now