LakeNormanStormin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Which model/s we placing our chips on this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 So far UK and Canadian have more snow in NC and GFS has more ice. Last Euro run was more like the UK and Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, LakeNormanStormin said: Which model/s we placing our chips on this time? The one that shows the least snow IMBY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, LakeNormanStormin said: Which model/s we placing our chips on this time? The NAM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Here's the latest blend of all the models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sinterpol Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I'd be happy with 3 inches of snow with ice on top. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 The IMBY takes will always be a part of tracking but I’ll sum up 0z so far: Positive: triangle Negative: everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: The IMBY takes will always be a part of tracking but I’ll sum up 0z so far: Positive: triangle Negative: everyone else Not negative for NENC and Hampton Roads but mostly everywhere else yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Honestly, the CMC was a pretty big increase for more folks than what it appears. The lee side of the mtns dropped the most and most totals increased from Catawba County east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 25 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Congrats Tidewater The 7.6” of RDU “snow” on this Pivotal snow map is way off. Pivotal UK snow maps are typically way overdone on the S side due to counting all wintry as snow. RDU gets a lot of qpf (1.0”) but it is mainly from sleet as ~0.75” falls with 850s +1 to +2. There’s ~0.2” falling as ZR when 850s/925s warm above that. There’s ~0.05” falling as snow. So, 0.75” qpf as sleet is ~2.25” of sleet. Add 0.5” of snow to get 2.75” of an overall dense accumulation….it wouldn’t go anywhere fast! It would have the staying power of 7.6” or more of snow. I had that much sleet here in Jan. It was awesome! @wncsnow knows about the problems with Pivotal UK snow maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro looks good again and a big hit for 85 N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 0Z Euro huge snow hit for many: Kuchera (WB Kuchera Euro are pretty accurate) Sleet underdone on WB Euro: ZR overdone on WB euro: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 0Z Euro huge snow hit for many: KucheraEuro isn’t wavering…. Why are all the others?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Heavy quick hitter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 EURO similar overall but yet again colder at surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro phases at 84-90 and a big storm,still cookin. UKMET with a partial/late phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 UK comparison of 0Z vs 12Z at RDU: 12Z UK RDU qpf 1.5”. Of this ~0.1” is snow, ~0.1” is sleet, ~1.1” is ZR (ouch), and 0.2” is rain. 0Z UK is colder than 12Z. RDU qpf 1.0”. Of this, ~0.05” is snow, ~0.75” is sleet, and ~0.2” is ZR. So, much more sleet and way less ZR due to colder aloft. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 EPS anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: EPS anyone? EPS 10:1: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18z to 00z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Thankful the Euro held serve and the EPS. Gonna be a fun time of tracking .. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Fwiw, the AI shifted significantly back west bringing much more QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 It’s far out but RGEM is very cold. Looks like all snow in northern 1/2 of NC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 GFS largely holds serve. Maybe a tick colder at the surface and a hair drier? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Warm nose is again chiseled away on the GFS. 925s are cooler too. Sleet for most of triangle 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GFS largely holds serve. Maybe a tick colder at the surface and a hair drier?Yeah GFS no major changes. Glad the euro and eps are on our side with the Canadian and UK. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Man the GFS is fast with the storm. It’s over before it really begins. Still big differences between it and other guidance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrtsdsn Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Hoping this keeps dropping south a bit more for the Charlotte area. Fingers crossed and enjoying the ride! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Man the GFS is fast with the storm. It’s over before it really begins. Still big differences between it and other guidance It seems to always be playing catch-up. For us in the triad QPF is the big question now as it seems more likely than not we will get mostly snow (although never count out the warm nose.). Usually the Euro over does it, so I'm guessing .5-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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