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February 19-20 Major Winter Storm Threat


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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

The westerners did their best to burn this place down yesterday but we persevered and ended up with a great storm. Congrats to those who saw good snows. I’ll be interested to see totals but sounds like 2-4” for most of triangle with some isolated jackpots and much more to the east. Had a blast tracking this one and, as I finish my last drink of the evening, it is still snowing. A frustrating storm but our season total is now 5.10” (0.60”, 1.30”, 3.20”) and if @GaWxis correct that gets my backyard to climo for the season (I thought it was 5.80”). It’s been a wild ride this week but I’m glad we finally pulled out a decent coastal in central NC and enjoyed the discussion on here as always 

What exactly did we do to burn it down? Post model runs? I didn't see any western posters post about hoping you all got nothing. The dry air was real. Places like where @BornAgain13 lives were under a WSW and got very little. 

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2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

What exactly did we do to burn it down? Post model runs? I didn't see any western posters post about hoping you all got nothing. The dry air was real. Places like where @BornAgain13 lives were under a WSW and got very little. 

We may of been close to 1/2" but it was still beautiful.  I'm hoping that burst of Snow will get us tomorrow.  But yes ours should of been an advisory and not warning but that's how crazy the system was. It went from being at least 4" to not much. 

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14 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

We may of been close to 1/2" but it was still beautiful.  I'm hoping that burst of Snow will get us tomorrow.  But yes ours should have been an advisory and not warning but that's how crazy the system was. It went from being at least 4" to not much. 

We talked about this yesterday but I still have no clue why you were raised to a warning. That was shocking and clearly not the right call 

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 I realize the upper energy is expected to produce a little more snow in much of the area. But based on what has fallen, any opinions about which global did best? I know the UKMET cut its totals way down starting with the 0Z 1/17 run and went too low for the most part at least in the RDU area after earlier being a bit too high on some even after adjusting the inaccurate Pivotal clown maps downward. The Euro was way too high as we know in many N areas including RDU on some runs 0Z 1/16 and earlier, but it seemed to do fairly well afterward once it knocked the amounts (snow and qpf down).

 Didn’t the steady GFS do pretty well in RDU? Was it the best? Maybe not the Goofy of old??

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2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I realize the upper energy is expected to produce a little more snow in much of the area. But based on what has fallen, any opinions about which global did best? I know the UKMET cut its totals way down starting with the 0Z 1/17 run and went too low for the most part at least in the RDU area after earlier being a bit too high on some even after adjusting the inaccurate Pivotal clown maps downward. The Euro was way too high as we know in many N areas including RDU on some runs 0Z 1/16 and earlier, but it seemed to do fairly well afterward once it knocked the amounts (snow and qpf down).

 Didn’t the steady GFS do pretty well in RDU? Was it the best? Maybe not the Goofy of old??

I’d say GFS. Was a touch too high but didn’t bounce around like the others.

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 For the record, today’s storm occurred with a strengthening strong +PNA, strong but rapidly weakening -AO, weakening weak -NAO, neutral rising EPO, and weakening moderate MJO phase 8. This combination of indices certainly favors cold in the SE US in Feb in general.

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9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I realize the upper energy is expected to produce a little more snow in much of the area. But based on what has fallen, any opinions about which global did best? I know the UKMET cut its totals way down starting with the 0Z 1/17 run and went too low for the most part at least in the RDU area after earlier being a bit too high on some even after adjusting the inaccurate Pivotal clown maps downward. The Euro was way too high as we know in many N areas including RDU on some runs 0Z 1/16 and earlier, but it seemed to do fairly well afterward once it knocked the amounts (snow and qpf down).

 Didn’t the steady GFS do pretty well in RDU? Was it the best? Maybe not the Goofy of old??

Gfs

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