rxwxunc Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 My professor’s favorite saying is the devil is in the details. With these weak strung out systems, it is going to come down to poorly modeled mesoscale features which is ironically what the mesoscale models are supposed to iron out . This is like a car wreck I can’t look away from! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/17/2025 at 10:24 PM, HKY_WX said: My thoughts: AVL to HKY Corridor: T to 2 CLT: 1 to 2 GSO: 2 to 3 RDU: 3 to 5 Rocky Mount to VAB: 4 to 8 (likely more in spots) I'll stick to the above. I think there's a bit of overpanic tonight. The globals have been pretty steady today while the high res models struggle with the gulf convective issues. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 So is there any chance that they phase and the models aren’t picking up on it?? Wishful optimistic thinking here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 HRRR continues to look good. Isn't as drastic as NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said: Sorry, I actually have a life off the board. Don’t be sorry…haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 For the record to help evaluate model performance, 0Z UKMET for RDU dropped to 0.9” snow on 10:1 of qpf. 100% snow. Last runs starting with 0Z 2/17 run: 1.9”, 0.6”, 2.1”, 1.5”, 1.4”, 2.2”, 0.9”. So, UK has been drier than most models since the 0Z 2/17 run. Before that, UK was among the snowier models with 5.5” on 12Z 2/16 run. These are Pivotal 10:1 snow amounts. In these cases they were usable because the precip has been almost all snow since the 12Z 2/16 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 0Z Euro Kuchera: up slightly at RDU to 2.6” from 2.4”/2.3” prior two runs: RDU qpf 0.29” (nearly) all falling as snow; slightly higher than prior 4 runs (they were 0.25-0.26”): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 SREF with a little, but still significant, bump for the triad - and really most people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Both 12k and 3k NAM trended better for triad and WNC. Dry slot has been filled somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6 minutes ago, ForsythWx said: Both 12k and 3k NAM trended better for triad and WNC. Dry slot has been filled somewhat 3K 6Z NAM 850 0C line is much further north than the 0Z. Now it has significant sleet in RDU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Start the trend!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 coastal lows that get their moisture from the gulf of america always over perform. 4 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Based on radar trends I still think Raleigh area looks pretty good. In my neck of the woods, not so much. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 49 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Based on radar trends I still think Raleigh area looks pretty good. In my neck of the woods, not so much. Models looked abysmal for the triad overnight, but it's encouraging to see the hires models tend towards throwing more moisture back west with WAA as frontogenesis pushes moisture NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Would love for the GFS to be right here but the way things are looking, we will be fortunate to get a dusting or coating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Positive trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 First potential flakes moving off the foothills. Could produce light snow/flurries, but no mechanism to develop meaningful precip atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: First potential flakes moving off the foothills. Could produce light snow/flurries, but no mechanism to develop meaningful precip atm I can tell you now it's flurries at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Trends for round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I can tell you now it's flurries at best. I can tell you now… prepare to be disappointed.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 HRRR trends have definitely been to increase the western expanse of the precipitation and to build it back in for a slightly longer duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 20 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: First potential flakes moving off the foothills. Could produce light snow/flurries, but no mechanism to develop meaningful precip atm I am under that right now and I have yet to see the first flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: HRRR trends have definitely been to increase the western expanse of the precipitation and to build it back in for a slightly longer duration event. Good thing, because everyone is already posting on FB about moisture transport from the gulf being robbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6 minutes ago, avianman said: I am under that right now and I have yet to see the first flake. Me too. Not a single flake so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 At this point, models mean nothing. Just watch the radar and you will see the moisture drying up at the SC/GA line. Looks like nothing but light rain and sprinkles for the Upstate, with the same spreading into Piedmont NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 10 minutes ago, Regan said: That's a lot of different zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I’m C2D. When you’re so close, you’re both. Still it’s in keeping with others thoughts. C2D is 1-4in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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