Silver Meteor Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:14 PM, NorthHillsWx said: The “major” argument may have F’d the rest of the board but when it was created, I was looking at 0” of snow and now almost all models show 3-6” here. Probably sacrificed everyone for Raleigh to jackpot, but that’s a sacrifice I can live with Expand Raleigh jackpot? Counting your chickens before they hatch eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:14 PM, Silver Meteor said: Changed from what? Expand Changed from “little to no additional accumulation” to “2-4 inches possible.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The convection would only impact moisture on the front end for foothills. Once the low spins up off the coast that’s when central nc gets most precipitation anyway . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Any reason why still so much discrepancies with snow totals? I can’t figure out what I need to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:25 PM, Silver Meteor said: Raleigh jackpot? Counting your chickens before they hatch eh. Expand I’m just happy to be here. I’ll report back my 1/2” on mulch tomorrow 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 Last thing I’ll say about the major storm forum, if by your logic it cost us the storm, I’ll gladly sacrifice the 1.50” of ZR it was showing in RDU to watch DC and NYC lose 25” of snow and the subsequent board meltdowns. From the movie Moana “you’re welcome” 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 If we get 2+ in Raleigh I will consider that a win 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:36 PM, eyewall said: If we get 2+ in Raleigh I will consider that a win Expand After living in the same climate as Valdosta, Georgia the past three years, having several measurable snow events in the same year is taking me aback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:24 PM, NorthHillsWx said: He must be hugging the NAM Expand Whichever one looks the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 10:22 PM, HKY_WX said: Did our ancestors draw up the interstates, county and state maps based on Snow totals and 850mb maps? I wonder sometimes. Expand I'm pretty sure that 1 20 and I 85 are the first data points entered in every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:36 PM, eyewall said: If we get 2+ in Raleigh I will consider that a win Expand After living in the same climate as Valdosta, Georgia the past three years, having several measurable snow events in the same year is taking me aback. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:45 PM, Brick Tamland said: Whichever one looks the worst. Expand RAH mentioned in their 3:30 AFD they expect the mix line to make it to 85. Really not sure where they are getting that other than NAM but it’s hard to ignore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:50 PM, NorthHillsWx said: RAH mentioned in their 3:30 AFD they expect the mix line to make it to 85. Really not sure where they are getting that other than NAM but it’s hard to ignore Expand The Mets in this area are so disillusioned it’s like they’ve been in the snow version of Guantanamo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:50 PM, NorthHillsWx said: RAH mentioned in their 3:30 AFD they expect the mix line to make it to 85. Really not sure where they are getting that other than NAM but it’s hard to ignore Expand History shows more times than not the warm nose makes more progress than modeled. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:53 PM, eyewall said: History shows more times than not the warm nose makes more progress than modeled. Expand Do we ever just get models that can figure that out or do we focus on becoming multiplanetery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:53 PM, eyewall said: History shows more times than not the warm nose makes more progress than modeled. Expand So by that logic if no models were showing a warm nose in the area then mets would still forecast a warm nose somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:52 PM, StantonParkHoya said: The Mets in this area are so disillusioned it’s like they’ve been in the snow version of Guantanamo Expand On 2/18/2025 at 11:53 PM, eyewall said: History shows more times than not the warm nose makes more progress than modeled. Expand We’ve reached the point with coastal storms that we can toss models logic and science and just use a man made highway and be correct more than 75% of the time 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:50 PM, NorthHillsWx said: RAH mentioned in their 3:30 AFD they expect the mix line to make it to 85. Really not sure where they are getting that other than NAM but it’s hard to ignore Expand But even the last NAM run still showed almost 2.5 inches of snow for Raleigh, and it's been the most conservative all day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:55 PM, Brick Tamland said: But even the last NAM run still showed almost 2.5 inches of snow for Raleigh, and it's been the most conservative all day. Expand Take your slop and be quiet, Brick. 1 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:55 PM, NorthHillsWx said: We’ve reached the point with coastal storms that we can toss models logic and science and just use a man made highway and be correct more than 75% of the time Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:56 PM, StantonParkHoya said: Take your slop and be quiet, Brick. Expand You will have 0.5” of sleet and you will like it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:56 PM, StantonParkHoya said: Take your slop and be quiet, Brick. Expand 4 to 6 here, baby! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 11:55 PM, CaryWx said: So by that logic if no models were showing a warm nose in the area then mets would still forecast a warm nose somewhere? Expand By that same logic, Mets should have gone all in when every model was showing a historic blizzard a week ago? see how that works? Model data is not absolute. Common sense exists in forecasting too. Something models don't have. so yes, the warmnose always over performs in this set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/18/2025 at 11:33 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Last thing I’ll say about the major storm forum, if by your logic it cost us the storm, I’ll gladly sacrifice the 1.50” of ZR it was showing in RDU to watch DC and NYC lose 25” of snow and the subsequent board meltdowns. From the movie Moana “you’re welcome” Expand Are we really having a disco in a science forum as to whether the title of the thread will affect the outcome of this storm? 3 1 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 12:05 AM, frazdaddy said: Are we really having a disco in a science forum as to whether the title of the thread will affect the outcome of this storm? Expand Might be time for the obs thread to refocus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 12:05 AM, frazdaddy said: Are we really having a disco in a science forum as to whether the title of the thread will affect the outcome of this storm? Expand Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockyKnob Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/18/2025 at 11:53 PM, eyewall said: History shows more times than not the warm nose makes more progress than modeled. Expand We’ve had several events where models show the warm nose changing everything to freezing rain in Chapel Hill where we’ve stayed sleet, at least, so the warm nose is often over estimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/18/2025 at 11:59 PM, wxdawg10 said: By that same logic, Mets should have gone all in when every model was showing a historic blizzard a week ago? see how that works? Model data is not absolute. Common sense exists in forecasting too. Something models don't have. so yes, the warmnose always over performs in this set up. Expand apples & walnuts. Poor comparison, but I'll just leave it at that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 On 2/19/2025 at 12:05 AM, frazdaddy said: Are we really having a disco in a science forum as to whether the title of the thread will affect the outcome of this storm? Expand 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 According to the NWS winter weather graphics Durham has a 70-80% chance of more than 1 inch and a 10-20% chance of 6+ inches. I like percentages, but you also have to be able to read the map. Wral doesn't think you can. For those that missed it, this confirms that were f'd. Where am I on a Map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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