NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 08:41 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 08:41 PM HI RES NAM suffered some convective feedback or initialization issue. Look across the entire footprint of the storm into the Ohio valley, it uniformly cut precip everywhere. That’s not likely correct 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 08:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:42 PM Just now, NorthHillsWx said: HI RES NAM suffered some convective feedback or initialization issue. Look across the entire footprint of the storm into the Ohio valley, it uniformly cut precip everywhere. That’s not likely correct Hopefully it corrects back at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted Tuesday at 08:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:49 PM 11 minutes ago, eyewall said: As of now I am still planning on driving to Suffolk VA early tomorrow morning for the bigger amounts. Believe that area will be the best with this one. Swing by Al Forno's and grab some pizza. Probably nothing over 4" west of 95. Not expecting over 3" here in the far NW corner of the state. Be safe, and hope everyone can cash in on a snow day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherExperiment Posted Tuesday at 08:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:51 PM 37 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: No CLT posters even in here grasping at straws?! Maybe we can get lucky and overperform with an inch or two, but it seems we'll likely miss any potential front end thump as well as the coastal wrap up/any potential later banding. These snow maps are just all over the place. I see everything from nothing, to ice, to 1 inch, to 6 inches for the Charlotte metro area. This is definitely shaking me up like a snow globe. I'll just wait for the NOWcast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 08:51 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 08:51 PM It looks like convection along the gulf coast of Louisiana is what likely caused the changes you see in the NAM. This is one reason CAMs are not always useful in predicting precip amounts. Storm looked similar overall on 3k and 12k is on crack but it did go to rehab finally 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 08:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:53 PM 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: It looks like convection along the gulf coast of Louisiana is what likely caused the changes you see in the NAM. This is one reason CAMs are not always useful in predicting precip amounts. Storm looked similar overall on 3k and 12k is on crack but it did go to rehab finally I think the best thing with those runs was seeing the NAM finally join the party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 08:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:55 PM 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: It looks like convection along the gulf coast of Louisiana is what likely caused the changes you see in the NAM. This is one reason CAMs are not always useful in predicting precip amounts. Storm looked similar overall on 3k and 12k is on crack but it did go to rehab finally So what your saying, the GFS being a lower resolution model should do better with predicting the qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phelps Posted Tuesday at 09:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:01 PM 50 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: No CLT posters even in here grasping at straws?! Maybe we can get lucky and overperform with an inch or two, but it seems we'll likely miss any potential front end thump as well as the coastal wrap up/any potential later banding. Marginal temps, NAM barely onboard, Eric Webb tweeting about warm noses… what’s not to love! I’m sure we will get cancelled school and no snow. Whoops is this not the sanitarium? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 09:06 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 09:06 PM 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: So what your saying, the GFS being a lower resolution model should do better with predicting the qpf? Yes. A thunderstorm complex that may or may not exist can completely alter what a CAM sees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 09:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:07 PM Latest NWS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Tuesday at 09:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:11 PM Well now work is throwing in a wrench so I may not be able to chase to Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheels2 Posted Tuesday at 09:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:16 PM 4 minutes ago, eyewall said: Well now work is throwing in a wrench so I may not be able to chase to Suffolk Work sucks lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Tuesday at 09:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:17 PM Just now, blueheels2 said: Work sucks lol. Yes it sure does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Tuesday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:26 PM Mood 2 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted Tuesday at 09:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:28 PM 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Mood Right there with ya 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 09:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:31 PM Next time.. please don't add "major" to the thread title. Jinxed from the start... 3 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 09:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:31 PM 18z is not being very friendly yall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted Tuesday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:36 PM These models are only drying up over POTENTIAL Gulf convection.... something that we will not know until MAYBE 3-4AM tonight in Real radar. Take a peak at Wichita KS..... Forecast 1" ..... SO FAR 6-7" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 09:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:38 PM 30 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Yes. A thunderstorm complex that may or may not exist can completely alter what a CAM sees If the thunderstorms do exist, wouId high resolution be more accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Tuesday at 09:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:45 PM 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: If the thunderstorms do exist, wouId high resolution be more accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Tuesday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:48 PM GFs seems to be pretty locked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted Tuesday at 09:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:50 PM My “zone area forecast” from NWS for Hillsborough had been the same for about 24 hours, but just now changed to 2-4 inches for Wednesday night overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 09:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:52 PM GFS looks good around here. Keeps the ice south of Wake and has some more snow coming across Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 09:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:52 PM 3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: GFs seems to be pretty locked in. GFS has been the most consistent so far. Is it right? We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted Tuesday at 09:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:55 PM 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: GFS has been the most consistent so far. Is it right? We will see. Fish was bullish on GFS yesterday, saying it's been kicking the EURO around lately. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted Tuesday at 09:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:57 PM Be nice if the 18z GEFS can also have the 850s south of Wake county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted Tuesday at 09:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:57 PM Whoever escapes the warm nose will be the big winners. the warm nose in the carolina is equivalent to a stronger version of thanos with the gauntlet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 10:02 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 10:02 PM GFS looks fantastic here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted Tuesday at 10:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:08 PM I will take any kind of nose, the way QPF trending around these parts…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 10:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:09 PM We’re almost to nowcasting time. Enjoy the ride - folks down east! For the rest of you scoundrels in the upstate and foothills, whichever one of you pissed off Mother Nature and had her send us Helene and an a below average winter for temps with below average snow - REPENT! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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