GaWx Posted Tuesday at 06:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:17 PM 23 minutes ago, CaryWx said: The NAM looks like lots of mixing but maybe I'm not looking at the latest one. Yes, the 12km 12Z NAM does have a good bit of sleet along with 850s getting above 0C. But the 3km is several degrees colder at 850/never getting above 0C. The globals are similar to the 12km NAM in that respect. I think some sleet is possible but no ZR and mainly snow is what I expect as of now in RDU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Tuesday at 06:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:19 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Tuesday at 06:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:21 PM My updated call based on the second round becoming more of an issue: 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted Tuesday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:27 PM Wednesday A chance of rain and snow before 11am, then snow likely between 11am and 3pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. East northeast wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Wednesday Night A slight chance of snow before 7pm, then a slight chance of rain between 7pm and 8pm, then a slight chance of snow after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. East northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%. The above is from GSP. So my house. Raine and Snow...to rain...then rain and snow again. Then it stops awhile....then snow...to rain...back to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:27 PM 21 minutes ago, CaryWx said: The NAM looks like lots of mixing but maybe I'm not looking at the latest one. Check out how much colder is the 3 km vs 12 km 12Z NAM at RDU: 3 km: <0C at 850 at 4PM, similar to globals 12 km: >0C at 850 at 4PM, warmer than globals; it has a 2 mb stronger surface low and the low is quite a bit N of 3km position 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 06:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:28 PM 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Meanwhile, 12Z UKMET at RDU dropped back from the 2.1” of the 0Z run, to 1.5” on the 6Z and to 1.4” on the 12Z. The qpf on the 12Z is ~0.13”. It looks like to me that just about all of the precip at RDU will be snow per general model consensus. They both done bad with QPF over Missouri this Morning. Way lower than what has transpired. Joplin had 4 inches of Snow when the Euro had them at less than an Inch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 06:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:31 PM 9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Conservative Call. I'd go 8-12" NENC and SEVA. 3-6 Border Counties NWNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted Tuesday at 06:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:32 PM 3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: They both done bad with QPF over Missouri this Morning. Way lower than what has transpired. Joplin had 4 inches of Snow when the Euro had them at less than an Inch. Would love to be posting on the obs board Thursday morning this same thing 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Tuesday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:34 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 06:34 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 06:34 PM 1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said: Would love to be posting on the obs board Thursday morning this same thing We’ll probably add a nowcast/obs thread at some point this evening for tomorrow’s storm. That always gets me excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted Tuesday at 06:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:40 PM 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: Check out how much colder is the 3 km vs 12 km 12Z NAM at RDU: 3 km: <0C at 850 at 4PM, similar to globals 12 km: >0C at 850 at 4PM, warmer than globals; it has a 2 mb stronger surface low and the low is quite a bit N of 3km position 12z gfs looks like nam-12km as well with 850s up in northern wake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 06:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:41 PM 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: How's the mean looking now ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Tuesday at 06:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:42 PM Just now, Daniel Boone said: How's the mean looking now ? Weatherbell has crashed so I will let you know when I can get back in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 06:49 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 06:49 PM GEFS increased for central NC. Not much change in western areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Tuesday at 06:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:51 PM 25 minutes ago, GaWx said: Check out how much colder is the 3 km vs 12 km 12Z NAM at RDU: 3 km: <0C at 850 at 4PM, similar to globals 12 km: >0C at 850 at 4PM, warmer than globals; it has a 2 mb stronger surface low and the low is quite a bit N of 3km position Some of that is due to rates. The Higher resolution 3km can discern individual banding features where higher precip' rates essentially drag down the cold air from aloft. You can actually see bubbles of warmer air above the main 850 0C line on that 3km map above. Also the main mixing is going to come from around 800mb, slightly higher in elevation. My guess is you will need to be north of the Wake county line to totally avoid sleet. Even then it will likely mix in some unless we get some great banding, which could be possible if we can get this to trend a bit more phased like the NAM has been trending. I would love to see this phase a bit more at the tail end to extend this out a few more hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Tuesday at 06:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:57 PM Oxford to Roanoke rapids always seems to cash in on these coastal late phases, if anywhere in central NC, that's where I'd want to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM NAM is still spitting out some very damaging Ice accumulations south and east of FAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 07:14 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:14 PM 27 minutes ago, CaryWx said: 12z gfs looks like nam-12km as well with 850s up in northern wake Do you have a 12Z GFS 850 mb map showing this? I’d like to see it. At 3 hour intervals (based on cross checking Pivotal), this TT GFS 850 map (hour 30) is the warmest at Wake and 0C is almost as far S as the S Wake border leaving RDU at -1C: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted Tuesday at 07:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:19 PM Only thing I could see right now that could be a positive is maybe Low placement is off and closer to coast, something to keep an eye on future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted Tuesday at 07:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:27 PM 14 minutes ago, GaWx said: Do you have a 12Z GFS 850 mb map showing this? I’d like to see it. At 3 hour intervals (based on cross checking Pivotal), this TT GFS 850 map (hour 30) is the warmest at Wake and 0C is almost as far S as the S Wake border leaving RDU at -1C: Eric dropped this one in another place... It's also a mean at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted Tuesday at 07:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:28 PM 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Eric dropped this one in another place... Yep, holding that 1-1.5" for Raleigh proper due to this. Hope to be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Tuesday at 07:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:29 PM 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Eric dropped this one in another place... Thanks. However, this map is from the GEFS rather than the GFS. You mentioned the GFS and it is colder. You had said: “12z gfs looks like nam-12km as well with 850s up in northern wake” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 07:30 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 07:30 PM 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Eric dropped this one in another place... It's also a mean at 36 The op never came north of southern Wake. My analysis: it’s going to be extremely close and probably waffles over the city a few times. Northern wake is probably all snow, unless the NAM is correct 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Tuesday at 07:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:32 PM RDU: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King of Surl Posted Tuesday at 07:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:33 PM Looks like I am in for a good accumulation in my area just east of Roxboro. Shame as I am working down am working down at Ocean Isle until Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Tuesday at 07:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:34 PM 1 minute ago, King of Surl said: Looks like I am in for a good accumulation in my area just east of Roxboro. Shame as I am working down am working down at Ocean Isle until Friday Roxboro is the Buffalo of North Carolina. You’re always in a good spot. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted Tuesday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:38 PM 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: Thanks. However, this map is from the GEFS rather than the GFS. You mentioned the GFS and it is colder. You had said: “12z gfs looks like nam-12km as well with 850s up in northern wake” I stand corrected. It's an ensemble mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted Tuesday at 07:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:40 PM 20 minutes ago, Pilotwx said: Only thing I could see right now that could be a positive is maybe Low placement is off and closer to coast, something to keep an eye on future runs. We got to have something to hold onto, don't we? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Tuesday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:42 PM HRRR still not hitting on much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Tuesday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:42 PM WRAL UPDATED MAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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