strongwxnc Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 SREF:Still adding back to the foothills area . . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 5 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Still adding back to the foothills area . . Still looks like the sweetspot will be points E/NE of I-85...good time to visit Elizabeth City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 6 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Still adding back to the foothills area . . Yeah it is all going to ride on where the fronto band sets up here just north of the mix line. I hope you all get some of the goods as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Durmite Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I appreciate following everyone's awesome work and learning as I go. I feel fairly inadequate asking anything, but is there and idea of what time this stuff will start in the triangle? I'm trying to make sure my staff isn't on the roads. Thank you! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Yeah, I haven't read much about timing either. Interesting considering we're supposed to be 24 hours or less now, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, Durmite said: I appreciate following everyone's awesome work and learning as I go. I feel fairly inadequate asking anything, but is there and idea of what time this stuff will start in the triangle? I'm trying to make sure my staff isn't on the roads. Thank you! Looks like it will start by late morning. Probably best to just stay home and not have them come in at all. I say that because that is how we get people stranded even with minor snow amounts (snowpacalypse). That happens when everyone goes in and gets early release around the same time. 4 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 For Wake, looks like precipitation begins between 11-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The 12K NAM sucks, I mean it stinks as a model. But it does one thing exceptionally well: it sniffs out a warm nose like a freaking terminator. Based on this and based on the long-joked-about-but-still accurate-maxim, "trust the least snowy model" combined with the maxim that the warm-nose always overperforms: I "officially" predict that the 12K NAM will "win" and RDU south will have little or no snow. I hope I bust horribly and I get a snowball to the face tomorrow. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Meanwhile, 12Z UKMET at RDU dropped back from the 2.1” of the 0Z run, to 1.5” on the 6Z and to 1.4” on the 12Z. The qpf on the 12Z is ~0.13”. It looks like to me that just about all of the precip at RDU will be snow per general model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orange county Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: The 12K NAM sucks, I mean it stinks as a model. But it does one thing exceptionally well: it sniffs out a warm nose like a freaking terminator. Based on this and based on the long-joked-about-but-still accurate-maxim, "trust the least snowy model" combined with the maxim that the warm-nose always overperforms: I "officially" predict that the 12K NAM will "win" and RDU south will have little or no snow. I hope I bust horribly and I get a snowball to the face tomorrow. 2 inches of sleet would still be a "win" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I know this is the wrong thread but since so many are on it I had to say... don't look at GFS day 13. Blizzard lol. Of course I know it's very unlikely to happen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Euro does not have the second round nearly as robust as the GFS. Either way it is mostly snow for RDU with around 3 inches: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: That looks like it...maybe a little more along the NW Blue Ridge, with higher totals isolated into the NE. Wake area still looks to get a snowday, just not sure how much of that will be ZR/IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Brick, do you just post whatever Snow maps give you more (Kuchera or 10:1 ) lol 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Euro went NW and increased up this way to over 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrtsdsn Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 seems Charlotte is warm nose central hope we catch a break! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Brick, do you just post whatever Snow maps give you more (Kuchera or 10:1 ) lol Nah, I would post the Kuchera, but they don't have that for the Euro at that site. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Have the weenies messed up WxBell? Meanwhile, the 12Z GFS was interesting with accumulating snow just west of ATL tomorrow near and soon after sunrise. But admittedly that’s likely overdone and is an outlier, regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I've never been so excited about the 15Z SREF... It's rolling! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 7 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: I think the sweet spot in NC is going to be from 95 down to 64 to 87 to 40 and then up 501. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Is WXBell down for anyone else? It’s been that way for me for 1/2 hour+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I think the sweet spot in NC is going to be from 95 down to 64 to 87 to 40 and then up 501. Maybe push that east about 60-75 miles...but there will be a sweet spot, but IMO not there, but who knows...maybe the sweet spot will be in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 18 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I think the sweet spot in NC is going to be from 95 down to 64 to 87 to 40 and then up 501. The mix line is going to absolutely break hearts tomorrow especially if areas just north of it get enough moisture for a big snow. I could be tempted to up the triangle forecast to 2-4” (or even 3-5”) after seeing 12z guidance roll in if I was RAH but they have that mix in their back pocket to keep most of the area in the 1-3” range. If trends continue though I could see Wake upgraded simply bc all of those solutions, even the sleet, are highly impactful if the higher QPF is realized. And northern wake would probably hit warning criteria unless the 12z NAM warm nose isn’t on crack. I don’t think they have to blink until tomorrow morning though unless afternoon models keep increasing. It’s funny, the more QPF we get the trickier the forecast becomes bc the difference of totals in the mix vs non mix areas goes from like Tr-1/2” to 3” on one side or the other to 1/2-1” to 6-8”. The upper margin increases disproportionately 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: The mix line is going to absolutely break hearts tomorrow especially if areas just north of it get enough moisture for a big snow. I could be tempted to up the triangle forecast to 2-4” (or even 3-5”) after seeing 12z guidance roll in if I was RAH but they have that mix in their back pocket to keep most of the area in the 1-3” range. If trends continue though I could see Wake upgraded simply bc all of those solutions, even the sleet, are highly impactful if the higher QPF is realized. And northern wake would probably hit warning criteria unless the 12z warm nose isn’t on crack. I don’t think they have to blink until tomorrow morning though unless afternoon models keep increasing. It’s funny, the more QPF we get the trickier the forecast becomes bc the difference of totals in the mix vs non mix areas for from like Tr-1/2” to 3” on one side or the other to 1/2-1” to 6-8”. The upper margin increases disproportionately I still don’t see much if any mixing of non-snow precip in the RDU area. This looks like a classic practically all snow Miller A there imo (maybe just a little sleet). 850s look to stay safely <0C from what I’ve been seeing. You may even get a little higher than 10:1 ratios of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: I still don’t see much if any mixing of non-snow precip in the RDU area. This looks like a classic practically all snow Miller A there imo. 850s look to stay safely <0C from what I’ve been seeing. You may even get a little higher than 10:1 ratios of snow. The NAM looks like lots of mixing but maybe I'm not looking at the latest one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: I still don’t see much if any mixing of non-snow precip in the RDU area. This looks like a classic practically all snow Miller A there imo. 850s look to stay safely <0C from what I’ve been seeing. You may even get a little higher than 10:1 ratios of snow. You didn’t just watch the noon news on WRAL and it shows 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 SREF has less moisture for most western folks. About the same east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 @Brick Tamland I think you are sitting pretty for a 3-5” storm. That northern wake area east might be the jack. It’s hard to find any *decent* model besides the euro that doesn’t support that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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