StantonParkHoya Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Why the discrepancy in the two image outputs above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 If we’re relying on SREF plumes we’re cooked but I’ll bite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said: . Gives me six inches of snow. What is the SREF smoking? LOL. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: If we’re relying on SREF plumes we’re cooked but I’ll bite Hey man you know the deal. We want the model with the most snow. LOL 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 How does the spire model look lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 12 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: That's actually not the end of it. It does double from the previous run. I know got kind of happy and couldn't even wait until the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: How does the spire model look lol Does the DGEX still exist? lol. Probably show me getting 37 inches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: If we’re relying on SREF plumes we’re cooked but I’ll bite For me, I’m just looking at it as potential guidance for how the 0z NAM will look 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Like seeing the trends toward some better QPF for western half of the forum. Timing looks great with early morning onset, just need the moisture. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Looks like 2 distinct thumps projected by SREF with round 2 on Thursday being almost as good for many areas. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Looks like 2 distinct thumps projected by SREF with round 2 on Thursday being almost as good for many areas. That's the upper disturbance we have seen modeled I imagine 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, wncsnow said: That's the upper disturbance we have seen modeled I imagine Sref has the vort near the upstate Thurs morning so that would thump NC 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 @WXNewton props for keeping up with the trends and models. You have done well my apprentice 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Euro AI has ticked west for 2 runs now, no I don’t have the clown for it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 27 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Why the discrepancy in the two image outputs above? One is the SREF mean, while another is a single member that someone plucked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 Just now, calculus1 said: One is the SREF mean, while another is a single member that someone plucked out. If you’re not plucking out individual SREF members to post are you really living? 3 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 0z HRRR is running. Oh boy here we go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 SREF QPF over the last 3 runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Through 29 hours HRRR appears to be a tad slower than last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, WXNewton said: SREF QPF over the last 3 runs. Big change. Maybe our upper air network gave some updated data for 00Z? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 One is the SREF mean, while another is a single member that someone plucked out. One is the SREF mean, while another is a single member that someone plucked out.Here is the latest mean…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Some positive changes through 32. Our gulf low is a little stronger than last run and the precip field is a little more organized 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Big change. Maybe our upper air network gave some updated data for 00Z? No reason these small trends can’t continue on other models. Still PLENTY of time for small ticks each run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 28 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Looks like 2 distinct thumps projected by SREF with round 2 on Thursday being almost as good for many areas. GRAF from this afternoon showing that as well. Long lull, followed by another band sweeping through Thursday morning. https://x.com/daniel_bonds/status/1891609242559295680?s=46&t=BVabKZBl0JP2qfoqs7LgyQ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Hmmmm. Better tilt on this HRRR run… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 HRRR getting its act together at hour 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Hour 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I have to step back and remind myself every now and then that this isn’t rain. The difference between .1 QPF and .4 QPF isnt an egregious or wild jump to hope for with over 24hrs to go. And on the ground that’s the difference between a novelty event and a winter storm warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 HRRR looks more like a coastal bomb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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